European Central Bank President Journey Dasworth: We are different from the United States, don't need to raise interest rates.2022-01-25 00:04:30 44 ℃
On January 21, the European Central Bank President Lagad, Japan's Central Bank, Handan Dongyan, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President, Georgiva, etc., gathered in the World Economic Forum (also known as "Davos Forum") In the last day of the Forum, the Global Economic Outlook of the Forum shared their views on the country's economic economy, as well as judgment on future monetary policy.
Recently, the 10-year Default Income Rate has been in the first time in May, since the May 2019, after the Fed's Bank of the Fed, all sectors have followed whether other central banks will follow. Quite interesting is that the two sectors of the European, Japan, seem happily in the relationship between "清" and the Fed's position, said that he did not urgently tightened, the conditions of interest rate hike were not satisfied.
The Fed's current probability will raise interest rates 3 to 4 in 2022, and the quantitative tightening is also expected to open in the third quarter, and the US stocks have recently started the risk plunge mode. Even more traders mentioned the reporter, "When Powell became the face of the eagle, we feel that Lagard may be betrayed, after all, she still hopes to be the first economic recovery, but at the same time inflation It is a big political pressure. "
Lagard said in the forum, with the United States, the demand in the euro zone is not surprising, the needs of the United States have exceed 30% of the epidemic, but the Eurozone is just the level before the epidemic, and the euro zone and the United States are not synchronized. No action is taken synchronously. At present, the core inflation rate of the United States is as high as 5.5%, and only 2.6% of the Eurozone.
"In December, the overall inflation rate of the Eurozone recorded 5%. This is indeed an unprecedented history. How long? "Lagard said that 50% of inflation may be caused by an energy crisis. At the same time, the epidemic has brought shortages of supply, such as the lack of truck drivers, and supply chain bottlenecks continue. But she believes that energy prices will tend to ease in 2022, the shortage of truck drivers, bottleneck problems, etc. will improve.
Lagard also mentioned that it is necessary to pay attention to salary trends, because this is one of the key factors that trigger the continued climb of intermediates. "We have not seen the stress of the salary negotiations in the Eurozone, so inflation will continue to be out of control."
Lagard clearly stated that the conditions of the current interest rate hike were not satisfied. She said that there are three conditions in the raising interest rate - first, it is necessary to see that the inflation rate reaches 2% before the end of the predictive period; second, inflation should continue to stabilize in the target level before the end of the forecast period; third, the actual inflation rate should be available Stable in the medium term in 2% level. These conditions may mean that the Eurozone will usher in a transition period whose inflation is slightly higher than the policy goal.
"If we are satisfied, we will certainly have to act (raise interest). We have taken some actions before, and will end the Epidemiological Emergency Assets Acquisition Plan (PEPP) in March." She said, in April, Europe The central bank's bond purchase pace will slow down from about 80 billion euros per month to 40 billion euros, and gradually reduce bond purchases to 30 billion euros from July, starting from October to 20 billion euros. "After the end of QE, we will judge whether other tools need to be used, including interest rate hikes." But the interest rate hike may not be a matter of Ragad needs consideration in 2022.
In the past few decades, Japan who has been plagued by general shrinkage has not been urgently tightened. Huda Dongyan said that Japan has increased the GDP forecast of 2021, 201222, which is 2.8% and 3.8%, "But Japan is only 0.8% in December last year, far below the US (7%) and the Eurozone. (5%). After the economy is restarted, Japan's demand recovery is lagging behind; Japan has maintained a certain supply capacity to deal with demand; the Japanese is still more cautious, and the normalistic mentality of 1998 ~ 2013 is still playing "
Honda Dongyan said that it is expected that Japan's 2023 inflation rate will still be around 1%. Low. "
Gloriyeva said that "The Global Central Bank responds to this epidemic, the central bank and the finance department are actively responding to prevent the global economy from falling into another decline." But she believes that it is 2022, differentiation It has become a keyword - the Fed is more actively tightening monetary policy because inflation has triggered economic and social concerns. While fighting inflation, you must pay attention to how to maintain economic recovery. In the face of the global debt of $ 226 trillion, Gloriyeva also called on high-debt countries to pay attention to the extension, or solve the problem of monetary mismatics.
In addition, she also believes that the most critical economic policy in 2022 is actually the relevant policies of the epidemic. With the pressure of epidemic restrictions, the pressure brought to the economy seems to have exceeded the benefits, and the relevant countries may need to re-evaluate epidemic prevention policies.
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