focus on!The Shanghai Index 5 Lianyang shocks 3100 points!Is it a good time to build a position near 3000 points?

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focus on!The Shanghai Index 5 Lianyang shocks 3100 points!Is it a good time to build a position near 3000 points?

2022-05-15 18:02:00 11 ℃

On Friday, the A -share continued strong performance, market funds focused on the main line of "post -epidemic recovery", and the real estate and automotive sector also set off a daily limit, driving the Shanghai Index plate of 3100 points. As the index ended on Friday, the market came out of 5 consecutive Yangs this week. The daily rebound was 11.11%.

Social federation data in April may end up

Although the short -term index strengthened, the April Social Rong data announced after closing on Friday was significantly lower than expected. Specifically, the new social integration was 910.2 billion yuan, with a previous value of 4.65 trillion yuan; social integration was 3.2646 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 10.2%; new RMB loan was 645.4 billion yuan, the previous value of 3.13 trillion yuan; M2 increased year -on -year increased growth. 10.5%, the previous value of 9.7%; M1 increased by 5.1%year -on -year, and the previous value was 4.7%; M0 increased by 11.4%year -on -year.

For this data, the interpretation of analysts in the market is mostly in the market, but it has not showed optimistic expectations.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said that social finance is significantly lower than the market expectations. In April, the new RMB loan was 361.6 billion yuan, an increase of over 920 billion yuan year -on -year, or related to the interference of the epidemic situation; with the gradually weakening of the epidemic interference, the advancement of re -production and resumption, the steady growth to the second step and the improvement of physical demand. The worst stages of economic prosperity may have passed.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that at present, when this round of epidemic has the greatest impact on the economic impact, it may have passed. However, the recovery of real economic loans still takes time. In the future, while monetary policy maintains a reasonable liquidity, or in the following three aspects, it supports the real economy: First, to promote the market -oriented reform of deposit interest rates, reduce bank deposit costs, and guide corporate loan interest rates to decline. The second is to accelerate the structured tools of landing, support the green field, scientific and technological innovation, inclusive pension and other fields that fit the direction of high -quality development, and actively promote the launch of medium and long -term loans in key areas. Third, the weak links that support the real economy and industries that are seriously affected by the epidemic. For example, the difficulty of market players increased further, or referred to the launch of a larger -scale re -discount policy for experience in 2020 to provide targeted liquidity support.

Market emotions are still cautious

The stock index futures have always been criticized by the shareholder group by being able to be short, but such a long and two -way varieties may be able to respond to the market sentiment and capital game trend. After the index rose on Friday, the ICs and IF varieties in the stock index futures have different degrees of net reduction of polylines. For example, the IC2205 contract, after closing on Friday, the multi -headed position was 4581 hands, the short position was 4398 hands, and the long -headed net reduction was 183 hands. In the IF2205 contract, the multi -headed position was 2667 hands, and the short position was 1924. The position was 743.

In addition, the ascension of the stock index futures has been used to observe the emotional cycle of the market. When the price of the stock index futures is higher than the price of the spot index, the stock index futures are in the water. Conversely, the stock index futures are in water.

At present, there are 5 trading days before the delivery date of this month, but the main contracts of IH, IF and IC have different degrees of stickers (the futures price is lower than the spot), indicating that the current market sentiment is still cautious.

Guoxin Securities released a research report on May 11th that the annual number of the main contract for the main contract of 500 stock index futures in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI has been 0.78%, 3.93%, 6.46%, and 6.46%. 20220511 On the day of the 50 -stock index futures main contract, the annualized water paste rate of 9.42%was at the past 15%division point. On the day The sub -point point, the annualized annualized water admission rate of the 500 stock index futures of the C Securities Stock Exchange was 22.05%, which was at 12%in the past year.

Is it a good time to build a position near 3000 points?

The decline of A shares since the beginning of this year stems from the uncertainty of the external environment, and on the other hand, it is also closely related to the domestic epidemic. At the press conference of the Shanghai epidemic prevention and control work today, the Shanghai government announced that After the resumption of work in Shanghai, the Chinese economy may improve in the second quarter.

Li Bei Investment Li Bei said that in the past few months, A shares, especially the manufacturing segmentation of the manufacturing industry, which represented by the CSI 500, has undergone financing of financing, and snowballs are knocked into. Entering the absolute underestimation interval for 10 years. Long Zhan Yuye has been completed, and the eating market is now. Don't have to be too pessimistic for a long time.

Guan Tao, chief economist of BOC International Securities, said that this year China's economy is facing the three major internal and external challenges of the three major internal and external challenges of the three major internal and external challenges of the expectations of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate tightening, and the Russian -Ukraine conflict. At present, the main problem is not the looseness of monetary policy, but insufficient market valid demand.

Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Construction Investment, said that referring to the actual situation of this round of the epidemic and the past "postproof recovery" market, the sector of this "postpartum recovery" market can be divided into two categories: one is the epidemic situation in each roundThe common sector that will affect the consumer service industry is mainly based on the current direction of travel, tourism and logistics; the other is the core industry of Shanghai and Jilin.These sectors are guaranteed under the blessing of high boom.Source: Financial Association

Original title: Shanghai Index 5 Lianyang shock 3,100 points may still have differences