Guan Tao: The Chinese monetary policy window is not whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, but before the arrival of the domestic inflation period

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Guan Tao: The Chinese monetary policy window is not whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, but before the arrival of the domestic inflation period

2022-05-15 12:09:09 15 ℃

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Li Yue Beijing reported that "We can see that China's CPI in the past two months has increased rapidly from the year -on -year and the month -on -month growth rate has increased rapidly. In this case, the central bank's monetary policy time window is not the Fed. The time window is before the inflation period comes. If the inflation period is coming to the central bank's monetary policy operation, it may also face greater challenges. "On May 14, Guan Tao, the global chief economist of BOC International Securities," 2022 Tsinghua University "Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum" said.

On May 11, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in April, the national CPI rose by 2.1%year -on -year and 0.4%month -on -month. The year -on -year growth rate was 2%of the first time this year. The State Council's executive meeting held on the same day pointed out that to ensure stable prices, the supply of basic people's livelihood demand for basic people's livelihood is abundant, but we must not take it lightly. We must grasp the production of grain to ensure stable grain output and supply, and consolidate the foundation of stability.

Guan Tao believes that it is necessary to make good use of the normal space of the fiscal and monetary policy, and strive to work hard. At the end of last year, the Central Work Conference has proposed to organically combine the cycle and counter -cycle. The organic combination of tools, strengthening the coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary policy, and coordination of fiscal and monetary policy and other policies, increase financial and tax financial support for weak links in key areas, and strive to achieve the goal of stable growth, employment and prices. At the same time, we must continue to do relevant work to stabilize the external needs, but also need to further expand domestic demand. "In particular, avoiding tightening external demand in the future, downturn in domestic demand, stable growth pressure will further increase. Economy can only be strong. "

"Since mid -March, especially since the end of April, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted. One of the important reasons is that driven by the Fed's tightness expectations, the US dollar index has reached a 20 -year high, which has brought adjustments to the RMB exchange rate, but but the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, but The adjustment of the RMB exchange rate is not entirely the reason, and there are other factors. "Guan Tao said that the Federal Reserve in the future has further tightened, and it has an overflowing effect on China through trade exchanges, capital flow, and financial market channels.

In this regard, Guan Tao said that it is necessary to maintain the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate policy on the basis of the basis of a reasonable and balanced level, so that the RMB exchange rate forms a bidirectional fluctuations of rising and falling. Role to enhance the autonomy of macro policies, and also helps enhance the confidence of domestic and foreign investors; we should continue to promote the marketization, rule of law, and internationalization of the financial market, improve the basic system, attract medium and long -term funds to directly enter the market, enhance policies to enhance policies Transparency and expected, timely response to market concerns, stabilizing the expectations of domestic and foreign investors.

For China, Guan Tao believes that how the monetary policy must adhere to me as the main and at the same time take into account both internal and external balance. The relationship with financial stability is not only essential to the stability of the US economic and financial, but also a vital essential for the world. "The United States should not cause the asset bubble and the economic recession due to policy errors. This is a very large tail risk."

Guan Tao also commented on social finance and credit data in April. It believes that monetary credit data shows that the year -on -month and year -on -year growth rate has slowed down significantly, reflecting the further impact of the recent epidemic situation on the virtual economy. Enterprise operation difficulties have increased, and effective financing demand has decreased.

"The average monthly level of interest rates (currency markets) in April fell 27 BPs from the previous month. The average daily level from May to May 13th decreased by 20 BP from the previous month. The main problem is that the main problem is affected by the spread of the epidemic, and the market's effective demand is insufficient. Therefore, can this year be able to better coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development. Can the impact on the external expectation of the outside world can be effective? "Guan Tao said.