Heavy!In April, the incremental increase in the social integration fell below trillion, and the central bank rarely voiced like this!What is the meaning of M2's growth rate back to double -digit number?Is the economic inflection point?

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Heavy!In April, the incremental increase in the social integration fell below trillion, and the central bank rarely voiced like this!What is the meaning of M2's growth rate back to double -digit number?Is the economic inflection point?

2022-05-15 06:07:30 49 ℃

Driven the disturbance of the epidemic in April, the new credit social federation data in April was cold in the short term, but the economy is expected to usher in the turning point of recovery.

On May 13, the People's Bank of China announced the financial data and social financing statistics in April. The growth of RMB loans in April has slowed down significantly, reflecting the recent shadow of the epidemic in the real economy. Data show that in April, RMB loans increased by 645.4 billion yuan, which was equivalent to 20 % in March, an increase of 823.1 billion yuan year -on -year; the scale of social financing increased by 91.2 billion yuan, 946.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

The central bank rarely explained the single -month data on the significant cold encounter of credit agency data. The relevant person in charge of the central bank said on the same day that recently, the epidemic and Ukraine crisis led to increasing risk challenges, and the complexity, severe and uncertainty of my country's economic development environment have increased. At the same time, we must also see that there are many strategic favorable conditions for the development of my country. The economic volume is large and the room has a wide range of rooms. It has strong toughness and large -scale markets. The long -term good fundamentals will not change. In the next stage, the People's Bank of China puts steadily growth in a more prominent position, increases the implementation of stable monetary policy, better exerts the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, accelerates the implementation of policies and measures that has been introduced, actively planned planning Increased policy tools, support economy operations in a reasonable range.

Many analysts also believe that the decline in financial data in April is in line with expectations. The negative impact of recent epidemics on economic operations is short -term, and the economy will gradually enter the repair channel. With the recently introduced a new round of steady growth measures for multiple departments, the economy is expected to recover the inflection point. Correspondingly, effective financing needs will gradually recover.

Effective financing demand under the impact of the epidemic declines significantly

The year -on -year increase of new credit, and the contraction of social merging, all reflect the impact of epidemic on economic operation and effective financing needs. Among them, the scale of the incremental increase in the social financing fell below 1 trillion again in April. The last monthly increase was less than 1 trillion yuan in February 2020.

The central bank's response does not avoid the dilemma of current insufficient financing demand. The relevant person in charge of the above stated that the growth of RMB loans in April in April has slowed down significantly, and the year -on -year increase is more, reflecting the further impact of the recent epidemic situation on the real economy, the shortage of factors such as stacking elements, and rising raw materials such as raw materials. Enterprises, especially small and medium -sized The difficulty of operating the micro -enterprise industry has increased, and the demand for effective financing has declined significantly.

Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of the Everbright Securities Securities, told a reporter from the securities Times · securities firms that the epidemic and Ukrainian crisis led to an increase in risks facing economic operations. These challenges have been particularly prominent in the recent period. Some enterprises have fallen into trouble or even pauses, and their intention to expand financing has not strong. It has caused imbalance between the credit supply of financial institutions and the financing needs of the real economy. There are more main reasons.

From the perspective of the new credit structure, corporate and resident loans have increased less year -on -year. Among them, residents' loans were particularly weak. In April, residential loans decreased by 217 billion yuan, an increase of 745.3 billion yuan year -on -year, which increased less than 6 consecutive months.

Yang Chang, the person in charge of the policy group of the China -Thailand Securities Research Institute, said that residential loans are relatively weak, which shows that the market demand side of real estate is still low. On the other hand, consumer loans that do not include housing loans in April decreased by 104.4 billion yuan, an increase of 186.1 billion yuan year -on -year, or roughly corresponding to short -term loans. The year -on -year increase was further expanded from March Essence

However, the sharp decline in the new credit social integration in a single month does not have to be overly interpreted, which is too pessimistic. According to the relevant person in charge of the central bank, from the perspective of financial statistics in April, finance's support for the real economy is stable. At the end of April, the growth rates of broad currencies (M2) and social financing were 10.5%and 10.2%, respectively, and both maintained a higher level of more than 10%. In the first four months, a new loan was added 8.9 trillion yuan, which was a high level in the same period of history. From January to April, the interest rate of corporate loan was 4.39%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25 percentage points, remained at the low level since the statistical record.

