可 蓝 多 q Q4 net profit "Confucius", cheese rod development or bottleneck

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可 蓝 多 q Q4 net profit "Confucius", cheese rod development or bottleneck

2022-01-28 12:07:18 43 ℃

2021 wonderful blue and blue (600882.SH).

Member of the dairy giant is a big shareholder of a wonderful blue. Formally enter the Miao Niu's era, start to accept the sweetness given by Mengniu, such as Mengniu promises to inject the cheese related business into a blue.

The president of Mengniu, Lu Min, Zeng Zeng, "Mengniu and Miao Blue Multi-Target Not just do China cheese first, but also to make big cheese market, believe in the combination of Mengniu and Miao Blue, the future must be a hundred Yingying collection scale. "

Under the trust of the righteousness, Miao Kee is expected to have a significant growth in 2021 net profit. However, according to the current year data predicted, Miao Cai Blue is two in the fourth quarter of the loss and earnings.

The product of the main product "Cheese Rod" gradually appeared in the ceiling, "Miao Ke Blue" will be forward?

Q4 net profit is confusing

On the evening of January 26, Miao Cai Blue Multi-published announcement, preliminary calculation by the finance department, is expected to achieve net profit attributable to listed company shareholders to 180 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 136.26% to 203.76% year-on-year; It is expected that the net profit of 2021 is 120 million yuan to 160 million yuan, an increase of 169.24% to 258.99% year-on-year.

Among them, 2021 amortization shares payment fee of about 130 million yuan, if the impact of this fees, Miao Ke blue and net profit of 270 million yuan to 310 million yuan.

Miao Ke Blue pointed out in the announcement that net profit increased from the same period of the previous year, mainly because the sales of cheese products increased the increase in business income. "During the reporting period, the non-public issued stock raised funds were completed. With the increase in capital strength, Miao Ke Blue further strengthens capacity construction, and the problem of insufficient production capacity is effectively solved; at the same time, continuously promote product development, channel expansion and market Promote, continuously improve the core competitiveness of products, channels and brands, and the main cheese product revenue continues to maintain growth. "

Specifically, in the first three quarters of 2021, a total of 1.43 billion yuan, according to the Miao Blue Multi-year-old net profit range, Miao Ke Blue's fourth quarter net profit is unstable, possibly Loss loss.

"Single four quarters, it is expected that Miao Blue has achieved net profit - 3.35 million yuan to 36.65 million yuan, last year is 6.41 million yuan, realizing the net profit of $ 4.294 million to 17.06 million, the same period last year is 5.14 million Yuan. "CITIC Jianota pointed out in the development report," Four-quarter, Miao Blue and more fast-temperature cheese sticks new shop, single season income increased by three quarters. Due to the earlier Spring Festival, in order to seize the festive market and gift box Putting promotion, increase advertising, marketing strength leads to increased sales costs, dragging down the fourth quarter profit. "

"The net profit in the fourth quarter is unstable. It may be that the profit will be released in the first three quarters. The fourth quarter should deal with some annual issues, such as bad debts, impairment, etc., the net profit in the fourth quarter may be phase It is more than some other quarter, but the specific situation still has to see the annual report of the audit. "There are people who have been close to Miao Blue and many people say that" from the overall industry industry, 2021 is not as easy to operate, cheese The brand increases, leading to the market price war, so it will have some effects on the company, and there will be reactions on the report. "

Dairy expert Song Liang told reporters: "Miao Ke Blue has achieved growth and channels. The product is related. Channel, Miao Blue is more than the original channel system, solves the contradiction between some factory, at the same time, Opening up a three-four line market, reducing the negative impact of the price war. It launches normal temperature cheese, functional cheese, such as the product. "

"Miao Ke Blue's performance is also related to the high price of the product," Dairy expert Wang Ding cotton said: "Miao Ke blue is through the adjustment of the taste, and the increase in the consumer group, but the population birth rate is year-year year. Decline, children are limited to the total amount of the consumer body. At the same time, many companies such as Biji Fu, Yili, Junlebao are also robbing this cake, and the blue is more pressure. "

Bottleneck

Dairy industry threshold is relatively low, even new products just launched, there will be similar products in a short time, such as low temperature fresh milk in the past two years, various types of yogurt and ice cream are already highly homogeneous. Product.

Every business is looking for the next trend, the wind, and the unique profit point.

Cheese, a old product with complete Western characteristics, refurbished in the past two years, enters consumers in the form of "cheese bars". This type of product is accompanied by a popular advertising in the market, becoming a popular product in 2021.

The extremely high heat makes the "hunter" gather, the brand swarmed, and again "cheese stick" has become a homogeneous product, and the market is rapidly seized, some brands have low-cost promotions in 2021, kick off the price war.

At the time, Miao Ke Blue said: "About the price war, the company's attitude is very clear, the company will stick to the bottom line, never initiative to launch the price war, and the company also expects the industry to go quickly even in the future, hope is healthy and benign Development, maintain a reasonable price. "

The "price war" will be differentiated competition.

It is understood that domestic cheese market is mainly divided into ready-to-eat, family use, and catering channels. Miao Ke Blue 2021, the cheese business totaled 1.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year. Wang Ding cotton told reporters: "The yelling cheese stick is mainly for children, although there are also introduced into human products, the cheese rod is not the mainstream product of cheese market." Song Liang also told reporters that the cheese is currently concentrated in the meal field.

Miao Ke Blue Dragonfly Heavy dining business in the fourth quarter of 2021, but in July 2021, it established a constant temperature department in July 2021. In September, it can be seen that the Miao Blue and the center of gravity is still in the cheese stick business. And you want to seize the market by differentiated cheese bars.

However, it is not only a blue and more than one, Yili, Jionao, Junle Bao, the shares of the shares, is launching a normal temperature cheese rod.

Dairy practitioners told reporters that the cheese industry has got some achievements in recent years, so the size of the industry has begun to compete for the layout, and the industry's growth has exceeded the demand growth, so it has caused price war, at the end of 2021, Miao Blue Multi-class Some companies have made a low-temperature cheese market, and there are now the rooms of normal temperature classes, and some companies have begun to follow up.

According to the above, the normal temperature cheese will still have some markets, but the normal temperature is still in the bottleneck, but the normal temperature products are now starting to enter the market, and they are expected to have a 2nd to 3 years of development.

Ping An Securities Investigation shows that the cheese industry is in the ascending, and the normal temperature products are new windows in the market. The emergence of Changwen leisure cheese solves the three major categories of development pain, will release more than 100 billion market space. First, the channel breakthrough, the low temperature cheese is required to be refrigerated, and it is impossible to promote a large area of ​​the whole channel; the second is that the scene breakthrough, the consumption scene of the low temperature cheese is relatively single, the consumer can enjoy delicious, anytime, anywhere; three is the market breakthrough, low temperature cheese is currently The main layout in the first line market, the three or four lines or even the fourth line market has a big gap.

There is also a dairy practitioner who is unwilling to tell the reporter: "From the nutritional point of view, if you want to get nutrients from the cheese, it is not recommended that children eat cheese bars, the cheese stick is very small, this may become a honey One of the reasons for the future development. "