Only 25 R & D personnel have a market value of 168.9 billion, which may be the largest oolong in A shares

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Only 25 R & D personnel have a market value of 168.9 billion, which may be the largest oolong in A shares

2022-05-19 18:09:08 21 ℃

Author | Eastland

Head Figure | Visual China

In June 2021, the Three Gorges New Energy (600905.SH) first publicly issued and successfully raised 22.7 billion. On the day of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the market value exceeded 100 billion.

In 2021, the new energy revenue and net profit of the Three Gorges were 15.48 billion and 5.64 billion, respectively. As of the closing of last Friday, its latest market value was 168.9 billion, and the price -earnings ratio was 30 times.

In 2021, China Electric Power Construction revenue and net profit were 448.3 billion and 8.63 billion, respectively. As of the closing of last Friday, its latest market value was 108 billion yuan and the price -earnings ratio was 12.5 times. Among them, "power investment and operation" revenue of 20.34 billion and a gross profit margin of 40.8%(the net profit of the division was not disclosed).

China Power Construction, which is 4.5%of the power investment business, is homogeneous with the Three Gorges New Energy (and 31.4%). If it is listed independently, the market value will not lose the Three Gorges New Energy.

As of the end of March 2022, a total of 155 funds held the Three Gorges New Energy, and the number of shares accounted for 7.4%of circulating shares. China Power Construction is gold, and the Three Gorges New Energy is silver. Silver also has investment value, but scarcity is far less than gold. When the price of gold is lower than Silver, institutional investors abandon gold and buy silver at a high price.

The "extension growth" of the Three Gorges New Energy

1) Three Gorges Group

Three Gorges New Energy's controlling shareholder of the Three Gorges Group has a total of 23 first -class enterprises incorporated into the scope of the merger statement, divided into eight sectors.

Among them, the leader of the "Electricity Production and Operation" sector is Yangtze River Power, with total assets of more than 320 billion yuan, net profit in 2021 27.3 billion;

The leader of the "Capital Operation and Finance" sector is the Three Gorges Capital and the Three Gorges Finance;

The leader of the "International Energy Investment and Contract" sector is the Three Gorges International;

Three Gorges New Energy is the leader of the "New Energy Development and Operation" sector.

The chairman of the Yangtze River Electric Power is also the chairman of the Three Gorges Group Lei Mingshan, and the chairman of the Three Gorges New Energy is Wang Wubin. "There is no small personnel", to a certain extent, the chairman's candidate reflects the status of the Yangtze River Power and Three Gorges New Energy in the group.

2) The emergence of "grab the tide"

Three Gorges New Energy mainly invest in wind power and photovoltaic projects. The proportion of hydropower has always been very small, and in order to avoid competing with other companies under the Three Gorges Group, hydropower assets will be gradually stripped.

The positioning of the Three Gorges New Energy is "Scenery Three Gorges" and "Sea Wind Power Leaders". The development strategy is "scenery collaborative, co -sea and land advancement".

At the end of 2017, wind power installed capacity was 4.9GW, accounting for 65.8%of the total installed capacity; wind power generation reached 9.23 billion kWh, accounting for 75.9%of the total power generation.

In 2020, wind power installed capacity and power generation accounted for 56.9%and 68.2%, respectively.

In 2021, the proportion of wind and electricity was picked up. At the end of the year, the installed capacity reached 14.3GW, accounting for 62.3%of the total installed capacity, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from the end of 2020. The annual power generation volume reached 22.9 billion kWh, accounting for 69.2%of the total power generation, an increase of 1 percentage point year -on -year.

According to relevant policies, new offshore wind power projects will not enjoy subsidies from January 1, 2022, so the sea wind power "tide" of offshore wind power appears in 2021, and the new installation capacity of the year reached 16.9GW. The Three Gorges New Energy took 3.2GW, and the market share was close to 20%, which can be described as the first.

3) The "Millennium Top" of the Wind Power Mogical Promotion

First look at the photovoltaic: In 2017, Duodian revenue was 0.75 yuan, 0.61 yuan in 2019, and 0.52 yuan in 2021. The profit of Mao Mao also declined year by year: 0.41 yuan in 2017, 0.34 yuan in 2019, and 0.29 yuan in 2021. Fortunately, the gross profit margin has been maintained at 55%.

Looking at the wind power again: in 2017, the gross profit margin was 53.3%, the 2019 increased to 56.8%, the 60%in 2020, and 60.4%in 2021.

The wind power project that is connected by the end of 2021 can continue to receive subsidies. Since 2022, the new installation capacity does not enjoy subsidies, and it will inevitably lower the overall gross profit margin. Therefore, the gross profit margin of 60%of the wind power in 2021 is "Millennium Top".

4) Development mode

The high -quality assets of the Three Gorges Group gave the Yangtze River Electric Power. The task of the Three Gorges New Energy was to "open up the territory". The required funds were raised through equity financing and debt financing.

