Several major news!Looking down at the property market ...2022-01-21 18:03:27 38 ℃
Old iron, recent WeChat changed rules, pushing without time order, often have friends missing the article update. Set "View" as a star standard, or often click "watch", keep in touch, together!
Today, several important news have been sent, and I will give you a view by one.
Cut interest rate
Today MLF cuts treated by ten base points, it is obviously beyond the market expectations, everyone did not expect.
As early as death, I have already said that it is expected to continue to decrease, and the market has expected.
But at the time, I felt that I had to be in the first quarter, I didn't expect January, because the reduction rate of December 2021 was only one month.
So this action has several super expension:
First, the MLF interest rate is fast and super expension.
Second, the rate of interest is also exceeded. Market estimates, this market will release 250 billion funds, which is more than a near future.
Why is more expectations, there are two explanations:
1. Economic pressure is large, for steady growth needs, it is necessary to reduce interest rates to grow in a quarter of this year, and it is necessary to "open the General Assembly", before this, the economy will be held.
2. In order to cope with the Fed's raising rhythm.
Because this year, the Fed has released the rate hike requirements, once the US raising interest rate hike, you will cut interest rates, it will only drive the flow of hot money, so it is better to catch a few times before the Fed will be added, and the influence of the smoothing.
So after the interest rate is cut, the stock market, the property market is impact?
It is inevitable.
The stock market is floating today, but the capital market is a virtual economy. It is not necessarily money in various lines, but it takes time. Now it is necessary to transform upgrade, relying on hard core technology, not a year of two years, but a thing in ten years.
The stock market can only say that the long-term trend is good. In the short term, how much money is earned through the stock of stocks this year, most people are difficult, not to mention most or leeks.
The property market has achieved a bigger, the most clear will make the mortgage interest rate decline, the cost is lowered, and housing consumption is stimulated.
At the moment, the mortgage interest rate will be detached with LPR. Bank reducing interest rates can fall soon, there is no such thing as a grand interest rate, such as Suzhou, last year, still 6.1% last year, now the lowest can go to 4.65%, fastest 2 days lend, interest rate drop The speed is so fast, unexpected! !
In this way, it is 160 basis points, it is really fierce, who is still waiting for the camp.
In addition to Suzhou, many urban interest rates have been turned down.
The first set of winds in the wind is now the 4-word head, and the bank's friend tells me that Beijing Bank Ningbo Bank can achieve 4.95%.
Zhengzhou's first home loan interest rate maintained more than 6.37% last year, and some banks will now be 5.63% (still too high).
In August last year, the first interest rate was maintained at 5.85%, and this month dropped to 5.5%.
I think, want to pull housing consumption, the first home loan interest rate will fall to 4 words.
This year, I have dropped to the 5-word head this year, then 4-word head, then follow the LPR to 3, and LPR is still going down, because the economic growth is declining.
In the case, reduce the mortgage rate, so that ordinary people can buy a house to reduce the cost, and very in line with the "stimulating housing consumption".
More importantly, the mortgage interest rate is reduced by 1%, then the resident's loan expenditure can be reduced by 380 billion. It can release a large amount of disposable income to buyers. The stimuli of consumption is very considerable, and consumption has shrunk in the second half of last year. It is extremely important. It can be seen that it is necessary to reduce the mortgage interest rate.
In short, the property market will be greatly improved in the 2022 credit environment, which is undoubted.
The recent weekend, 70 city data in December came out.
Although the whole is mainly based on the main, it is also necessary to see a positive signal:
1. The number of urban decline is gradually decreasing, and the new housing prices have grown in the urban increase in the number of new housing prices have grown since May 2002.
2. The price of second-hand housing in the first line is negative, and the second-line city new house is narrowed.
Superimposed today's interest rate reduction and subsequent interest rate cut expectations, I think many second-tier cities will usher in Xiaoyangchun in 2022.
GDP 110 trillion 8.1%
In 2021, GDP 110 trillion, increased speed by 8.1%, but this is mainly due to epidemics in 2020, the base is too low, resulting in a large number of 2021 quarter, and the average is 5.1%, which is true level.
In the quarter, the results were very bad. The first quarter increased by 18.3%, an increase of 7.9% in the second quarter, an increase of 4.9% in the third quarter, an increase of 4.0% in the fourth quarter. A quarter fell than a quarter, so the central bank is anxious, and chooses to cut interest rates at the same time today, otherwise the GDP should drop further to 3 words.