"We don't recommend excessively paying attention to the monthly credit data. When the changes in the growth of credit growth should be properly stretched out. In addition, the bank's adjustment of the rhythm of credit release has further increased the upper and lower of the single -month data." Zhang Xu said.

The growth rate of M2 returns to the double -digit number, the fiscal currency effort is significantly effective

Although the effective financing demand has declined significantly in April, the results of the recent stable growth of fiscal currencies have continued to appear, and financial data in April has also been reflected. As of the end of April, the broad currency (M2) increased by 10.5%year -on -year, with a growth rate of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last month and the same period last year.

M2 growth returns to double -digit double -digit support with the support of fiscal policies. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that the growth rate of M2 at the end of April exceeded expectations, mainly due to three reasons. One was that the reduction in the rally in April would help increase the number of currency multiplications, thereby strengthening the currency derived effect. Second, fiscal policies are actively developing. In April, fiscal deposits increased by only 41 billion yuan, an increase of 536.7 billion yuan year -on -year. Third, M2 last April M2 increased by 8.1%year -on -year, formed a lower base for the low point at the time, and contributed to the April M2 rebound.

At the same time, in the monthly increase in the month, the issuance of special bonds also provided important support. Yang Chang said that in April, the social integration of social integration increased by 10.2%year -on -year, and the social merger growth rate of the social merger after removing the special bond of local governments was 9.0%. effect. Local government special debt has a certain percentage in infrastructure investment, which also reflects the supporting role of infrastructure. Monetary policy has also recently increased the rescue efforts to market entities, and liquidity continues to be abundant. Zhang Xu said that the central bank is exerting the effectiveness of various monetary policy tools to help market players' rescue and the development of the real economy. The liquidity of the banking system continues to be abundant, and the benchmark interest rate of the capital market runs smoothly in a lower position. From early May to May 12th, the average value of DR007 and R001 is 1.62%and 1.42%, respectively, respectively, lower than the average of 48 in the first quarter, respectively. Base points and 58 basis points. The varieties of structural monetary policy tools are constantly innovating and the quota has been significantly improved. These structural tools can continue to put basic currencies, and they also have the advantages of precise drip irrigation. The focus is on the manufacturing and epidemic services. Essence

The economy is expected to usher in the background of recovery

In general, the data of the credit agency in April has fallen significantly within market expectations. Many analysts believe that the negative impact of recent epidemic conditions on economic operation is short -term, and the economy will gradually enter the repair channel. The Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Layun, recently stated that with the gradual emergence of the policy effects of efficiently coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, the impact of the epidemic is expected to gradually weaken. The turning point of recovery.

"Recently, some positive changes are emerging, and some indicators have improved. For example, the operating rate of the Tangshan Steel Plant's blast furnace has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the current interest rate of Silver Tickets for the three -month period has also risen rapidly from 0.25%at the end of April. "Zhang Xu said.

Wen Bin said that overall, this month's credit agency integration is obviously less than expected, reflecting the lack of current valid demand, and the economic downward pressure is greater. At the same time, M2 increased rapidly in April, and the cumulative new social integration in the first four months exceeded the same period last year, which also reflected the financial development to support the development of the real economy. At present, my country's economy is facing a more complex and changeable internal and external environment. The risk challenges have risen, and the stable growth is more urgent.

"Monetary policy should continue to give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structural policy, boost the effective financing needs, and stabilize the total amount of credit. Use the adjustment of the market -oriented mechanism of deposit interest rates to guide the downward cost of the real economy financing. With weak links and the support of the industry affected by the epidemic, it is relieved for market players and promoting economic operations in a reasonable range. "Wen Bin said.

Responsible editor: tactics