India prohibits wheat exit, and once again ringing food safety alarm clock | Beijing News column

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India prohibits wheat exit, and once again ringing food safety alarm clock | Beijing News column

2022-05-16 00:07:07 14 ℃

▲ On April 19, 2022, the scene of the Punjab Emley Wheat in India. Figure/Xinhua News Agency on May 14, local time, the Minister of Agriculture of the Seven Kingdoms (G7) condemned India's temporary ban on wheat exports. The day before, India issued a temporary ban on wheat exports, claiming that the international grain prices caused by the Russian and Ukraine's military conflict have risen sharply, which has threatened the safety of food in India and neighboring countries. The country uses the people as the heaven, and the people use food as the heaven. Therefore, food security has become an important part of national security, or even core issues. But in this extraordinary summer, food safety has become a global issue. This security is not only reflected in the general grain supply, but also the uneven supply of grain types, especially the large -scale gap between wheat supply. Due to dietary habits and trade structures, different types of grain can not be replaced at any time, anywhere, and at will. This leads to the shortage of supply of a specific crop that will exacerbate the grain crisis. As a traditional food exporter, India suddenly announced that the ban on wheat exports will not only further exacerbate the severity of global food security, but also have a significant and far -reaching impact on international relations and regional situations. There will be three main reasons for the global food shortage of the world to face the world ’s severe food shortage: climate change, Russian -Ukraine conflict, and new crown pneumonia's supply chain interruption. In terms of climate impact, North American prairie and South American Panpas Grassland, as the world's most important grain producing area, is undergoing unprecedented drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that due to the drought from 2021 to 2022, Argentina's soybeans are expected to decrease by about 15 million tons. According to CNN in the United States, since October last year, there was no rainfall in Kansas, the largest wheat producing area in the United States, and it is expected that wheat will be apologized.

According to the National State Drought Disaster Reduction Center (NDMC), more than half of the land in Kansas is classified as a level 3 "severe drought" or worse state in the level 5 drought. In addition, the three -quarters of Oklahma's wheat fields and more than two -thirds of farmland in Texas are in severe drought. At the same time, military conflicts have weakened the role of Ukraine and Russia as "European granary". Based on export value, Russia and Ukraine in 2020 are the world's largest and fifth -large wheat exporters, respectively. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine, 85%of the country's crop exports relied on the shipping of the Asia and the Black Sea. Because of military conflicts, a large number of wheat stays in ports and cannot be shipped. The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine pointed out that on -site transportation can only meet 25%to 30%of freight demand, and because the Ukrainian railway is different from the European Union specifications, the cost of the border's vehicle replacement will increase the export price of the crop by 10%to 15%. Russian crops that also need to use the Black Sea Trade route are not only facing the same problems as Ukraine, but they are also kicked out of the international grain market because of financial sanctions in the United States and Western countries. In fact, in order to cope with sanctions and protect the domestic food market, the Russian government has also announced its own restrictions on food exports. If military conflicts continue, global food supply will continue to decline. On the one hand, more young people are called to join the army, leading to insufficient agricultural labor in Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia and Belarus are the world's largest and sixth largest exporters in the world, respectively. Military conflicts have also caused a shortage of fertilizer in Ukraine and even many countries in the world. The fuel required for farming machinery is therefore seriously inadequate. The Ministry of Agriculture of the United States predicts that the total global wheat output of 2022-2023 is 774.8 million tons, which is the first time since 2018-2019. The global buffer inventory is expected to be 267 million tons, a decline in the second consecutive year, the lowest level in six years. The global food crisis this year and next year is imminent.

