US stock variable

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US stock variable

2022-01-15 18:05:47 13 ℃

Beijing reported this reporter Luo Ji

In 2021 the last day of the world's richest Musk issued a "look bad" economic speech, predicted the economic crisis coming as early as in spring or summer 2022, will be the latest outbreak in 2023. This pessimistic remarks caused market concerns about the US stock market is at a high point.

Recently, the three major US stock index falling start to appear, although in January 11, 12 rebound, but the high point before the fall distance is still some distance, can form a V-shaped reversal temporarily uncertain. The news side and the macro side, the Fed "cut list" ahead of schedule, the US debt the long end of the interest rate up quickly, Wall Street pressure point of view popular for a time.

How hot again and again after rising US stocks market outlook? It became in 2022 the first open year investment community a hot topic. At the same time the US stock market volatility, A-share market also appeared continuously dropping, A-share market impact of US stocks will suffer? This problem also by domestic investors.

US stocks fall behind

In early 2021, Buffett letter to shareholders released in the classic phrase "Never short the United States" in 2022 or the beginning of the New Year has been tortured.

Since opening in 2022, with the publication of the minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting on interest rates the Federal Reserve, which released "hawks signal" (referring to tighten monetary policy) raised concerns three major US stock indices fell sharply. Among them, the S & P 500 since January 4 record high of 4818.62 points immediately turned down, not only fell that day, the next four days is falling, January 10 lowest dropping to 4582.24, down nearly 5% . The Nasdaq index from the lowest point on January 4 of January 10 fell to 15852.14 of 14530.23, down over 8%. Over the same period, the Dow Jones industrial average also dropped a row.

"Three K line changes in values," the investment community vibe sentence ridicule, although it contains ingredients joking, but when the market still reflects the continuous rapid decline in investor psychology to bear tremendous pressure occurs.

"This is a wash panic disc or bearish signal? Is going to stay? Brave bargain-hunting or liquidation playing?" US stocks falling for a few days, the Nasdaq 100 index held by the relevant fund investors are constantly asking questions on the social platform. With the underlying index turned up two days, it is a doubt this rally is a "lure more" effective or reverse? Some holders shouted, "Do not turn on the water, you have to run." But there are long-term bullish said they want to hold firm.

The US stock performance in recent days has been the approach of the investors, or are implied decision factor. On Wall Street investment social platforms, there is a vote on the "US stocks continued to fall, how do you see the trend of the follow-up", as of January 13 has reached 59,000 views times, the poll results show that investors who underestimate the rally point of view account more than 38%, investors accounted for 62% of views continued to fall.

A Wall Street investment has several years experience in investor told the "China Business" reporter, "Overall, the Fed's policies have a greater impact on the US stock market trend of late indeed, my follow-up investment strategy will consider this to some extent, an impact. but in the current market, there is the position temporarily increase or decrease the problem. at present, I still maintain certain leverage, because my 'safety cushion' high enough. Tesla, for example, my income has more than 700 times, short-term impact of the shock is not for me. "but according to another Wall Street investor said, investors have been by her side when (2021 in late November to early December) in the last round dropping warehouse explosion, her point of view has turned cautious.

Wind data show, the index, in the Nasdaq, from January 4 to January 11 closing stocks fell reaches 77, down over 5% or more to reach 35, reach down over 10% 7, the biggest decline in three stocks were down 13.64%, 12.52%, 12.04%. Quote change fell month has 70, more than 10% decreases in the 12. If we put a long time, nearly three months fell more than 10% of the stock are 18, down more than 20%, there are nine, the biggest decline in three stocks were down 59.36%, 46.75%, 36.33%.

Institutional point of view differentiation

Whether investors or institutions, the Federal Reserve reduced the table the issue is seen as a key factor affecting the overall trend of US stocks. January 11 Wall Street analysts believe that the rebound is more is that by the time Powell to attend the re-election nomination hearings "less hawkish" affected the testimony. For example, he said that the current problems on the table shrink the Fed has not yet made a final decision, and after raising interest rates and shrinking tables turned, US monetary policy will continue to keep pace with the growing economy, will maintain a moderate liberal and not cause excessive recession trend tight state. After Powell's speech, three major US stock indexes Dikaigaozou intraday V-shaped reversal.

Based on the above point rate hike, table may shrink, shrink the table point of anticipation, as well as reduced interest rates and long-term impact on the table of US stocks, the current agency who appear more obvious differentiation point of view.