In 2019, the total capacity of the Three Gorges New Energy has just exceeded 10GW; in 2020, it increased significantly to 15.6GW; in 2021, another 7.3GW, the total installed capacity at the end of the year reached 22.9GW. The capacity of the construction machine is 11.1GW. This is the main reason why the capital market "looks high" for the Three Gorges New Energy.

In 2020, the Three Gorges New Energy net assets and total liabilities were 46.4 billion, 96.1 billion, respectively, and the net asset liabilities rate was 207%, and the total assets were 142.6 billion.

After the huge IPO financing in 2021, net assets increased to 76.6 billion, total liabilities also increased to 140.6 billion, net asset -liability ratio fell to 18.4 billion, and total assets increased to 217.2 billion.

In 2021, the Three Gorges New Energy deducted non -net profit of 5.1 billion, and the yield of weighted net assets increased to 10.1%. Because IPO financing is nearly 23 billion, the yield of weighted net assets in 2022 will be retracted.

In 2019, 2020, and 2021, the net assets of the Yangtze River Power's net assets were 14.8%, 16.7%, and 14.9%, respectively, significantly higher than that of the Three Gorges New Energy. In 2021, the net outflow of the Three Gorges New Energy Operation Activities was 8.82 billion yuan, and the net outflow of investment activities was 34.9 billion, which was almost 4 times that of operating cash inflows. The net inflow of cash inflow of fundraising activities was 37.2 billion.

The Three Gorges New Energy Development model can be explained by "integration, investment, management, and retreat. Different from the asset management company is the way to "retreat" -not to sell it, but for a long time to operate and rely on grid -connected power generation to earn electricity to pick up the electricity fee, the capital turnover period is greatly extended.

The path of the development of the Three Gorges New Energy is inefficient, asset -heavy, extension expansion, and the benefits are highly related to subsidies. To make revenue and net profit grow rapidly, it will need to "smash money" for 10 billion yuan. Toring up and tossing the return on net assets can only be barely maintained at the 10%line.

In the power industry of the central enterprise Linli, the "Guo Zi" includes the State Grid, the National Electric Power Investment, the State Energy Group ... and the five major power generation groups: Datang Group, China Electric Group, China Resources Group, Zhongguang Nuclear, Luneng Group ...

Three Gorges New Energy does not have special advantages in competing for high -quality projects; power generation equipment is purchased from Jinfeng, Oriental Electric, Vision, and Yunda, and the Three Gorges New Energy has no core technology; It's not counted.

Changjiang Power Property earnings only 20 times, and the new energy of the Three Gorges was obviously overestimated.

China Electricity Construction, 1.5 trillion contracts in hand

1) Revenue structure

China Electricity Construction's main business includes: engineering contracting and exploration design (referred to as "engineering contracting"), "power investment and operation" (referred to as "electricity construction investment"), real estate development, equipment manufacturing and leasing. Engineering contracting and power investment are the core business. The real estate business will withdraw strategically, and the equipment manufacturing business is small and has nothing to do with the overall situation.

China Electric Power Construction is the first brand of hydropower planning and design and construction. The share in the Chinese hydropower market is as high as 80%. 29th.

The proportion of project contract revenue accounted for more than 80%, and the gross profit contribution rate slowly declined: in 2021, the project contract revenue was 373 billion yuan, accounting for 83%of the total revenue; 68.2%(2017 this ratio is 73.5%).

The proportion of power investment business has been below 5%, but the contribution rate of gross profit is as high as 10%. In 2021, power investment revenue was 20.3 billion yuan, accounting for 4.5%of revenue; gross profit was 8.3 billion, accounting for 14.1%of total gross profit.

China Electric Power Construction is also the king of wind power/photovoltaic construction. It takes 65%of the wind power/photovoltaic project planning and design. The size of photovoltaic EPC (design, procurement, construction, and service general contracting) is the world's first in the world.

2) "Three -level Rockets"

Learn from the "three -level rocket" model of Internet companies to analyze China Electricity Construction:

In the first level, the exploration, planning, and design of hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic items.

There are 9 national R & D institutions, 11 academician workstations, and 44,000 technicians under China Power Construction Group. Entrusted by the relevant state ministries and commissions, the planning and review functions of hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic projects are popular in general.

In comparison, there are only 25 new energy sources with a market value of 168.9 billion!

Investing billions of clean energy projects, whether the site selection, whether the design/construction plan is feasible, whether the operation is safe, and the economic benefits ... exploration, planning, and design are equivalent to the preliminary examination. 80%of the country's hydropower and 65%of wind power/ The photovoltaic project is made by China Electric Power.

The second level, EPC general contract.

The projects designed by China Electricity Construction are constructed by other units, which will inevitably occur in communication and coordination. Investment of billions of projects will cause considerable economic losses for a day.

