Prophecy that China has problems due to population decline, so abrasion rate

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Prophecy that China has problems due to population decline, so abrasion rate

2022-01-23 18:03:31 49 ℃

[Wen / Jiang Shilong Translation / Observer Network Ning]

In 2021, China's latest social economic data showed that the annual population birth rate was 7.52 ‰, slightly higher than the population mortality rate of 7.18 ‰, this shows that China is about to enter the population.

China is developing rapidly, but it is not a rich country. However, carefully studying China's data can also be optimistic, and will be inspired by comparing China and South Korea's higher education levels.

In China and South Korea, the recent economic success is accompanied by a fast population structure. South Korea's total fertility rate is 0.92, that is, the number of women's average fertility children have dropped to 0.92, which is far lower than the 2.1 fertility rate required for maintaining population replacement levels.

In the 1960s, South Korea's summary rate accompanied by the peak of economic growth, and the average number of fertiles per female was about 5, but since the early 1980s, he fell below the population.

The population under the age of 14 accounts for 44% in 1962, and today, today's share is slightly higher than 12%, the world is third low, only higher than Singapore and Japan. At the same time, the per capita life expectancy increased from 55 years old in 1960 to 83 years old in 2018, which makes the population over 64 years in 1960 increased from 16% of 2020. Aged population proportional growth proximity index. Since last year, Korea's total population enters long-term reduction stages.

China's population and economic changes, approximately 20 years later than South Korea. Since the 1980s, China promotes family planning policies.

China 's population structure is started in the late 1960s, and it is necessary to change the economic structure. In the mid-1960s, Chinese young people accounted for 38% of the total population, and today is 18%. The population over 65 years old is about 3% from the 1960s, an increase of 12% of 2020. China's life expectancy increased from 1960 to 73 years old in 2019, the increase is about 20 years old, slightly lower than the growth of 25 years old in Korea, but China's old population proportionally in the same increase in index.

South Korea has entered high-income countries in the mid-1990s after over 35 years of high growth. About 30 years later, South Korea continued to invest in higher education, allowing approximately 70% of young people accepted higher education. This influence is very affected, and South Korea's high education sectors are the world's most aging impact.

Every year, high school graduates are reduced, and in the middle of this century, only half of the 385 colleges and universities in South Korea can survive. Although some regional agencies have begun to close, Seoul also retains most high education institutions. The high education department will merge under capital, and the pressure of competitive academic posts will increase.

China is different in China in China, and the situation will vary. The coastal city such as Shanghai will face a similar population issue in South Korea, with a total fertility rate of 1, with a per capita life of more than 80, about 16% of the population over 64 years old. Shanghai's young people have accepted higher education, which has been approximated the national level of the OECD. Shanghai High School graduates reached peak in 2007. Like Seoul, students in the country are competing into Shanghai universities.

But most Chinese young people are not in Shanghai, but in the countryside, the education level of coastal cities has reached peak 10 years ago, and the education level in rural areas is much lower. Like Guangxi, Guizhou, Qinghai, Yunnan, high school graduates and college students are growing, even if the total population is declining.

In June 202, I participated in the college entrance examination in Guiyang. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

In other words, there is also a gap in the demand for higher education. To this end, China recently announced to invest 10.7 billion yuan in colleges and universities in the Midwest. These colleges will be committed to modern industries, cutting-edge technology, artificial intelligence and public health, similar to Germany's application technology college or the American processor.

Therefore, although China began to agize aging before wealth, South Korea appeared almost simultaneously in the wealthy phase. For China's situation, although the total population declines, not only may have increased per capita human capital, and the total human capital may also grow, while the higher education sector still has potential. As the population declines, with higher education atrophy, South Korea's total human capital may decline.

As Kenes said in 1937, "If we are careless", once the population grows, the total demand, the decline in total savings and capital accumulation will come. To avoid this kind of "careless", we must not only transcend the linear analysis of birth rates and mortality, but also focus on long economic and demographic relationships, that is, the impact of population on economies.

China is the world's second largest economy and main development engine, and the only country in which family planning is implemented in decades is important. Another fact that there is no precedent is that China's long-term development plan is more concerned about the impact of population on economies in decades.

In short, predicts that China will have a problem due to a decline in population. It is necessary to understand how the propagation and low population growth affects the economy of a country, and it is necessary to carefully study the impact of the country's special population on the economy. China and South Korea have entered aging, but due to the different conditions of higher education demand and supply, there is still important difference in the results.