▲ On May 7, 2022, in Sri Lanka Homermmer, a farmer was sown in the field. Figure/Xinhua News Agency's grain shortage will cause political crisis and social turbulent food to be a rigid demand for human life. Mild fluctuations on the supply end may cause the consumer price to fluctuate violently. In March 2022, Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) wheat futures prices have reached a record high since 2008, reaching $ 13.63 per puppet ear. David Bisley, Director-General of the United Nations World Food Program (WFP), said, "Due to the new crown epidemic, the world's hungry people have increased by 18%, and Ukraine conflicts may cause 7.6 million to 13.1 million to suffer Begamed beyond the disaster state. "Reuters reported that" 346 million people who surpass the total population of the African continent face a serious food turbulent situation. " Poverty and backward countries and regions lead to political crisis and social turmoil. For example, 80%of its wheat imports from the economic crisis for many years comes from Ukraine and 15%from Russia. Today, the Lebanon government, which has always subsidized food imports, has been unable to withstand rising wheat prices and is on the fiscal bankruptcy. Egypt is also facing a similar fiscal crisis. Subsidies for bread have always been the foundation of Egypt's political stability, and its fiscal expenditure accounts for 1%of the country's GDP. Sri Lanka, which is currently in the most serious economic crisis since 1948. If the grain problem cannot be solved, large -scale violence and political turmoil will inevitably increase. In terms of global perspective, if more and more governments cannot withstand the financial expenditure brought by the rise in grain prices, social turmoil and revolution like the "Arab Spring" in 2011 are likely to appear in more countries. ▲ On April 8, 2022, customers were shopping in a market in Budapest, Hungary. Figure/Xinhua News Agency India's attempt to take the opportunity to politically take food exports to India is the world's second largest wheat producer and rice producer, and one of the world's important food exporters. However, India's grain exports are dominated by rice and have the first in the world's total exports for a long time. Its wheat exports only accounted for only 3%of the world in 2021, and more than 50%were exported to Bangladesh. From the data point of view, India has large -scale rice and wheat storage. The total inventory of the two is 74 million tons, of which 21 million tons are used for strategic reserves and public distribution systems to provide cheap food for the country's more than 700 million poor people. Gulati, an agricultural professor at the Indian International Economic Research Committee, said that theoretically, India has the ability to export 22 million tons of rice and 16 million tons of wheat in this fiscal year. After the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine military conflict, due to the stimulus, Indian wheat exports began to increase significantly. However, since March, the rising drought, shortage of fertilizer, and energy prices are weakening the Indian government's confidence in the self -sufficiency in food in the future. It is also in this context that the Indian government has announced the ban from exports of wheat to ensure domestic demand. At the same time, grain as a geopolitical tool is also becoming the consideration of the Indian government. In a official notice issued by the General Administration of Foreign trade (DGFT) issued on the evening of May 13, "the Indian government is committed to meeting the food security needs of India, surrounding countries and other fragile developing countries." It can export a part of wheat in accordance with the requirements of other countries. Earlier, Indian Prime Minister Modi also told US President Biden that if the World Trade Organization allowed, India can "prepare for the world to provide inventory food from tomorrow." Therefore, the current prohibition of wheat instead of rice exports can also be regarded as an important tool for India to politize food exports, trying to use cheap grain shops to lead it to the center of international political power centers. In fact, as the grain crisis intensifies, many countries are tightening the policy of grain exports. This will undoubtedly further tighten the global food supply flexibility, and even cause humanitarian disasters in some countries and regions. And this will definitely enable countries with the ability to export food to have more international discourse. Former US Secretary of State Kissinger once pointed out that whoever controls oil, whoever controls all countries; whoever master the currency controls the world; whoever controls food will control the whole mankind. In simple terms, only about 33 countries in the world can achieve self -sufficiency in grain, that is, the grain dependencies of most countries rely on imports. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization released the "2022 Global Grain Crisis Report" showing that in 2021, about 19.3 million people in 53 countries or regions experienced further deterioration of the grain crisis or unsafe grain, a record high. In the future, food may become a strategic material that has the same geographical significance as oil. In the future international political structure, food exporters may occupy a more advantageous position. These countries include both traditional hegemony countries and the United States, and the emerging rising countries India. In the small food, the state will hide the state. In this regard, China must not be vigilant and valued.