How to look at this transcript. Still divided into three pieces.
Export: Very good, hit 90 points. The total value of import and export reached 6 trillion US dollars, because the epidemic situation is different, our epidemics and production capacity are fast, not overseas, weak production capacity, leading to overseas demand, our supply side is the first to recover, playing once Beautiful turning over.
Investment: Very general, play 70 points.
From the data, fixed asset investment increased by 4.95%, and real estate growth is 4.4%.
This is with the 2020 performance is completely different, we can take the lead out of the 2020 epidemic, in addition to exports, but also rooted in the infrastructure and real estate, real estate last year under pressure madness, has been completely drag on the overall economy.
Overall, the growth rate of investment contribution to GDP was dragged down the broader market.
Consumer: This play 80 minutes.
Mainly low to high before the first half very cattle breaking, click on the second half of the decline.
The first half of the consumer to pick up quickly, but a second half, enterprises of various problems, layoff pay cut everywhere, everyone serious lack of confidence in the future, a little money consumption downgraded.
Plus, commodities remain high this year, raw materials have gone up, resulting in a large number of consumer goods prices, but also can not afford the.
Development and Reform Commission recently sent me a text, I hope to promote consumption. This is because the second half  shrinking demand triggered.
I guess coupons around also been on the road, estimated that many people will receive the inner city to encourage consumption, engage in subsidies, leading coupons news.
This year's consumption, I also conservative, if not stimulate economic consumption in 2022, you can only return to rely on exports and investment, this year I predict a bumper year still investment and exports, must ultimately rely on real estate and infrastructure.
We should see the 2022 infrastructure projects have been launched one after another take the lead, it all can be found in the provinces of infrastructure investment projects.
Before I also have more confidence in the new infrastructure, but it now appears that foundation is weak, the old infrastructure is still not a small proportion.
Policies and infrastructure pressures ahead, real estate also depends in the first quarter, but there is no doubt, is bound to be better than the second half of 2021.
But I want to pull the infrastructure and real estate, turn on the water and cut interest rates on the essential.
Net births 48w
First put data. Data-born population in the past decade are as follows:
Net births (births - deaths) data as follows:
Net births hit a 60-year low of just 48W.
Obviously, this decline also exceeded expectations, indicating population growth momentum has disappeared. Tendency to form, it is difficult to reverse.
To see the back there is no effective stimulus policies, and tut ~
Look for the data there is a description:
Ning Ji Zhe said that in 2021 our country was born population decreased compared to the previous year,
A major reason is the number of women of childbearing age continued to decrease in 2021 15-49-year-old women of childbearing age to reduce about 500 million more than last year, in which the number of women 21-35 years old exuberant fertility reduction of about 300 million.
Second, the concept of fertility change, postpone marriage and childbearing age, fertility desire of young people is decreasing.
Third, the new crown epidemic to some extent, also delayed childbearing arrangements for young people.
You say very right. In particular, the epidemic does make some people delayed birth plan, if the epidemic eased, some data are normal rebound, but this epidemic does not know when it will end?
Many people say that the birth rate will affect the current price, I think this is a long-term factor, because you want to buy only 30 years after the birth of the house now, the impact is three years after the prices.
Now the main buyers are the 8090 generation, this generation of housing are not being met, the moment is still a shortage of housing structural, demand is still there.
This shortage is reflected in four dimensions:
1. a second-tier cities house shortage, surplus three or four lines.
2. a second-tier house shortage of good location, school district housing shortage, suburban excess.
3. mansion shortage, general house surplus.
4. The new premises shortage of new homes, old broken small surplus.
Shortage economy, to buy back the core, return scarcity is an important option to raise the standard everyone.
If the current birth rate decline in the mid to what's impact on housing prices?
Influential medium may be part of the value of the school district room, because the future is not so much the students but also to at least five years after the school district room or a short-term monetary policy and the main influencing factors, a good school district also lacks impact . In addition, some improvements will reduce demand, but I think it is also very limited.
Birth rate decline, more importantly, affect the entire fundamentals.
Because the young people are consumption-oriented before maturity will affect the overall domestic consumer market.
More importantly, this is a long-term factors, the future labor force after 20 years, once the fault is not then file the aging and more serious, aging population with medical standards improve, more and more long life, the social costs will be A significant increase.
Now, we have to do is cage for a bird, before this entity to complete the upgrade.
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