Teng Nuo of the Great Power: The scarce ability in the future is to understand the ability of grassroots China2022-05-15 12:08:59 12 ℃
In 2008, Thomas Friedman wrote a global best -selling book "The World is Flat: A Simplified History of the 21st Century". Economist He Fan is the translator of the Chinese version.
Last year's "Wu Liao" talked about the show, Wu Xiaobo Channel invited Professor He Fan. There was also Jiang Peng, an associate professor at the Department of History of Fudan University. After seeing He Fan, he asked one thing:
One year, a well -known foreign scholar was invited to communicate with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The office called He Fan and asked him to act as a translation.
Professor He Fan said, I am very busy and want to pick up the child.
Later, Professor He Fan left the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and went to Shanghai Jiaotai University of Economics and Management. Compared to the briefcase she had previously carried, He Fan now put on a backpack, and he said he would run around at any time.
In Professor He Fan's view, instead of pondering macro data and economic models all day, it is better to go out of the high cabinet, see the changes in the development of this country, measure the mountains and rivers with your feet, walk into the village, walk into the production line, and enter the world of taxi drivers. Go to the entrepreneur to listen to him to tell stories. A person studying a macroeconomic suddenly returned to the state of micro -field survey.
For this reason, He Fan set a big Flag for himself: starting in 2019, the micro -changes that have experienced himself every year and the country's micro -changes in this country have been written until 2049 -it happens to be the founding 100 of New China 100 anniversary. He named this series of books "Variables". This year, the fourth "Variable 4: Teng Nuo".
In this huge job, He Fan did not record a magnificent "epic" with an impassioned gesture, which made people bloody, but relying on his own power to record a "era" related to your destiny. The real little people in the change of vortex make you and I become the writer and observer of history -this is worthy of our respect. You can even regard it as a behavior of behavior: a man named He Fan puts himself huge handcuffs and starts a hard long -distance running for 30 years.
Following the "Variables: Seeing Social Trends" in 2019, to the last two "Variables 2: Reading the Basic Economic Late of China", "Variable 3: Survival Strategy in the Native Era", Professor He Fan set this year's theme as "Teng Nuo" Essence
Teng Nuo is a Go terminology. For example, when you and your opponent play on the chessboard, you find that the upper left corner is already at a disadvantage, and there is no son to fall. At this time, you should fall into a new place, and the entire potential energy and pattern may change through the opening of a new battlefield or even defeat.
He Fan uses this Go terminology into economic observation. Just as China today, the industries that are favorable for cannibalism have appeared, and many areas are over -competitive, forming the state of the Red Sea phenomenon and plate knotting. Someone chose to lie flat and shouted "no drama", and some people chose to die. Of course, marginal benefits will become lower and lower.
Is it possible to open up a new world by moving? He Fan first focused his attention in the township.
The backwardness of the countryside seems irreparable. In 2000, there were 3.6 million natural villages in China. By 2019, there were about 2.5 million natural villages. In 20 years, 1.1 million villages disappeared, and an average of 150 disappeared daily. At the same time, there are more than 2,800 county -level administrative regions in China. Some counties have more than 100 billion GDPs a year, comparable to developed countries, but some counties are very backward. Therefore, some people need to move the new productive forces and new thinking in the big cities to the township and counties.
The book talks about an interesting case.
There are two post -90s guys who were originally drones in Shenzhen. In April 2021, they ran to the cotton fields in Weili County, Bayin, Xinjiang, and used modern technology to use unmanned cotton. According to the traditional cotton planting method of Xinjiang, management of 3,000 acres of cotton fields requires about 25 people, and with their intelligent management, only two people need 3,000 acres of cotton fields. They brought the most cutting -edge technologies to the cotton field in Xinjiang, driverless tractors, intelligent control irrigation systems, drone weeding fertilizer and so on.
Suddenly found that cotton flowers are as easy as playing games, and an industry is the Red Sea in Shenzhen, and it has become a blue ocean in a small county in Xinjiang.
