The US debt yield is rising to trigger the US stock tsunami "The anchor of the global asset pricing" has been thorough?

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The US debt yield is rising to trigger the US stock tsunami "The anchor of the global asset pricing" has been thorough?

2022-01-20 12:08:32 44 ℃

Fin Federation (Shanghai, editing Xiaoxiang) news, the first trading day after the US market, the madness of the yield of the US debt, has set off a new "tsunami" in Wall Street.

Since investors are concerned that the Fed will increase interest rates faster and more expensive, Wall Street has encountered dual kills on Tuesday. The bond market has once again become a guide that first detonated everything. The 10-year US government bond yield rose by 8.94 basis points to 1.880%, and the maximum level of nearly 10 basis points is once again reached in the highest level of more than two years.

The other cycle yields are also high, and the interest rate of the entire curve has increased by at least 6 basis, including the first five-year period - climbing more than 10 basis points all day. As of the New York Time, the 2-year US debt yield rose by 7.6 basis points 1.042%, the 5-year US debt yield rose 10.665%, and the 30-year US debt yield rose 6.79 basis points 2.93%. .

Since the beginning of the year, the 10-year US debt yield has risen about 37 basis points in two weeks, this climbing speed is even more horrible than the tide of the bond market last quarter. A historical statistics show that the opening of the 10-year US debt price is the worst time for at least 30 years.

And I have echoed that the sale of the bond market inevitably affects the stock market. As the yield of the US debt has risen sharply, the high-growth technological stocks that have large weights have been pressed, and the US stocks have also recorded the worst opening of 2016.

In fact, the 60/40 stock bond portfolio has lost a loss in 13 days in the 15 trading days since the beginning of the year, and Tuesday has recorded the largest single loss since March 2021.

The Nasdaq composite index fell 386.86 points to 14506.90 points, 2.6% fell, and the number of recorded high points touched on November 19 had been close to 10%, approximate technical correction area.

The market's wideness has continued to issue a red alert. Only about 32% of the NASdaq integrated index constituents are higher than the 200th average.

Even if the S & P 500 index and the road, the days are not good. The S & P 500 index fell 85.74 points on Tuesday, to 4577.11 points, the single-day decline reached 1.8%; Dow Jones Industrial stock average price index fell 543.34 points, to 35368.47 points, the whole day fell by 1.5%, for the biggest single day since November last year Decline.

The market began to speculate that the Fed made 50 basis points in March?

The US Fed approved earlier this month showed that the US Fed may raise interest rates faster than expected and began to reduce assets to slow inflation and solve the "very nervous" "very nervous" in the employment market. Since then, the US debt yield has continued to soar.

This week, although the Fed is already a silence period before January, many traders are still bold to the Fed more radical.

The interest rate swap market data shows that although the Fed's raising interest rates in March is still the most likely case of current, the traders are now expected to exceed 25 basis points before the end of March - given this month policy The meeting did not have any action, indicating that the trader is at least in consideration of 50 basis points in March. It is important to know that since May 2000, the Fed has never had a breath of interest.

At the same time, in a very short period of time, the number of random hikes that have now been priced to the end of the year will reach more than 4 times (25 basis points each time):

In addition, CFTC's latest position on Friday also shows that hedge funds have increased the size of the NPD in the European dollars to the largest level since December 2018. In the European dollar market, those structures can be actively demand for the options for the Rushing Fed to raise interest rates, and the volume is much higher than the normal level. The option of delivery in June is particularly popular - once the Fed raised interest rates at 50 base points at the March meeting, the option will be told.

In this regard, William Nelson, Chief Economist, who worked in the Fed, pointed out that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should hit 50 basis points in March to make a vaccination for the market. He said that before the Fed, he acts too slow, so you must prepare for faster tightening policies, and they should not let the market feel interest rates only.

BMO Capital Markets US Interest Rate Strategy Director Ian Lyngen said in a report that the market is expected to increase interest rates in March, even talking in advance, quantitative easing. He expects that FOMC's next week's policy statement, and the Powell press conference will pass more information.

"The anchor of the global asset pricing" has been thorough?

In the financial market, the 10-year US debt yield has always been known as the reputation of "anchor of global asset pricing". Nowadays, this over the past few years has always been a "anchor" that is strong in the end of the year. It seems that it is finally "loose floating".

At present, Economists investigated by Bloomberg's investigations expect that the 10-year US debt yield will rise to 2.13% of the product this year.

In fact, even if the 10-year US debt yield has risen sharply since the beginning of the New Year, the US debt yield is still in the abnormal extreme low level compared to the continuous explosive US inflation rate. Once the Fed officially enters a tightening cycle, it is likely to have a lot of upside space. Nomura Holdings Inc. The interest rate strategist Andrew Ticehurst said, "This year's interest rate market is the big theme, especially in the United States, should be higher yields and more flat curves, because the Fed's interest rate will be carried out. History shows that the 10-year US debt yield is unlikely to achieve peaks before the first rate hike in the tightening cycle. "

The team leading the Morgan Stanley Strategist Guneet DHINGRA also believes in the report on the weekend, and there is no time to buy a US debt. The re-pricing in the early years of this year suggests that the future rate still has a further high risk, because too many central banks are active or released action signals, which makes the traditional cross-market valuation metrics becomes less reliable. "

Dato strategists are currently more popular in the middle of the income rate curve, especially the 5-year-old transaction. The latest expectation of the 10-year US debt yield will reach 2.6% at the end of the year, and the 2-year US debt yield rose to 1.6%, and the actual rate of return is up to -0.1% in the 10-year actual rate.