Where is the investment direction of 2022?

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Where is the investment direction of 2022?

2022-01-15 06:06:24 22 ℃

Author: ALEX value finder often hear, which is more important to discuss, choose, and efforts.

As a positive young, hard work is certainly important, but it must be necessary to choose the right direction, choose right, and work hard half. The same is true of investment. From the nearly 10 years of global asset yields, it can be seen that the performance of assets is in the form of a manifestation. Last year, excellent gold + 25.27%, this year, the show - 3.41%. Last year, the bottom of the bottom of the bottom was - 21.51%, and this year's performance is preferably + 55.50%.

Asset performance is so frequent, if there is a forward-looking pre-judgment, it will provide more basis for our next investment. Just, the annual "2022 Bank of China Personal Finance Global Asset All the White Paper" is released. The "White Paper" is compiled by the China Bank Investment Strategy Research Center, starting from the global macro trend, and the top to bottom give a specific configuration recommendation for global major assets. The "White Paper" was first released in 2018. In the 2018 market, it is extremely low in the market. It gives the suggestion of the super-China asset. It is one of the asset allocation agencies that are optimistic about the 2019 market; the asset configuration given in 2020 Order: Right, gold, bonds, goods, global rights are superior to China's stock market, and the viewpoint is again market verification; in 2021, the global market is judging to "quality, the quantity is not high", and respond to market changes in time, 3 times fine-tuning, the professional and accurate multi-time majority were verified. The newly published 2022 "White Paper" may have a big guiding significance for our next year, a great guiding significance: global continuation recovery, policy gradually regression of 2021 global transaction main line around the main central bank's loose monetary policy And thus gave birth to inflation expectations and actual inflationary pressures, reflecting significant inflation logic. Under the development of developed countries such as developed countries, the excessive stimulus demand in the market has risen, and the epidemic situation is related to the "carbon neutral" related requirements to restrict the production end, limited to supply. Under the gap, inflation has become the market consistent expectations and the biggest consensus. Under the market is the bulk commodities represented by crude oil. In addition, economies in the global capital market are still in a loose state, especially in the Vietnamese market. Looking forward to 2022, "White Paper" is defined as a global epidemic disturbance, and the marginal impact is weak, and the policy is gradually returned. It is expected that the global economy will continue to recover, the United States is gradually tightening, and countries follower. China's consumption has a temperature and recovery, and the export growth will gradually fall. The liquidity will reasonably and abundant. The financial force will be appropriately advanced, and China GDP will be low-capacity before growth rate. The US economic growth or high is gradually falling, the Fed raising interest rates actually act or does not expect the market. The euro zone inflation is eased, and the recovery continues. Other emerging economies are expected to weaken, beware of external impact.

Ravens Assets China Stock Market - "Establishment of Future Trends, Future Prosperity" Harbor stock - "Transition and Valuation Return" is expected to be comparable to 2021 in 2022, but the structure is better, and the investment experience is better. Hong Kong stocks or will break long-term low valuation status, and the pricing power will eventually return. The above two judges that we are generally recognized. Policy perspective, benefiting from strong anti-vlotenia, China's economy will reply to developed countries, and policies also take the lead in responding. The Economic Conference is clear that the economic work must "steady words, steady demo", the meeting requests that all regions should take responsibility for stable macroeconomic economies, and actively launch policies that are conducive to economic stability, and policies forward. It is foreseeable that 2022 will be an annual economic building as a central year. The policy turns steadily, the liquidity is steady, and the company will drive the company's earnings growth and fall, and the adverse effects of fade economic fundamentals will improve the market risk preference. In addition, China's capital market will more assume the role of direct financing of enterprises, more and more important for economic development; resident deposits are irreversible to enter the market with funds; bank financial management, social security funds, insurance capital, pension and other incremental funds All are actively enterpristed; Northern Fund has become a new year in the new year, and continue to increase A shares have become a consensus. There are indications that the A-share market is still in a long-term good situation, and 2022 can be treated, but the quantitative expectation should not be high, still dominated by structural market. Need to pay attention to the main road of policy support, the core asset value plate can be backed by the fund, the investment experience of the fund product is better than 2021. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, it is extremely underestimated. Last year, it was the worst worldwide. Whether it was estimated or actual price, it has been overwrite, long-term unreasonable prices, also indicates more structural opportunities.

Some industries such as technology, medical, etc. After a large adjustment, after policy risks are fully released, the target of the same class has better investment value.