There are many examples in the book. Someone opened a pioneer bookstore in the ancient villages of more than 600 years in Songyang County, Lishui, Zhejiang. Essence
The minibus met a friend. At that time, he was still a Taobao Primary School. His hometown is also located in an ancient village in Songyang County, Lishui. One day, he suddenly returned to his hometown to start a business. It turned out that during the Taobao Primary School, he found that the new middle class liked honey very much, and his hometown has been brewed honey for hundreds of years. The quality is similar to that of Australia's imported honey, but the price is 30%cheaper.
So he began to make Douyin and became a fan of a million fans. After the fire, he sold his honey of his hometown. The first year sold about 10 million, and the second year was sold to 20 million. In the third year, Songyang's honey was fired, and at the same time, it also led to the honey industry in the village and surrounding villages.
It is such an inconspicuous Primary Er, using his Internet operations and content creative ability, to make a humble mountain village formed a new productive forces. How do you say what ordinary people say in the book? New opportunities were found from a small trend.
One of the main lines of the great country is "the vast market of township and county economy", which actually includes a dark line, that is, how to understand the culture and lifestyle of young people. After many young people came to big cities today, they often forgot their hometown and often asked what young people should do as a first -tier city.
However, Professor He Fan told us that his hometown always has endless treasures. In the future, China's innovation is more likely to occur in the edge, because the low -testing cost and a relaxed and diversified environment of the edge zone can bring more vitality to innovation, and while, and more vitality, and more, and more vitality, and more vitality, and more vitality, and more vitality, and more vitality, and more vitality, and more, Big cities are more likely to strangle young people's talents and dreams.
The book focuses on the successful cases of the small county in the small county on the edge of the city. Renke and Ama's fans are familiar with. They are from Haifeng County, Shanwei, Guangdong, and they are all young people in the town. The music of the five people is rough and fierce, and the soil is scum. However, they sang the longing for rustic love and life, bringing the confidence of the same urban life.
I remember that one year of WeChat anniversary, the only band invited was five. Because a large number of users in WeChat are young people from the county town. You may not understand the dialects of the five people, but the emotions he revealed can call out cultural innovation.
Many of the bands have emerged in these years: the wet bands sang in Yibin, the Heisa band in Xi'an, Yao XIII of Guizhou, Su Yang in Ningxia ... They often have not been born in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. He Fan found that the county's future must be an important soil for the revival of China's local culture.
A word at the end of this part is worth pondering. He Fan wrote: "In the future, the most scarce talent in China is to understand the ability of real China and grassroots China." Only in this way can we find the business model of serving hundreds of millions of people, grasp the affectionate people's opinions, and find the most suitable national conditions for national conditions. The way of governance.
There is not only a good side in small places, such as local debt is the crux of China's economic development. Can it be "moving" to resolve local debt? Professor He Fan went to Guizhou for investigation.
Guizhou is located in the Yunnan -Guizhou Plateau. If you want to get rich, you must build the road first. So in the past two decades, Guizhou's highway construction ranks in the top five in the country. High -speed also needs to cooperate with the construction of a large number of bridges and tunnels, so that 12 of the top 20 in the world's highest bridges, Guizhou Province accounts for 12.
But road construction is expensive. The earliest highway in China only costs 20 or 30 million one kilometer, and now one kilometer is 150 million. Some underdeveloped mountainous areas, due to the multi -bridge and tunnels, the cost of one kilometer is close to 30 million. Looking at the whole country, the total revenue of the national toll roads in 2019 is less than 600 billion yuan, the total expenditure exceeds 1 trillion, and the income and expenditure gap is 485 billion yuan. It will lose nearly 5 trillion yuan in 10 years. This gap will become larger and larger.
Guizhou naturally fell into a debt trap. At the end of 2020, the debt scale of Guizhou's toll roads accounted for 45%of the province's GDP, far more than 6%of the national average. To make matters worse, ten years later, 20%of the country's highway charges expired, and the debt repayment model came to an end.
Of course, there can be a more "chicken thief" approach, such as resolving debt stocks, short debts to long debt, or debt -to -equity switching to financial institutions. Is this a kind of movement? Just like Hu Xueyan said, "Eight jars and seven lids, cover and cover without help."
