Economists such as Dalio, Lin Yifu and other economists have the latest voices!Facing a high -risk environment in the world, how do you get the Chinese economy?How to deal with risks?

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Economists such as Dalio, Lin Yifu and other economists have the latest voices!Facing a high -risk environment in the world, how do you get the Chinese economy?How to deal with risks?

2022-05-15 06:07:05 17 ℃

On May 14th, 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum was held online, and Ray Dalio, the founder of Qiaoshui Fund, gave a keynote speech and invited Lin Yifu, Liu Shijin, Yu Yongding and other well -known economists such as well -known economists Look forward to the world economy, finance and global order.

At present, human beings have not gone out of the haze of the century, and they are facing new traditional security risks; the global economic recovery is still fragile and weak, and the contradiction between the development of development of development; the complexity, severeness, and uncertainty of my country's economic development environment are also rising Essence

In the keynote speech of Ruidolo, Rui Dalio called for orderly competition, avoid conflicts, maintain a win -win situation between countries, and work hard for economic development and scientific and technological progress.

At this forum, a number of economists agreed that at present, the uncertainty of the world economy and financial environment has increased, but China will still maintain a dynamic economic development growth rate. China maintains a high -speed dynamic economic growth and maintains an open -oriented reform attitude, which can also bring opportunities to other countries. Next, we must adjust China's overseas asset structure, balance China's international revenue and expenditure, and respond to new changes in the international monetary system. It is also necessary to further tap the structural potential that truly promotes the long -term economic growth, and digs out the potential of green transformation and innovation by responding to the pressure of climate change.

Talking about the form of the world economy, Rui Dalio: Facing a high -risk environment worldwide

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridge Water Fund, said in a keynote speech that whenever a large -scale debt monetization, internal conflict, and the rise of large powers are hand -in, it will produce a high -risk environment, and this is positive. It is what is facing the world today.

Dalio pointed out that the current international community is in a period of large -scale debt monetization, internal conflict, and the rise of the major power. First of all, huge debt is accompanied by large -scale debt monetization, and the central bank's banknote printing to buy debt is particularly serious among the world's three major mainstream currencies. Secondly, there are serious internal conflicts in some Western countries. In addition, the rise of large powers such as China will bring unavoidable conflicts in the competition between big powers. Historical experience shows that whenever these three forces go hand in hand, a high -risk environment will be generated.

Dalio emphasized debt issues at the meeting. He said that when you look back at history, while a country is moving towards prosperity, it may be a lending that is continuously pushing, and financial bubbles will be generated after the debt is high. When a country's trade share continues to increase and most of the trade sets the country's currency settlement, the country's currency becomes a reserve currency, which will promote more loan behaviors. Next, in the face of the uneven distribution of wealth, it is often tried to relieve contradictions through printing.

"The conflict of the times we are now continuously rises, and the road ahead is very uncertain." Dalio said that there must be orderly competition between countries, avoid conflicts, maintain dialogue, win -win cooperation, and jointly for economic development and economic development and cooperation. Efforts to advance scientific and technological progress.

Talking about China's development, Lin Yifu: China can maintain dynamic economic growth

Professor and Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University, honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, and Lin Yifu, Dean of the School of South -South Cooperation and Development of Peking University, said that China should maintain a dynamic economic development growth rate and keep an open attitude Essence

Lin Yifu pointed out that China will maintain a dynamic economic development growth rate. At present, my country's per capita GDP is low, and the per capita proportion of science and technology is lower. However, as China continues to catch up, and the advantage of the post -hair loss, China should have 8%of the growth potential each year. In addition, China is already the world's largest economy in accordance with the purchasing power evaluation. The domestic market is huge and the international economic share accounts for a high proportion.

"With a good political environment, China can maintain dynamic economic growth." Lin Yifu said.

Lin Yifu also introduced that China should actively maintain openness and be able to become a promoter of globalization. Since 2008, China has accounted for one -quarter to one -third of global growth each year. If China can maintain high -speed growth, it will continue to help the development of the global economy.

Lin Yifu further pointed out that China is not only the world's largest economy under the purchasing power evaluation system, but also the world's largest trading country. It is the largest trading partner country in more than 120 countries. It accounts for 90%of the world. Trade is a win -win situation. Under the contemporary global economic background, other countries can benefit a lot from bilateral trade with China. China maintains a high -speed dynamic economic growth and maintains an open -oriented reform attitude. It will bring opportunities to other countries through its own growth.

