Don't bet the RMB to continue to depreciate unilaterally!The China Banking Regulatory Commission has a heavy voice, focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic market

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Don't bet the RMB to continue to depreciate unilaterally!The China Banking Regulatory Commission has a heavy voice, focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic market

2022-05-14 18:11:25 14 ℃

On May 13, the China Banking Regulatory Commission held a recent market operation ventilation meeting. At the meeting, the current economic and financial fields such as financial support for the real economy, the development of the banking insurance industry, the development of financial anti -corruption, the development of commercial pension, the development of the RMB, and the situation of inflation A response.

The CBRC emphasized that since the reform and opening up, especially since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the development of my country's financial industry has achieved worldwide great achievements. With the rapid growth of enterprises and residents' wealth, my country's financial assets have achieved leapfrog development. Taking the total assets of banking financial institutions as an example, at the end of 1990, it was only about 3.5 trillion yuan, 18.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2000, and 95.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2010; at the end of 2021, it reached 345 trillion yuan. Coupled with the insurance and securities industry, the total assets of all financial institutions have exceeded 38 trillion yuan.

At the same time, the risk of financial anti -corruption and disposal was advanced. Resolutely investigate and deal with the corruption of risks and chaos, and severely punish various types of supervision and criminal crimes. With the significant increase in financial anti -corruption and chaos, the atmosphere of "strong supervision and strong supervision" in the financial field is being formed. A number of major cases of the market that had a harsh market had been investigated and punished. A group of corrupt elements who colluded with officials and merchants, the conversion of interests, and illegal embarrassment were ropeed to the law, and one of them was the staff of the financial management department who "risked to self -theft".

"Since 2021, Liaoning in the heavy and disaster area of ​​financial risks has adopted control and criminal compulsory measures on 63 small and medium -sized banks. Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a total of 630 cases have been established within the CBRC system. 73 judicial organs. "The relevant person in charge of the CBRC said.

Since the beginning of this year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has put steadily growth in a more prominent position, further strengthens supervision and leadership, further promotes the structural reform of financial supply -side, strictly adheres to the bottom line of no systemic risk, increases counter -cyclical regulation, continues to improve the service real economy Quality and efficiency. The relevant person in charge said that in the next step, the China Banking Regulatory Commission will actually enhance the political, people's nature, and autonomous controllability of finance, strive to stabilize the macroeconomic market, urge bank insurance institutions to increase and improve financial supply, strengthen financial services in key areas, continue to promote promotion Banking institutions have strengthened bad disposal.

It will focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market

In the first quarter of 2022, bank insurance institutions served 10.2 trillion yuan in real economy incremental funds through loans, holding bonds, insurance funds, trusts, and financial management. Among them, various loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan.

The quality of credit assets remains basically stable, and the risk compensation ability is sufficient. At the end of the first quarter, the non -performing loan ratio of commercial banks in my country was 1.69%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The preparation is relatively sufficient, and the dialing coverage rate is relatively good. The capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks was 15.02%, an increase of 0.50 percentage points from the same period last year.

Although the economy began in the first quarter, it entered April. As the epidemic exuded more, the downward pressure on the economy was further increased. What is the situation of financial support for the real economy? In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the Banking Regulatory Commission said that the data in April was statistics due to the impact of the epidemic. In order to be able to grasp the situation earlier, we have strengthened monitoring and research and analysis in the early stage. From the perspective of monitoring, three characteristics are clear:

First, the first four months of loans continued to grow. In the first quarter, the RMB loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan, which will continue to grow in April.

Second, the support for the real economy represented by the manufacturing industry has been further increased. In the first quarter, manufacturing loans increased by 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.5 times the same period last year. Support will continue to increase in April.

The third is to support the reduction of the cost of physical enterprises, and the loan interest rate is steadily reduced. The survey learned that in April, the average loan interest rate of the new enterprise, the average loan interest rate of inclusive small and micro enterprises, the average loan interest rate of private enterprises, and the average loan interest rate of the manufacturing industry remained further declined.

According to the CBRC, the CBRC will continue to resolutely implement the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the general tone of the work of steady progress, effectively enhance the political, people's and autonomous controllability of financial, and strive to stabilize the macroeconomic market. Welcome the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China with excellent results.

Specifically, one is to urge bank insurance institutions to increase and improve financial supply, accurately support the construction of major projects in the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan", the implementation of major national development strategies, innovate green financial products, and strengthen support for rural revitalization.