The stock is also actively refluxing Harbor stocks listed. The Shares of Shares will gather a number of high-quality listed companies in A shares, and the scarcity is still in; the summons of the South under Hong Kong stocks are steadily improved. trend. As a map of China's economy in overseas, Hong Kong stocks may have long been a very low valuation level, and the Hong Kong stocks in 2022 may have breakthrough. US stocks have decreased in 2022 years, mainly based on structural opportunities. US stocks This round of cattle started in 2009, and the valuation is currently in a historical high, and is also high in horizontal contrasts in other countries. After the global epidemic, US stocks increased from profit repair and loose policies, where liquidity is an important factor, and TAPER indicates that the policy is beginning to start, follow-up to the Fed to promote the normalization of monetary policies. The rate hike is expected to push the credit spread and the interest rate of the US debt, and further increase the risk of US stocks. Considering the US Fed Camera Choice, the Will Fed will fully consider the market if there is a configuration requirement for US stocks. On the basis of reducing the expected expected, in 2022, the medium callback is also configuring a good opportunity. Eurozone and other economies. The European economy is restored, and fundamentals have become a favorable support of the market, and you can focus on German stock market opportunities; Japanese stock markets have liquidity support, fundamentally good, and valuations still have advantages in other developed countries. Other emerging economies are relatively fragile, more susceptible to the impact of US monetary policy. And the resuscitation is different, and the performance will also differentiate. In a comprehensive view, "White Paper" is supermarked, Hong Kong stock, and other markets. In our point of view, it is more recognized by the "White Paper", an additional thing is Hong Kong stock. In 2022, the extremely underestimated state of Hong Kong stocks is unsustainable. The estimated regression process may bring more excessive benefits, it is worthy of attention. During the continuous downward of Hong Kong stocks last year, many investors were more accomplished by Hong Kong stocks, and many people have said difficult to persist. Here is the reason for premature intervention time, and there is also a factor in the rhythm of the Cozen and the excessive position. The current investors still have excellent, scarce quality assets of Hong Kong stocks, and cutting the meat is still unwise, it is recommended that you need more patience and wait for future Hong Kong stock values ​​to repair. Bond asset currency and cash, interest rate bonds, credit debt recommendations recommended. Focus on the debt: After 2021, the convertible bond values ​​are currently in the relative high level of historical position, which is expected to fluctuate in 2022 or will increase, overall, and the expansion of the expansion of the product. There is still support, but continue to rise is relatively limited, follow the minor and high-profile targets to find a coupon digging from the low valuation and the high-level gas target, it is recommended to exceed (recommended). Throughout the white paper, we have to emphasize the debt configuration. In the 2021, the exposed market performance is even stronger than the GEM, and it is best to perform in the main index of A stock.

The convertible bond market is still worth looking forward to in the 2022. However, this year's transfer market may have changed, and there is no debt under 100 yuan, and the valuation perspective is already in a historical high. For valuation is already higher, it is still necessary to pay attention to risk, more should track their stock's trend. The excessive source of overcome margins in the 2022 year is more excavation from coupons. Forex 2022 The world's major central banks will gradually withdraw from loose policies, but due to the uneven economic recovery of various economies, the central bank withdraws from the rhythm of the central bank, which will be reflected in the variation of various countries, and will also guide exchange rate changes. .

In terms of specific exchange rates, the renminbi continues the two-way fluctuation situation, the central pressure; the US dollar welcomes the raising cycle, the rise, the rise or will continue; the euro hike is expected to fall, the fear will continue to fall; the pound is not weak, and the bilateral fluctuations; The avoidance occasion is driven, the weak pattern is difficult to change; the high level of the Dollar; the Australian dollar welcomes. Configuration, US dollars, Australian dollar, RMB, GB, PA standard, euro, yen conservative configuration. Precious metal and commodity precious metals: The current market reflected 2022 US Federal Reserve policy interest rate is expected to exceed 2 raising rates, the trend of first-proof is the big probability path of gold and silver price fluctuations in the next two years, the landmark incident of its turning point It is probably that the Fed's first rate hike floor or the hike path is clear. The configuration is highly lowered. International oil price: It is expected to present a high-level shock, on the one hand, the epidemic still has obvious disturbance to crude oil demand, on the other hand, the main crude oil demand countries release crude oil strategy to continue to press the oil price, although OPEC + is not willing to increase production but oil prices In next year, there is no foundation that continues to rise, the probability will oscillate the high. The configuration is temporarily maintained as a low match according to the market trend. Summary overall "White Paper" starts from a macro, from top to bottom to look forward to the major class assets in the next year, both professional and detailed.