This can only be said to be a Ponzi scam. The real Teng Nuo, in the opinion of Professor He Fan, strives for time, logs in the mountains, and make a lid. We don't need to solve all problems at a specific time.
So he gave a way to make a move: to activate the stock assets. Along the highway and railway, there are many high -quality and huge assets such as service areas, toll stations, communication pipeline networks, base stations, billboards and other high -quality assets.
In Guizhou, the open land and idle plants on the highway alone reached more than 20,000 acres. In addition, there are huge, dynamic updated data resources such as road conditions, traffic flow, and user travel consumption. The local government can change the nature of these land and allow social capital to participate. For example, to engage in logistics on the side of the highway, you need to participate in the logistics company; if you want to do charging piles, you need to cooperate with the power grid; if you want to revitalize digital assets, you need to find an Internet company; you must also ask professional businesses to do it in the service area.
This method is not new. Huang Qifan has practiced in Chongqing and Wang Guoping in Hangzhou. And to revitalize these sleeping assets through "Teng Nuo", use time to change space, and use the industry to change the future, the debt problems arising from the development of infrastructure can be fundamentally solved.
Keynes said that in economics, we often encounter some problems, stuck there to make the economy be unable to develop, make the city unable to move, and let everyone fall into a huge predicament. what to do? You need to create a new question to replace it.
In the process of solving this new problem, the old problem naturally solved it. If the old problem is dead, it will never be solved.
This is also a concept of Teng.
It's like London that year. When there were 500,000 people in London, there were 80,000 carriages and hundreds of thousands of horses on the road. The first problem appeared: how to deal with horse dung on the road? It seems difficult to solve. You can only create a new problem: how to move faster from A to B? So the car appeared, and the problem of horse dung was naturally solved.
In the book "Variable 4", Professor He Fan saw the rural rejuvenation, the rise of the town, the local debt, the pension industry, etc., and it seemed to be the problem of the knot, but if the movement method, the economy and the economy and the economy and Society may have jump -type non -linear changes. The same is true for individuals. The golden age of the rise of great powers gave everyone a chance to move. No one can crush you in all directions. As long as you do n’t lie flat, you ca n’t walk on one way, you can go another way and leave some time and space.
As a macroeconomist, He Fan walks on the front line to discover problems. He thinks about economics through actual cases. He hopes that we can accompany him for 30 years. This long journey is also the process of understanding this country and individuals. Essence
In addition to the interpretation of the above -mentioned "Variable 4: Teng Nuo of the Great Power", Mr. Wu Xiaobo also raised six questions to He Fan.
Question 1: In recent years, under the dual influence of Sino -US trade friction and the new crown epidemic, Chinese society has shown some kind of pessimism. For ordinary people, it seems full of uncertainty. "What are the judgments based on what are the typical characteristics of this new era?
Question 2: You talked about the "Teng Nuo" of individuals, enterprises, and even a village in the book. What conditions are "Teng Nuo" is feasible. Is there any factors that can increase the probability of "Teng Nuo" success?
Question 3: Most of the examples in the book, "Teng Nuo" often shows the survival strategy that the disadvantaged side is in trouble. However, there is a courage to "go straight" in our culture. And ", Mencius's" although there are millions of people going to go ", what do you think of the differences between the two ideas?
Question 4: Whether it is the return of migrant workers, the economic development of the county, the dilemma of the manufacturing industry, or the aging of the population, you have proposed a unique solution in the book. In your research How should you deal with these issues?
Question 5: In the book, you interviewed individuals who are beating workers, stars in the town, and factory owners. What are the criteria for screening the interview objects, and what are the considerations of these people?
Question 6: The text of this book is refreshing and narrative. It talks about various propositions such as China's social environment, macroeconomics, industrial transformation, and even individual destiny. However, there are few classic theoretical frameworks or data models. What are the reasons? Will the slightly literary expression weaken the persuasion?
Audio planning | Xu Tao
Audio Operation | Chang Xiujuan | Editor -in -law | Zheng Yuanmei
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