The China Gold Corporation Strategy Team has started from classic theory and American historical experience, combing the relationship between currency and inflation, the consequences of the Fed "sharp turn", and believes that "the attitude of the Fed is also in the face of the high inflation situation in 2021. The change occurs, from thinking inflation is 'temporary' steering control inflation. If the interest rate hike 2 ~ 3 times, it cannot be low inflation. So the Fed is likely to cope with inflation. In this radical situation, US stock turmoil may increase significantly "Responding to the hometry of the Chief Investment Strategist of Standard, China Wealth Management Department, said that it is more worried about the problem of abbreviation, and believes that the abstormation is far more interest rates.

The media reports reported that according to Powell, the Fed will end the net asset purchase in March 2022, and then start clocking, and start closing the table later in 2022. At the same time, the Fed will tend to hold 2 to 4 FMC meetings to handle detained table details, then the guidelines for the abtenation process may be given in June.

The Golden Gold Corporation Strategy Team believes that raising interest and abbreviations do not necessarily bring future reversal and crash. "Because the current market is still very uncomfortable, the substantive impact of the abtenation and reduction is not necessarily large, more reflected in the market sentiment. Once fully account, the true impact does not necessarily More importantly, whether it is reduction, raising interest or abbreviation, whether it will cause long-term interest rates to continue the upside and the decline of the market, in fact, it is necessary to see the fundamentals of the time. Whether it is for US debt or US stocks Words, there is no sufficiently increasing policy in short-term, especially accidents, inevitably bring fluctuations, but the thorough reversal of medium-term trends should still look at fundamentals. Only from fluidity and monetary policy, liquidity and valuation The support will gradually decrease, the market has been profitable and valuable double drives have passed, more profit growth continues. In this process, the impact of no cash flow assets and estimated high sections will be relatively more Earlier. "

Zhang Yidong, the global policy analyst, the global strategy, also mentioned that the short-term impact of "US debt interest rate rapidly has near end, US stocks are expected to stabilize." In his opinion, 2022 years have rapidly upstream, whose short-term The sharp increase in the sharpness of January to March 2018, October and 2021, which caused a significant adjustment of US stocks, especially growth shares. Because the Federal Reserve is expected to turn to the Eagle School, the long-term interest rate of the US debt is rapidly high. However, with the recent US debt yields rapidly and US stock adjustments, the above expectations have been fully embodied. It is expected that the long-term interest rate of the US debt will be slowed down, and then turn to the shock and fall.

"The next risk point in the second quarter, the US substantive rate hikes and the resonance of inflation data may promote the 2% of the 10-year yield of the US debt, and the US stocks or once again faced great fluctuations. However, based on the long-term high debt pressure in the United States, the second half of the inflationary pressure is relieved, the 10-year US debt yield is limited in 2% of the time and space. "Zhang Yi Dong mentioned that the refertile, each time The interest rate will slow down, and the US stocks ushered in rebound.

Havens Chen Zunde, general manager with rich overseas market investment, analyzed from US stock valuation, "The previous US stocks have increased, and this fall is a short-term adjustment. From the valuation, Nasdaq 100 Index ingredients Among the more than 20 companies in 2021 performance have been disclosed, the median of PE is about 30 times, and the median number of PEs in the Nasdaq Composite Index is about 11 times, and it is not too high. So, It is expected that the adjustment amplitude will not be too deep. Considering the basic fundamentals such as Apple and other related stocks, I have a careful opinion of the US stock market. "

Hong Kong stocks are more likely to be affected

At the same time as the US stocks fell, the A-share market has also seen a large amplitude, and the market is worrying whether US stock sentiment is transmitted to the A-share market.

In this regard, Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyzer, chief macro analyzer of Zhongjin Company, believes that in 2022, the US shadow interest rate will be largely probably during the aqueous process of Fed 2022. "We have found that in terms of global stock markets, the sensitivity to shadow interest rates is: A shares, Hong Kong stocks, Dow Jones Index, European Stoke Index, Nasdaq. Relatively, China Unit, Debt, Significance to US interest rates is low. "

Zhang Yidong further pointed out that US stocks rebounded to rebound in short-term China assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. "Overseas interest rate hike expectations and the short-term impact of US stocks to China's stocks, especially Hong Kong stocks will weaken, and even with the stability of the US stocks, the risk preference improvements is conducive to the depth of the A-share and Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong stocks rebound, need China's steady growth The policy's sun shower, follow-up to China's first quarter focusing 'implementation and landing, focusing on the catalyst rebound in Hong Kong stocks, that is, financial data, especially credit and social data, financial and monetary policy, steady growth Detained, various sectors' actions of 'steady growth'. "