On May 14th, the 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum was held. Li Daokui, a professor of Economics Professor of Tsinghua University, delivered a speech. In an interview with time and financial, he gave an important discussion on the growth of Chinese population growth. Essence

The prediction of the World Bank's prediction that China's population is absolutely increased by 2030, and maybe it will be earlier. When the total population of China has arrived, will China's economic growth potential decline? Li Daokui did not agree with this view.

He measured that although the total population of China was peaked in 2030 or earlier, the total amount of the aging labor population may have basically bottomed out, but the health level of per capita is increasing. Each Chinese citizen has increased an average of 99 days a year since economic development since 1949. This value is foreseeable, and the growth of this value is obviously not slow.

At the same time, the education level of Chinese citizens has also increased, and universities have reached about 50%of the gross enrollment rate. If you consider the level of health and education, the overall human resources of China are rising.

Human resources are considered by the quality of population and health level, and can be used as the total time to participate in economic activities. China's human resources rose, and it will not decline until 2050. According to Li Daokui, if the population of 2020 is calculated, by 2050, China's total human resources equivalent is equivalent to 1.7 billion people, which is higher than the current 1.4 billion. The main mechanism of continued rising is education and health.

There are potential, but how to release this rising human resources? Li Daokui believes that the key is to respect the willingness of the people to retire voluntarily. The willingness to voluntarily withdraws is that if anyone is willing to work after 55 or 60 Properly improve. If this mechanism can be carried out and can be implemented, the enthusiasm of participating in social labor will increase.

Another key point is to continue to increase education input, especially continuing education. If you say that ten years ago, some of his skills need to be updated, and this continuing education must be improved accordingly.

The benefit of improving continuing education is not only the skills that can improve labor and improve production efficiency. Another advantage is that the development of continuing education is well developed. They are all anxious, fearing that children will lose on the starting line. From the perspective of the whole society, it is unreasonable. Everyone is concentrated in the early stage of education and does not invest in the later period.

The national level should increase investment at the continuing education level, generating a new social atmosphere. Even if a person is not very good to go to college, he can continue to work hard and continue to be educated. After graduating from college, he continues to take various skills training for ten years and two years.

When Li Daokui also mentioned the issue of fertility, "the issue of fertility, in the final analysis, must respect the wishes of the people."

It ’s good to have two two, you are welcome to have three, you can do it, but you must first respect the wishes of the people. It is not possible to treat fertility as a tool, and as a tool to say that it is a tool to maintain economic growth. Isn't economic growth for everyone to create a better and free development space? Don't discuss the second child, good three -child, four -child good, these discussions I don't think it is meaningful. "(Beijing Time Finance Chen Shiai)