The second is to strengthen financial services in key areas, improve the quality and efficiency of financial services in small and micro enterprises, promote the reasonable decline in comprehensive financing costs, promote the implementation of bank insurance institutions to implement the "Notice on Strengthening the Financial Services of New Citizens", and ask for new citizen groups. And related key areas and industries injected "financial live water" to continuously promote the market -oriented and diversified third -pillar pillar pension financial product system.

The third is to continue to promote bank institutions to increase bad disposal. Encourage large banks with higher levels of preparation levels to reduce the preparation coverage in an orderly manner, and timely dispose of the risk of deposit volume. Encourage high -quality financial institutions to explore the risks of small and medium -sized financial institutions through mergers and reorganizations in accordance with the principle of marketization and rule of law, and increase the financial system to serve the real economy level.

Give play to the role of the "main force" and strengthen financial services for small and micro enterprises and new citizens

The first four months of loans continued to grow, and large banks have fully played the role of helping to prevent and control the epidemic and the "main force" of economic and social development. At the end of the first quarter, the balance of various loans of large banks (legal persons) was 8.606 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.29 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year, an increase of 464.851 billion yuan year -on -year.

At the same time, the credit structure is further optimized. First, manufacturing loans continue to grow rapidly. At the end of the first quarter, the balance of loans of large bank manufacturing industry was 9.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.56%over the beginning of the year. The second is the significant increase in green credit. At the end of the first quarter, the balance of green loans of large banks was 10.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.12%over the beginning of the year. The third is to serve the strategy of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization. At the end of the first quarter, the balance of inclusive loans of large banks was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.19%over the beginning of the year.

The relevant person in charge of the CBRC said that the next step is to guide large banks to continue to deepen financial services of small and micro enterprises and strengthen financial services for new citizens.

Among them, in terms of financial services of small and micro enterprises, we must continue to maintain support for small and micro enterprises, guide large banks to work hard to increase the proportion of small and micro enterprises' first loan households, and reasonably adjust the loan structure of small and micro enterprises. Large banks will add a new inclusive small and micro enterprise loan this year to reach 1.6 trillion yuan. The number of newly added small -scale corporate legal persons throughout the year was higher than the previous year.

Data show that at the end of the first quarter, the loan balance of the six large -scale bank inclusive small and micro enterprises was 7.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 850.4 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, an increase of 13.1%. The average interest rate of the newly issued inclusive small and micro enterprise loans was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the average interest rate in 2021. In the first quarter, a total of 91,000 newly added small and micro -enterprises, an increase of 20,000 more than the same period last year.

Encourage banks to do a good job in the continuation of the extension of the principal and interest payment policy to help stabilize employment. Further promote the "Borrowing and Return" model, actively follow up the financing needs of small and micro enterprises; coordinate the exhibition period, reorganization and other means, and independently negotiate loans to repay the principle of interest payment in accordance with the principles of marketization.

In terms of strengthening the service of new citizens, large banks are required to strengthen product and service innovation according to the principles of marketization and rule of law, and target new citizens' financial needs in key areas such as entrepreneurship, employment, housing, education, medical care, and pension.

Commercial pension finance enters the fast lane and will pilot pilot savings

In recent years, as the third pillar of my country's pension insurance, commercial pension financial services have developed into the fast track.

According to the Banking Regulatory Commission, in accordance with the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on the development of the third pillar pension insurance on the development of the third pillar of pension, the China Banking Regulatory Commission carried out pilot product innovation pilots, promoted the development of professional pension financial institutions, and steadily promoted the reform of commercial pension and financial finance. At present, commercial insurance with pension attributes has accumulated long -term pension funds for the people for more than 4 trillion yuan. The innovative commercial pension finance pilot has achieved obvious results, and important phases of commercial pension financial reform and development have achieved important stage achievements.

Among them, exclusive commercial pension insurance and pilot financial management pilots are good. In June 2021, six large insurance companies officially launched an exclusive commercial pension insurance pilot in Zhejiang and Chongqing. The exclusive commercial pension insurance adopts account management, which is easy to insurance, flexible payment, and stable income. The long -term locking of funds is used for pension, supporting consumers to receive pensions for a long time or life after retirement.

