The Fed chairman strengthens the random rate of interest rates to expect "Eagle" attitude what is the impact of my country's division exchange market?2022-01-27 12:04:08 45 ℃
Fin Federation (Beijing, Reporter Zhang Xiaoyu) News, Wednesday, Fed, Powell, said that the Fed will increase interest rate in March. He also pointed out that improving the space of interest rates and does not exclude raising interest rates at each federal public market committee (FOMC) meeting.
The financial market is more intense, and panic is exacerbated. The US East January 26 closed, the Dow Jones index fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq index gains to 0.02%; 10-year US debt yields upstairs 9bp to 1.86%; the US dollar index rose 0.56% to 96.5.
US debt yield or up to 2%, it is still not ignored to the global market outflow effect
Market people said that compared to a round of tightening process, this wheel is shortened, and the time interval of the rate hike and the time interval of the closing table may be shorter. During the Touring of the Federal Reserve, the US debt yield as a risk-free interest rate, which continues to suppress other financial markets, and still needs to be wary of US financial market fluctuations and its spillover effects on the global market.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist, said that in 2022, in the context of the Feds of Feds, it or hoped that the 10-year US debt interest rate reached approximately 2.3%, and there is still 40-50bp upstream space, but not It should be regarded as linear, need to be alert to the global market fluctuation risk caused by the large fluctuations of the US debt interest rate.
Huatai Securities Quality Zhang Jiqiang team also said that if the subsequent Fed is further accelerating, or the market is reflected in the market for terminal interest rates and the pricing table, the US debt yield may further up to 2%. This means that there is no risky interest rate to the US stock estimates may continue, and the liquidity environment of US stocks is still unfriendly.
Market people said that the highest point of subsequent US debts may be up to 2.0% -2.1%, and the domestic 10-year national debt yield may drop to 2.6% -2.7%, and China and the United States are still further narrow, and there may be interest rates in China. But the amplitude will be limited.
The US dollar rebounds the RMB appreciation space is limited, and the A shares will have improved
Overnight Fed, the Fed, the federal state, once again triggered the US dollar index rose. Market people said that the impact of Ukrainian tension and the expectation of the Fed raising interest rate hike, market risk avoidance is further warmed, and the US dollar index will continue to go up. Under the support of the RMB exchange rate, the demand for market resilience is still high, but in the short term or the gradual contraction of the demand in the Spring Festival, the overall appreciation space is limited.
For A shares, market people believe that the potential risks of US stocks have not been completely released, and it is expected that the future will still be disturbed to the domestic stock market, but the A shares have been adjusted nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, and most of the risks have been released. It is better to improve.
Luo Zhiheng, Vice President, Vice President of Guangdong, believes that after it is expected that the economy will continue to rise, the economy will stabilize, the domestic market is superior to debt, and the risk preference is gradually repaired. A shares will also open rebound.
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