Goldman Sachs Liu Jinjin: Pay attention to four investment directions, bulk consumption, scientific and technological innovation, new energy and state-owned enterprise reform

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Goldman Sachs Liu Jinjin: Pay attention to four investment directions, bulk consumption, scientific and technological innovation, new energy and state-owned enterprise reform

2021-12-01 06:05:56 18 ℃

Common wealth is a big question. We look for four important investment directions, bulk consumption, technological innovation, new energy and state-owned enterprises. In the industry configuration, we have 5 relatively optimistic sectors, which are automotive, consumer goods, media, e-commerce, semiconductors.

This article is made in accordance with Goldman Sachs 2022 China's macroeconomic prospects and capital market dynamic conference records.

For next year's global stock market, the main point of view we predict is that the returns of the major markets are 10%, mainly pushed by profitability.

With the expectations of global economic growth, the GDP will slow down next year, but the absolute value is high, and as many local monetary policies are normal, the valuation changes will not be too large. In terms of global market configuration, the overall comparison is optimistic about risk assets, optimistic stocks, high-equipped stocks, and to optimize commodities, cautious for bonds and corporate debts.

On this basis, as the valuation enters the up-regulation cycle, we believe that the overall stock investment of Hong Kong stocks and A stock will be highly equipped next year.

With the macro background, considering the adjustment of real estate, we believe that the growth pressure of corporate profit next year is relatively large, and the forecast increased by 7% year-on-year, lower than the current market 14% expectations.

01

China's market valuation will be improved next year

Next year, the stock estimate will rise significantly from a lower level. In general, in July this year, Overseas Listed Overseas stocks have lowered the neutrality, mainly for the response to regulatory policy adjustments and prospects. In early November, the prospects we released put over overseas launches from neutralization to high, while maintaining high-aspiration of A-share. We have 5 optimistic industries, automotive, consumer goods, media, e-commerce, semiconductors.

We predict that the market earnings increased by 7% next year. If the economic slowdown is fast, is it too optimistic about 7%? 7% is divided into two parts, income growth and gross profit margins. At present, gross profit margins have reached a historical low, and the profit margin is fully reflected, and the profit growth is still large next year.

In the past 9 months, Overseas stocks have entered the next stage that can be called "hope" in overseas China. There is a feature in this stage, the stock is not bad, but the driving force is not growing, but the increase in valuation. In the next year, the Chinese market may enter this "hope" phase.

Why will China's market valuation will increase in the next year?

First, from the perspective of policy, the macroeconomic policy next year is slightly loose compared with this year. From a global perspective, the main market in Europe and the United States is in the future, and we are in a normalization process, but we don't think there is a space in China. For example, in a fiscal policy, a real estate policy, there may be a little relaxation. Therefore, the marginal loose policy environment is conducive to stock valuation.

Second, there is also a "twenty major" convening next year, it is of great significance. From the historical data from 1997 to 2017, stocks were better in the previous 10 months, and the average return rate was about 30%.

Third, the regulatory policy has an important impact on overseas markets in the past year. According to the quantitative indicator, from October this year, the emergence of falling is reduced in the previous period, indicating that the recent supervision has decreased. At the same time, the supervision policy will be more transparent next year, and more information will give investors' analysis of policy adjustment on profit growth, valuation, which will cause the Internet sector to return to average from a relatively low level, appearing Marginal positive.

Regarding the raising, we have made the P / E ratio of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong stocks are 12.7 times, and A shares are 13.5 times. A shares have a low level in the past five years, with global stocks and US comparisons, the valuation is more attractive.

To put macro and policy perspectives, MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) China Policy Index is now 12.7 times, and there is expanded potential at the end of next year, the goal of the year is 14.5 times. On the rewards of the index, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index of 4,900 points, predicted that the end of next year will reach 5,500 points, the potential return is about 12%, the Hong Kong stock is slightly higher, the potential return is about 15%.

02

Global Investor A Shares

Through the position of $ 1.2 trillion investor, we can see that it is still a low level of 470 basis points, from a historical perspective, at a very low level. Divide 470 basis to three major markets, namely A shares, Hong Kong stocks, and the United States listed, A shares are high, but Hong Kong and China share are low, which is relatively abundant in north to north in the north. reason. At the same time, we have recently received a number of overseas investors on A shares, but also reflecting their interest in the investment of A-share investment.

I will talk about the expectation of the North China-Hong Kong Tongbei to the South. Now Northern and south-year-old stock market net inflow is $ 75 billion, and it is more than $ 5 million in the beginning of this year. Therefore, compared to this year, especially in north, $ 75 billion There is no consider MSCI to further increase the potential of factors. If this situation occurs next year, there will be net inflow of $ 6 million in stock markets in the liquidity in next year.

There is also a more interesting observation. If the real estate is gradually falling, from the perspective of the circulation, it is good for stocks. The income continues to grow, but the funds are not worthy of real estate, may be more stock, such as issuing new products or financing, fluidity will be very sufficient, which may be important in the next few years. 03

Optimistic 4 big direction, 5 sections

I just mentioned that more macro-views, what is the recommendation of the stock market strategy? Shares still maintain a recommended growth sector. Macro perspective, if the economic growth in next year is weak, the policy is relaxed, which is good for the growth of stocks, and its premium should be improved. On this basis, the stock market is looking for some areas of growth opportunities, especially those with policy hooks. We are very optimistic about the "common wealth" theme.

Common wealth is a big question, we have found four important investment directions in the stock market. First, bulk consumption. This benefits from the long-term development of common prosperity, because people's income has improved, and it is good for consumption. Second, technology innovation. How is wealthy? Grab the cake rely on science and technology development, this industry chain is very important, so we also look for some targets, including specializing special new and small giants are placed here. Third, new energy. This industry chain is very large, there are very many, we have selected a lot of attractive targets. Finally, state-owned enterprise reforms. State-owned capital is very important in the status. In the stock market, we also screened some state-owned enterprises, which may have high operational efficiency, the input is also high, and the investor is very nice choice.

In the industry configuration, we have 5 relatively optimistic sectors, which are automotive, consumer goods, media, e-commerce, semiconductors, which are sectors with better growth, and the valuation is relatively attractive. It is affected by the field of real estate, and the low-profile industry is mainly in the field of development and the industry with high sensitivity, including raw materials and banks.

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