UBS analyst: In 2021, an innovation drug experienced "roller coaster", but it is still determined to be optimistic.

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UBS analyst: In 2021, an innovation drug experienced "roller coaster", but it is still determined to be optimistic.

2022-01-19 06:04:29 29 ℃

(Text / Zhang Yu Editor / Ma Yumei) In 2021, the pharmaceutical sector performance showed a strong in the first half of the year and the second half of the year. From the perspective of the year, the Medicine 2021 Shen Wan Pharmaceutical Biological Index fell about 5.73%, and the 14th day in 2022 fell about 3%, the market sentiment was more pessimistic.

However, compared with the overall pessimism of the market, the medical innovation industry still shows a better environmental atmosphere.

Recently, at the 22nd Duyin Great China Seminar Event China Medical Industry Outlook Special, Chen Chen, director and medical industry analyst, medical industry analyst, the first half of the year, in the first half of the year lies in innovative drugs Some companies in PD1 have also signed the License OUT agreement with the overseas pharmaceutical manufacturers. On the other hand, China's innovative drug companies have reported a particularly good clinical data, which jointly promoted very good market in the first half of 2021.

The market has fallen by the second half of the year, mainly, the first, the guidelines of CDE released anti-tumor drug development last year, "This will make everyone questioned that innovative drugs are not quorning, they will be subjected to certain control."

Second, some domestic innovations have got some bad clinical results in the process of the sea, and further deepened the pessimistic emotions of everyone.

For example, in December 2021, Wanchun Medicine released a company announcement, and the Application for FDA was rejected by the FDA. The explanation given by FDA's full reply [CRL) is: Pu Huabin combined with non-Grand Tower has reduced neutral granulocytes after chemotherapy, and the results of a single registration test are not sufficient to prove the efficacy, and the second phase is needed. test. It is not possible to approve the Punabalin listed in the United States. Affected by this news, Wanchun Pharmaceutical stock price fell 61.39%, and the stock price once set up new low.

Chen Chen said that another company produced IL-4R inhibitor, the clinical trial is good, but everyone in the secondary market feels that it does not have overseas competitors, so even if data is a successful test, it has reached the first priority The end point and the secondary end point, but the company's share price fell by 50%.

"There is also a company in our country to do new crown small molecular oral medicines, before Brazil's data is particularly good, announced the US data during Christmas, and found that the United States did not reach the Brazil as good data, and even said the medium data. Read is a failure, and now wait for the final data read, but we estimate that the probability may also fail. "Chen Chen said.

Various factors have led these innovative drugs to have some bad results in the outbound process, but also have a certain impact on the emotions of the secondary market.

Third, our national innovation drug leader now PD1 is based overseas through the Chinese data. The information delivered to the market is a lot of probability of success, but now due to Sino-US relations, the United States has a new drug to China. The attitude may be slightly changed, so the whole market is not optimistic.

Fourth, the US sanctions list, everyone will guess whether we will innovate companies and CXO companies will be added to this sanctions. "If you have been added to this sanctions, you will definitely don't play for innovative medicine companies." Chen Chen said.

Although the above reasons causing innovative drugs in the second half of 2022, it is very powerful in the industrial chain. Chen Chen said that the current time node is still optimistic about innovation. The main reason is that on the one hand, overall, its valuation is not expensive, there is no many virtual foam. Secondly, each home innovation drug company, CRO's fundamental surface has great improvement in the time node a year ago, and the cost performance is higher at this time node.

"Third, the data of the Chinese worried by everyone can not go out of the sea, in fact, representing a small part of the innovative drug company, most of the innovative medicine companies are now more and more, more and more clinical clinics, so They can use international multi-center data, including Caucasian data, black-breed data to declare, and the probability of FDA approval is still very high. "Chen Chen said.

Fourth, in the field of innovation, my country 's chased the situation in some emerging technologies is still stronger. "Like new crown vaccine, monocontrol, our country is now very small." Further, in cell gene therapy and double-resistant, especially in PD1-based double-resistant treatment of solid tumors. Our country's technology is leading overseas companies.