RMB exchange rate breakthroughs 6.34 Tart three factors support appreciation

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RMB exchange rate breakthroughs 6.34 Tart three factors support appreciation

2022-01-21 18:02:46 41 ℃

Newspaper reporters Haoya Juan Zhang Rongwang Shanghai, Beijing reported

China Foreign Exchange Trading Center show, January 18, 2022, the onshore renminbi against the US dollar rose 6.34 broken mark, the highest since May 2018 high. It is worth mentioning that the RMB exchange rate hit an intraday 6.3368.

About the reasons for the recent rise of the RMB against the US dollar, analysts said the dollar pullback, December 2021-than-expected export data and corporate foreign exchange before the Spring Festival is the main reason for the current round of broken bits of RMB appreciation.

The dollar index, the dollar index jumped banished a certain stretching action on the RMB exchange rate. CITIC Securities team clearly pointed out in December 2021 the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates announced inflation accelerated Taper and delete "temporary", while the policy rate forecast bitmap display all members are expected to raise interest rates in 2022 and has 12 members considered 2022 in at least three times to raise interest rates. In the overall bias "Eagle" argument, the dollar index fell back after once close to 97. After December 16, 2021 the European Central Bank to maintain three key interest rates unchanged, the Bank of England unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25% under the influence of the dollar index continues downward, and fell to 95.88. But with more than December 17, Fed officials issued a "hawkish" remarks, the dollar index rebounded to above 96.5. Looking ahead, interest rates are expected to dominate the game trend of the dollar index, along with the 2022 Fed rate hike expectations is getting stronger, the dollar index continued to stronger shocks or run.

High export boom of the appreciation of the renminbi also provide support. January 14, General Administration of Customs announced 2021 full-year and December foreign trade data. In dollars, in December 2021, export growth fell slightly to 20.9%, year on year growth of imports fell to 19.5%, the trade surplus expanded to $ 94.46 billion, the highest single-month high of surplus value; 2021 full-year history of foreign trade scale sex for the first time more than $ 6 trillion.

"Seasonal factors also played a settlement of the RMB exchange rate strong critical role." Ping An Securities research team noted that despite the trade surplus for the enterprise has brought foreign exchange earnings, but the company could not immediately be settled in foreign currencies into RMB. In general, before the end of the year to next year's Spring Festival every year, companies will strong settlement, in 2021 trade surplus of high growth can also enhance the company's settlement amount. Historically, banks on foreign exchange and an exchange rate of RMB has a good correlation between the end of 2021 the peak year settlement stronger, become the driving end of the RMB exchange rate appreciation of an important force.

A banking source also pointed out that as China continued to export overlay enterprise-than-expected foreign exchange support, leading to a continuation of the RMB appreciation trend.

CITIC Securities team clearly pointed out that the formation mechanism of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate from the central parity, the two major factors namely "the closing price of a basket of currencies exchange rate changes + 'point of view, after the Spring Festival falling demand for foreign exchange effects," the foreign exchange market supply and demand "for the RMB exchange rate weakened the impact of the dollar index corresponding to the RMB exchange rate will gradually return or, after the holiday contest the yuan or face current account surplus and the strong US dollar index two factors; follow-up point of view, my country's export growth in the second half or faces fall risk, foreign exchange or return the balance, the dollar index or the impact of the RMB exchange rate will return to dominate.

January 18, 2022, People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Division of Sun Guofeng in the 2021 financial statistics news conference, the RMB exchange rate movements affected by market supply and demand, international market trends, and many other factors, the market supply and demand play against the RMB exchange rate formation decisive role in the change of RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by the market, not only might appreciate, it is also possible devaluation, increased flexibility, two-way volatility.

Looking to 2022, the year the RMB exchange rate, Ping An Securities research team believes that the international balance of payments support to weaken the RMB exchange rate will make the correlation re-enhance the RMB exchange rate with the dollar index, while in 2022 the dollar index is still subject to US economic recovery and the Federal Reserve for a hike, so bring some pressure on the RMB exchange rate. As of December 31, 2021, the dollar index has rebounded back to 95.97, and since 2015, "8.11" exchange rate reform, when the dollar index in this position, the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate are within the range of 6.65 to 7. If the follow-up to support the balance of payments of the weakening US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is likely to move this section.

Sik, chief economist Lian Ping Investment Research Institute said that in 2022 the RMB against the US dollar may show two-way volatility between 6.2 to 6.7, fluctuated running posture. His analysis, my country's monetary policy steady tone, in the Central Economic Work Conference keynote steady growth in early 2022 a number of policies favorable domestic economic fundamentals, which will support the yuan toughness. But a series of factors will generate RMB devaluation pressure, especially at the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy to speed up when the dollar index strong bias, the yuan or the dollar index will return to reverse resonance situation.