India's prohibiting wheat exports from exporting global food prices will change?

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India's prohibiting wheat exports from exporting global food prices will change?

2022-05-16 00:07:07 12 ℃

After the Russian -Ukraine conflict was upgraded in February this year, Indian wheat exports once increased to the highest historical record. However, it was not half half in May, but India suddenly "changed her face" and announced that wheat exports were prohibited. As the world's second largest wheat producer, India's move has resurrected the global concerns about rising food prices, and also worsened many countries facing the shortage of food supply. After all, food and clothing may be the most important issue before the price.

Don't sell it, eat yourself

Two months after being tortured by high temperatures, at the night of the 13th local time, the Indian General Administration of Foreign trade issued an announcement saying that a temporary ban on the exports of Indian wheat will take effect immediately. The announcement pointed out that rising international grain prices have threatened food security in India and neighboring countries.

The Indian General Administration of Foreign Trade stated that its temporary prohibition of wheat exports is mainly based on two aspects. First of all, India's domestic inflation is high, and the price of food has risen significantly. Indeed, India's domestic inflation has not been high in the near future, and the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 7.79%in April, the highest level in the past 8 years; the Indian food inflation index also reached the highest level of nearly 17 months in April. According to Reuters, an export dealer in Mumbai said that although they expected that wheat exports would be restricted, "it seems that the inflation rate has changed the government's idea."

Secondly, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to a sharp rise in international grain prices is also one of the reasons for India's temporary ban on wheat exports. Hong Tao, director of the International Department of the Chinese Food Economics Society and chief expert of the School of Modern Economic Management of the School of Foreign Languages, Zhejiang Yuexiu, told a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily that the reason why India banned wheat was expected to fall in 2022. There is a rising, and the "butterfly effect" of Russia and Ukraine conflicts.

In addition to the reasons mentioned in the announcement, there may be a problem of production reduction caused by drought. Wang Jianjiao, director of the Economic and Trade Cooperation Department of the Silk Road Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily that agriculture is the most significant area affected by global climate. This year, Indian agriculture is facing drought climate disasters, which will cause wheat output to be reduced. The temperature in India began to soar in mid -March 2022. The Indian government estimates that wheat output may be less than 100 million tons this year, a decrease of nearly 10%from the estimated 110 million tons in January.

However, Wang Jianjiao also pointed out that Indian wheat output has not been affected by drought, but a large number of exports have led to the continued rise in local prices. According to the Indian Stan Times, the total exports of Indian wheat in March, which ended in March from 2021 to 2022, hit the highest record of 7.85 million tons, an increase of 275%year -on -year. India exported 1.4 million tons of wheat in April, setting the highest historical record; in May, it has also signed about 1.5 million tons of wheat export agreement.

Wang Jianjiao said that wheat is one of the main grains of India. Due to the consideration of domestic food security and stabilizing domestic food prices, the government designated the policy of banning of wheat prohibition. The Indian government has also announced that the policy is not a long -term policy and will be adjusted immediately according to the global food situation.

A notice from the General Administration of Foreign Trade in India also states that in order to ensure the safety needs of food, countries whose requirements are requested and obtained by the Indian government will continue to obtain wheat exported by India.

G7 has warned food safety

Obviously, India's decision made most people be surprised. After the news came out, the Minister of Agriculture of the Seven Kingdoms (G7) condemned India's decision to temporarily ban wheat exports. They said that the Russian conflict may have serious consequences of food security in the world, and the restrictions on Ukrainian grain exports further exacerbated global food tensions.

The Minister of Agriculture of the Seventh Kingdom Group held a meeting in Stuttgart, Germany from 13th to 14th to discuss global food security issues caused by the Russian -Ukraine conflict. The host German Agricultural Minister Eutamir criticized India's behavior at the press conference: "If each country implements export restrictions, it will exacerbate the crisis, and we (the Seventh Kingdom Group) calls on India The responsibility. "He said that the current situation requires world unity to fight hunger. At the same time, the efforts of climate change and protecting biodiversity should not be stopped. At present, it is the three major priorities to deal with climate change, food safety and peace.

Regarding the consequences of India's ban on wheat exports, Wang Jianjiao believes that India is the world's second largest wheat producer, and the sudden release of trade protection policies will further increase international grain prices. The price of grain affects their food safety.

Wang Jianjiao further analyzed that Ukraine's wheat export accounts for nearly 10%of the global export volume. Due to the situation of the Ukrainian port of the Black Sea due to the situation of the Russian and Ukraine, 90%of the sea transportation path of Ukrainian wheat exports can be affected. However, the price of land transportation is much higher than the sea transport, which will also cause international wheat prices to soar.

As for the impact on our country, Hong Tao pointed out that according to statistics, since 2018, global grain production has increased production for three consecutive years, more than 2.9 billion tons, especially in China, "18 years of abundance", and grain inventory is large. In 2021, my country has imported grain food for two consecutive years, with 35.791 million tons and 65.376 million tons. my country has higher grain output and large inventory. The temporary embargo on Indian grain has not had much impact on China.

The market is worried about the price of food prices to rise again

Before India make a decision, the global food chain has continued to eat. According to statistics from Reuters, Russia and Ukraine's wheat exports account for nearly 30 % of the total global wheat exports. Wang Jianjiao pointed out that due to the crisis of Russia and Ukraine, the global grain prices rose to a new high, and the rising international wheat prices have pushed up the price of wheat in India, and the price of wheat has further increased. The Associated Press data shows that since the beginning of this year, global wheat prices have risen by more than 40%. At present, the wheat futures price of the Chicago Futures Exchange CBOT has climbed from 770 cents at the beginning of the year to the highest value of March 7th, which is close to 1300 cents/puppet ear, which has set a record in history. Since then, it has maintained at 1100 US cents/ Pu -ears fluctuated, compared with the price of less than 700 cents/Pu -ears in the same period last year.

As one of the world's major wheat producers, India's export ban will effectively reduce domestic wheat prices. However, some analysts believe that the ban may also push global food prices. A wheat export dealer in India also told Reuters: "India's export ban will push global wheat prices."

Wang Jianjiao believes that the global food prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. In addition to non -resistance factors such as climate disasters, other main food countries will continue to impact the world's grain prices.

According to statistics, the Agricultural price index of the World Bank rose 11%in the first quarter of 2022, reaching the highest point of history. The index is 25%higher than a year ago. Wang Jianjiao frankly said that due to the rise in the price of fertilizer raw materials such as the century's epidemic, Russia and Ukraine conflict, and natural gas, the production cost of large crops such as wheat and soaring input costs. Among major food products, wheat prices rose the fastest, up 31%higher than the previous quarter, and 57%higher than a year ago.

Regarding the trend of international grain prices, Hong Tao pointed out that the fluctuations in food prices are mainly caused by three reasons: first, production fluctuations, such as increasing production or reducing production; second, supply and demand fluctuations, increase demand or reduce demand; The influence of futures markets.

Hong Tao said that the current main factor is the influence of expected fluctuations. For example, the world's grain output may decline in 2022, and the impact of the embargo in some countries, but the overall trend of food supply and demand has not changed. For example, Russia for three consecutive years from 2020-2022 for three consecutive years of grain output from 120 million to 130 million tons, and wheat output between 70 million and 80 million tons. It is expected that wheat will increase production in 2022, reaching 87 million tons.

Beijing Commercial Daily reporter Tao Feng Zhao Tianshu