How to deal with risks? Yu Yongding: Improve China's overseas asset security

Member of the Academic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, researcher of the Institute of Economic and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Bo Dao Yu Yongding emphasized the security issues of Chinese overseas assets. He said that it is necessary to adjust China's overseas asset structure, balance China's international revenue and expenditure, and respond to new changes in the international monetary system.

Yu Yongding emphasized that China's overseas asset -liability structure needs to be adjusted. On the one hand, increase the net income of overseas investment. The main content of adjustment is to reduce the proportion of foreign exchange reserves in Chinese overseas assets. On the other hand, the security of Chinese overseas assets, especially foreign exchange reserves.

China's overseas assets can be divided into two parts: stock and traffic. Yu Yongding believes that four measures can be taken for existing overseas assets: considering reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds, increasing holdings of other forms of assets; increasing some strategic resources such as Central Asia and other strategic resources Investment in producers; strictly protect foreign investors' investment in China; use IT technology, digital currency and other technical means to improve overseas asset security. For overseas asset traffic, Yu Yongding believes that the eight types of policy adjustment can be considered:

First, expansion fiscal monetary policy stimulates domestic demand to drive imports. The important condition for reducing the trade surplus is that there must be domestic domestic demand, and to ensure strong domestic demand. In addition to long -term structural reforms, in the short term, it is necessary to implement expansion fiscal monetary policy.

Second, cancel the export tax refund policy to encourage export execution as soon as possible.

Third, increase the import of commodities and strategic supplies such as food, energy, energy, energy, energy, energy and other commodities.

Fourth, buy less U.S. Treasury bonds, import more American products, and perform as much as possible to fulfill the Sino -US trade agreement.

Fifth, maintain a trade deficit in a certain period. By increasing imports and excess foreign reserves, it is combined with the implementation of the Sino -US trade agreement.

Sixth, the floating exchange rate policy is implemented. It is necessary to adhere to the increase or decrease of foreign exchange reserves caused by intervention in the market and adapting to the maintenance of the market.

Seventh, increase the form of overseas investment. It is also a way to adjust the trade surplus to overseas investment.

Eighth, use China's advantages in infrastructure investment, but be careful of debt trap.

How to dig potential? Liu Shijin: Green transformation and innovation will generate more added value

Former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, member of the CPPCC, vice chairman of the Fourth Council of the China Development Research Foundation, Liu Shijin, a professor and dean of the School of Economics Management, Harbin University of Technology (Shenzhen), said that the pressure of climate change can be dealt with. Digging the structural potential that truly promote the long -term economic growth.

According to Liu Shijin, the response method to respond to climate change is divided into the following three categories:

Defense reactions, traditional energy or high -carbon industries consider transformation and reorganization or even withdrawn.

Adaptive reactions to reduce energy use and carbon emissions.

For aggressive reactions, replace traditional high -carbon energy and high -carbon industries with low -carbon and zero -carbon new energy and new technologies.

"Defense and adaptability reactions have a limited effect on climate improvement, and even the green transformation of energy and economy after pushing back." Liu Shijin pointed out that globally, it should be focused on the aggressive reaction to achieve the systemic systemic systemic systemic systemic systemicity. Replacement, replacing the original high -carbon technology with low -carbon and zero carbon technology.

Liu Shijin further introduced that with the innovation of green transformation, in addition to achieving carbon reduction, more added value will be generated to create more consumer surplus. Taking the development of domestic new energy vehicles as an example, China's new energy vehicles accounted for 13%of the entire vehicle in 2021, and the proportion of this year accounted for nearly 20%. The original intention of developing new energy vehicles was to reduce carbon, but the benefits to consumers eventually were beyond imagination.

Liu Shijin said that in the early days of the listing of green products, there would be more expensive and premium, but as the competition in innovation intensified, the price is declining, and its competitiveness will gradually increase. Through the comparison of costs and income, green innovation will greatly decrease the cost of climate change.

In Liu Shijin's view, as the global economy enters the stage of digital transformation, the technological innovation made in response to environmental changes will greatly promote the digital transformation process. The greening of the digital economy will generate a lot of demand.

Responsible editor: Luo Xiaoxia