At the same time, enterprises and institutions are allowed to provide payment support for new industries and new business practitioners in appropriate ways. As of the end of April 2022, a total of 120,000 insurance insurance policies had been completed, with a cumulative premium of nearly 900 million yuan. Among them, new industries and new industries such as courier and online car drivers have insured more than 15,000 people.

The relevant person in charge of the CBRC also stated that the CBRC will learn from domestic and foreign experience, prepare innovative business pension management business with distinct pension attributes, provide individuals with pension financial planning and long -term fund management services, and will pension planning, account management and finance The combination of products will provide customers with professional pension consulting services and financial solutions to meet consumer differentiated pension needs, and strive to conduct pilots from some pension insurance companies as soon as possible.

It is worth looking forward to that after pilot financial management pilot and personal pension account, pilot savings pilots will soon be launched, which will further enrich the development of multiple types of commercial pension financial business from insurance, public offering asset management products to bank deposits.

The relevant person in charge of the CBRC revealed that in order to further enrich the supply of the third pillar pillar pension financial product, the China Banking Regulatory Commission is working with the People's Bank of China to launch a pilot pilot of specific pension savings. Specific pension savings business takes into account the inclusiveness and pension nature, the product period is long, the income is stable, and the principal and interest are guaranteed, which can meet the pension needs of low -risk preference for residents.

"The preliminary intended to be piloted in some cities in some cities. The pilot scale of a single bank was initially considered as 10 billion yuan, and the pilot period was tentative. Zero deposit and rectification and storage zero are three types. The product period is divided into five, 10, 15 years, 15 years, and 20 years. "The person in charge said.

Short -term callback of RMB exchange rate is a normal market response

Affected by many factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the rapid rise in US debt yields, and the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index, some major currencies in some emerging market countries and many developed countries have recently depreciated. Da waited, the RMB has also recently fallen.

Regarding the significant decline in the recent RMB exchange rate, the relevant person in charge of the Banking Regulatory Commission Policy Research Bureau believes that the RMB exchange rate fluctuations are still in a reasonable range, the overall performance is stable, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will not continue for a long time. "The short -term decline in the RMB exchange rate is the return of the average value of the renminbi after a period of time since last year. The exchange rate callback is a normal market response." The appropriate application of the international and domestic situation will help release external pressure in a timely and effective manner, help stabilize foreign trade and increase long -term capital inflows, suppress capital outflows, and better play the role of the international revenue and expenditure automatic stabilizer.

The person in charge believes that in addition to the official reserve of 3.1 trillion US dollars, my country's folk foreign exchange assets can play a "reservoir" function for secondary reserves. At present, the foreign exchange market transaction is rational and orderly. Under the adjustment of the exchange rate price leverage of "low buying and selling", the rational trading model of "Extinction of high foreign exchange and dips" is also conducive to the impact of smooth cross -border capital flow.

From the perspective of the investment value of RMB assets, the person in charge believes that the current return on investment in China and have strong decentralized investment value for international capital. It is an important investment direction for the diversified reserves of the central bank in the world. my country's inflation has maintained a relatively low level. The actual value and return on investment in assets are much higher than that of developed countries. Global investors need to allocate Chinese assets. The current cross -border flow of capital is in progress, and the overall mildness and balance.

"In short, the short -term fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate are mainly affected by market emotions. The long -term trend is mainly determined by the fundamental aspects. As the reform continues to deepen and the opening of opening up, the Chinese economy will still have huge growth space, per capita GDP and economic total economy. The quantities will have greatly increased, which provides a strong foundation for the internationalization of the RMB and the strengthening of the renminbi. "The person in charge said.

In addition, for participants in the foreign exchange market, the person in charge reminded that whether it is individual or enterprise, whether it is domestic or overseas, do not bet the RMB to continue to depreciate unilaterally, otherwise it will suffer unnecessary losses. In the past 30 years, many companies and residents have suffered a lot. To form a reasonable market expectation according to the situation of the camp, the change of funds, or other actual needs, the lock -up rate of the exchange rate is to preserve the duration of the hedging period. In the face of exchange rate fluctuations, banking institutions can provide support for enterprises through a variety of products, such as duration, long -term, drop -off, options and other exchange rate avoidance services, to provide Foffting and factoring trade such as foreign trade accounts receivables Financing services will transform the company's future accounts receivable into the right time cash income, indirectly realize exchange rate risk management, provide enterprises with rich foreign exchange trading currency and cross -border RMB settlement services, and help enterprises save exchange costs.