"One guest is not annoying and two masters" is the best choice for investors, provided that China Electric Power Construction is willing to provide general contracting services. #Can be "picked and thin"#

In 2021, the new contract of China Electricity Construction was 780.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9%year -on -year; the project revenue was 372.3 billion (equivalent to completing the contract), an increase of 12%year -on -year; the total amount of hand in hand in the hand of the year reached 1.46 trillion, a year -on -year increase of 32.4%.

Among the new 780.2 billion contracts in 2021, 616 billion from domestic, an increase of 30.6%year -on -year, 164.2 billion from abroad, a year -on -year decrease of 18.5%.

Among the new contract in 2021, 240 billion yuan from energy power, an increase of 28.6%year -on -year (of which the construction contract for pumping storage power stations was 20.2 billion, a year -on -year increase of 343%); 362 billion from infrastructure, an increase of 9.2%year -on -year (of which 103.2 billion municipal construction was 103.2 billion yuan A year -on -year increase of 35.5%; highway construction 62.2 billion, a year -on -year increase of 52.9%); 129.5 billion from water resources and environment, a year -on -year decrease of 12%.

The 1.5 trillion contract is in hand, and the hair profit exceeds the market value.

The third level, electricity investment.

As China Power Construction's "2021 Report" said: "The power investment and operation business are closely linked to the engineering contracting and exploration design business, which is an extension of the company's industrial chain."

Provide "one -stop" services for exploration, planning, design, construction, and service. China Electricity Construction has a "knowledge of the roots" and has a considerable right to speak. There is no such advantage in the Three Gorges New Energy. The quality of the project is slightly inferior--

In 2020, the power construction investment was similar to the installed capacity of the Three Gorges New Energy. The revenue of power construction investment was 18.9 billion yuan, and the annual income of 1.17 yuan per watt; the Three Gorges New Energy revenue was 11.3 billion yuan, and the annual income of 0.73 yuan per watt;

In 2021, the installed capacity of the Three Gorges New Energy increased to 22.9GW, with revenue of 15.5 billion yuan, an annual income of 0.68 yuan per watt; the investment revenue of power construction was 20.3 billion yuan, and the annual income of each watt was still 1.17 yuan, 73.1%higher than the Three Gorges New Energy.

In 2021, the profit margin of the Three Gorges New Energy was as high as 58.4%, while the gross profit margin of the China Power Construction Investment Plate was 40.9%. The main reason is that the capacity of the Three Gorges New Energy Wind Power Machines accounted for 62.3%, and the profit margin of the wind power after enjoying subsidies exceeded 60%.

The "Prospectus" disclosed that from 2017 to 2019, the amount of subsidies for the Three Gorges New Energy was 2.41 billion, 2.35 billion, and 2.31 billion, respectively, and the net profit of the three years was 2.4 billion, 2.7 billion, and 2.8 billion, respectively. Subsidies have no effect on the stock projects, but the profitability of new installed capacity has doubled.

The capacity of electricity construction is close to 40%, and the wind power is about 36%.

The installed capacity is huge investment and "replaced". Electricity building investment per watt is ahead. In the long run, the gross profit margin of the Three Gorges New Energy may not be able to win.

3) "Oolong" invested by institutional investment

Although the investment in power construction is different from the Three Gorges New Energy, it can be said that its "low gross profit margin", "high hydropower proportion, photovoltaic/wind power accounting to be increased", but it cannot be regarded as nothing or considers the Three Gorges with the Three Gorges Gorges. New energy is comparable. The current valuation of the Three Gorges New Energy is high or low, and the investment in power construction should be observed with its equal amount.

The sector with less than 5%of China Power Construction revenue can be observed with the amount of new energy of the Three Gorges, while the market value of China Power Construction is only 60%of the latter. Could it be called ace's hydropower exploration design, the fifth global construction force, 1.5 trillion in hand contracts, and the pumping storage business that is about to usher in the explosive growth is negative? This may be the largest oolong in the A -share market.

You are welcome to say: Fund managers who buy the new energy of the Three Gorges, do not understand new energy!

For example, a fund called "XX Balanced Optimum", the Three Gorges New Energy is the sixth warehouse stock, and the market value of the holding of the fund exceeds 5%of the fund's net value. There are four airlines (Air China, China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, and auspicious) in front of them. The epidemic is serious, the oil prices are high, and the airline loses a lot. The fund manager's idea is nothing more than a good -looking epidemic, Russia and Ukraine, the plunge of international oil prices, aviation recovery, and stock prices. It is necessary to gamble, and one -third of the net assets of the fund is gambling. The civil aviation industry recovers.

What is more urgent than investor education is the education of public fund managers. A considerable part of them lacks responsibility and research ability, and takes Kenmin's Qian Bo's personal future.

*The above analysis is for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice