Valuation Repair strong rebound in May ushered in the pharmaceutical market?

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Valuation Repair strong rebound in May ushered in the pharmaceutical market?

2022-05-15 00:08:39 21 ℃

Reporter Gu Mengxuan Xiaxin Guangzhou Beijing Beijing Report

Recently, the long -lasting pharmaceutical sector has shown a strong money -making effect, and the pharmaceutical sector has continued to strengthen. Multiple pharmaceutical sectors have increased significantly in individual stocks.

On May 10 and May 11, the biomedical sector rose two days in a row. On May 11th, the concept of the new crown therapy set off a daily limit. In addition to the continuous daily limit of Xinhua Pharmaceutical and China Resources Shuanghe, the 100 billion market value listed company Fosun Pharmaceutical also rarely daily limit. The daily limit is 20%); CRO (contract research organization), pharmaceutical business and other pharmaceutical sectors are also active.

"Recently rebound reflects the clearing of negative emotions." Cathay Fund Company said in an interview with the China Business Daily that the impact of policies such as collecting collection and other policies on the stock price of the pharmaceutical sector has been fully reflected. At present, the entire pharmaceutical sector valuation level basically returns to the lowest level in 2018 and is also an absolute low in history.

The growth of the pharmaceutical sector

According to Wind data, as of May 10, 376 of Wind Medical Care 456 stocks have obtained a positive increase in the past week, accounting for 82.5%. The stock price of the secondary market rose by more than 30%of the stocks, and more than 20%of the stocks. Among them, Tonghe Pharmaceuticals rose the highest increase, 42.31%, and Huayang Medical, Dali Pharmaceutical, and Yongan Pharmaceutical rose 36.97%, 33.23%, and 33.17%, respectively.

Zhuang Hongdong, the cheese fund manager, believes that the current A -shares have signs of bottoming and rebound. The pharmaceutical sector has been relatively high in each plate from high to the present. Stocks are abound, and investment is relatively high.

Liu Baichuan, a researcher at the Research Department of the China Rong Fund, analyzed that there are two main reasons for the rebound of the pharmaceutical sector: one is that the valuation is already at the bottom; the other is that the performance of the pharmaceutical industry shows strong toughness.

Specifically, Liu Baichuan pointed out that the pharmaceutical industry has launched a rebound since April 27. On April 26, the pharmaceutical industry PE (TTM) (rolling price -earnings ratio) was in 17%of the division since 2009. Medical equipment and medical services The valuation of the child industry is at a low level since 2009.

From the perspective of performance, Liu Baichuan pointed out that the listed company's 2021 annual report and the first quarter report of the 2022 have been disclosed. The performance of the new crown testing and other sub -sectors has increased significantly. The upstream and CXO of life sciences remain high. Strong growth momentum.

New crown testing company has increased performance growth rate

It is worth noting that in the first quarter of 2022, the performance of the new crown test reagent reagents increased rapidly, and the overall performance growth rate of the medical device sector was raised.

Relevant annual report data show that in the first quarter of 2022, the new crown test agent's stock stock Jiu'an medical income end increased by 6646.79%year -on -year, and the profit end increased by 37527.35%year -on -year; Anxu's biological income end increased by 2763.42%year -on -year, and the profit end increased by 3147.87%year -on -year; Oriental Biological's income end in the first quarter increased by 112.28%year -on -year, and the profit end increased by 74.2%year -on -year; Wantai Biological increased by 284.85%year -on -year in the first quarter, and the profit end increased by 360.18%year -on -year.

Various fund companies also ambush in advance. According to Wind data, in the first quarter of 2022, five funds increased their holdings of 60.833 million shares, of which 31 funds were increased by 606,600 shares; The total holdings of 11 Cathay Fund to increase the holdings of Anxu Biology for a total of 779,800 shares; the total of 2.1329 million shares of oriental biology in 25 funds, of which 913,600 shares of the Cathay Fund's 9 funds were increased; Thousands of shares, of which two funds of China Business Fund increased their holdings of 760,100 biology.

Relevant persons of Cathay Fund said in an interview with reporters that the entire industrial chain of the new crown, including vaccines, nucleic acid testing, and antigens. The future market space will be relatively large. The performance is expected to boost.

However, Zhuang Hongdong believes that after the early order and performance of the new crown test agents have risen, a number of great rise in bull stocks have risen. At present, it has basically reached the fishtail market. Therefore, production capacity has also expanded rapidly, and revenue and profits have exploded. However, as more and more companies participating, the prices of new crown testing products are close to the cost price. Although revenue and orders are still there, the profit of the company is It has disappeared quickly, so it is still a pseudo -proposition in the field of new crown test reagents. "Zhuang Hongdong said.

Wang Tieniu, director of the Ji'an Jinxin Fund Evaluation Center, also believes that the strong concepts are still mainly stimulated by short -term news. In addition, due to national requirements, the new crown nucleic acid reagent and detection unit prices have dropped sharply, and the competition in the new crown -related business market has intensified, which will have a negative impact on individual stock profitability.

Du Zhengzhong, a researcher at Tianxiang Investment Consultant, also believes that the performance of the new crown antigen testing company is still expected to grow, and such fields may still usher in a strong heat in the short term. The possibility of sudden decrease. "Opportunities are greater than risks

After the significant adjustment of 2021, is the pharmaceutical sector adjusted in place, and how will the follow -up market be interpreted?

Du Zhengzhong pointed out that since 2022, the medical service sector has fallen by 25.19%. From the perspective of historical PE, at present, the valuation of the medical service index is 16.57%(the price -earnings ratio of the entire sector is lower than 80%of history), and it is lower than the time of more than 80%). "From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical sector has gradually appeared in investment opportunities."

Fan Jie, Manager of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that from the current valuation level, the valuation level of most leading enterprises in the pharmaceutical sector has returned to a reasonable range with configuration value. She predicts that the performance of the pharmaceutical sector in 2022 will exceed 2021. At the same time, investment will become scattered, and more performance is individual opportunities rather than sector market.

Geng Yitao, a researcher at the Star Financial Research Institute, has remained relatively optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector. He believes that at present, most of the valuations of most bids have been fully digested except for some varieties related to epidemic speculation and have the foundation of rising. "However, the short -term probability of the industry has no comprehensive favorable catalytic. In the future, it will mainly focus on differential structural conditions."

Liu Baichuan pointed out that in the context of the normalization of the epidemic, it is expected that new crown -related testing, vaccines, drugs, and medical infrastructure are expected to continue to emerge. "The consumer medical field affected by the short -term epidemic may usher in the valuation repair. At present, the pharmaceutical industry is at a low level of valuation. We believe that opportunities may be greater than risks."

Relevant sources of Cathay Fund pointed out that the long -term logic of the pharmaceutical sector is very solid. First, the pharmaceutical sector is the target of aging benefits. As aging deepen, the expenditure of the pharmaceutical sector is exponentially increased. The degree is high; second, medicine is still a target that benefits from consumption upgrades, especially in terms of medical services, vaccines, targeted medicines, etc. These two logic have been established for a long time. "From the perspective of long -term investment, the current pharmaceutical sector is a time worth layout."