House prices will continue to rise!This is rough words and not rough2022-05-20 18:12:19 24 ℃
Rising house prices is a very sensitive topic and a big topic. However, in the opinion of the editor, house prices will continue to rise. This is a proposition of roughness.
Looking at the house price from the height of house prices, it is just a house, but the price is not clear. This price is the value of value. Only from the perspective of currency supply trends can we see the essence of house prices. This price is a real existence of future house prices.
This is what Xiaobian has always emphasized that buying a house cannot judge the value from a time point, but to determine which price of house prices will reach from a cycle.
Is this feeling like the stock market? Seeing a time point to determine the buying and selling. This kind of chasing and killing is always a leek to be cut, so the stock market has a "value investment".
In the final analysis, value investment is to see a certain stock. It is necessary to operate from a value release cycle, see the rise and fall during the diluted period, and determine the purchase or sale when it meets the expectations in the mind.
However, the stock market water is too deep and there is no rules at all. This is not alarmist, nor is it Xiaobian said.
Mr. Wu Jinglun, an economics, said that the Chinese stock market is not as good as a casino. Buffett recently said that the stock market in the past two years is like a casino.
It means that people who have played stocks will probably understand, and those who do not understand will not understand anymore.
Compared to the stock market, the market market is much simpler and rude. Although the property market since the 1990s, although there have been intermittent declines in the middle. : Starve to death, daring.
Without saying anything else, take Dongguan as an example.
In the early 1990s, the unit price of Donghu Garden was less than 1,000 yuan; in 2000, Dongtai Garden was 1,000-2000 yuan/square meter; the new century garden in 2002 was about 3,000 yuan/square meter; the legend of Xinghe 3,000-4000 yuan/square meter in 2004.
In 2005, the ideal 0769 opened more than 2000 in the unit price. By the fourth phase of Qinyuan, the price rose to 9000-10,000 yuan/square meter. This is a microcosm of Dongguan real estate during this period.
In 2008, Dongguan Real Estate encountered the first low tide. The price reduction was a conventional operation. Developers made up the market. It is said that Xiping's Golden Huating has returned the difference to the owner.
There are also bold people in the low tide. At this time, a friend of the Detective Director started a set of more than 100 square meters of three bedrooms in Golden Huating. Now the transaction price is 40,000+. Don't be convinced.
In 2009, the Dongguan property market slowly recovered, and house prices entered a period of steady rising period. Until 2015, it rose crazy by Shenzhen.
How much does this round of house prices have risen?
The earliest official data checked by the editor was the "Signing Sales Sales Sales Sales Online in January 2014" issued by the Dongguan Statistics Bureau. After that, the corresponding data was released every month.
In the official monthly data, Xiaobian did not calculate the average annual price, but only selected the latest official announcement of April data, and roughly sorted out the average price of the new house in April in April in recent years.
In April 2014, the average price of new houses in Dongguan was 9,122 yuan/square meter. In April 2015, it was 9239 yuan/square meter. On the eve of the price soaring, it seemed mild.
In April 2016, the average price of new houses in Dongguan reached 13,256 yuan/square meter, and the unit price rose 4017 yuan, which was about 43.5%year -on -year. Compared with March 2016, the price of new houses in Dongguan also increased by 10.7%month -on -month.
In 2016, many people felt that the housing prices in Dongguan had reached the top, but the market taught the timid people. In 2019, Dongguan also followed Shenzhen and began another round of skyrocketing.
In April 2018, the price of new houses in Dongguan was 16,955 yuan/square meter, and 19250 yuan/square meter in April 2019; the average price of new houses in Dongguan in April 2020, 22,439 yuan/square meter, and 24179 yuan/square meter in April 2021.
Recently, the Dongguan Housing and Urban Construction Bureau announced the new house data in April 2022, with an average price of 29376 yuan/square meter. This price exceeded 29,242 yuan/square meter in January 2021, refreshing a new height of the average monthly price of the monthly monthly house in Dongguan.
Let's go back to the average price of the new house in Dongguan. In March 2022, the average price of the new house in Dongguan was 28023 yuan/square meter. This is the third highest place in Dongguan today.
The price of new housing in Dongguan has been hovering in a high level, indicating that the housing prices in Dongguan are not supported by a single or high price disk, but a considerable demand basis. This demand foundation is suppressed by the policy and silent for a while. God, there is a possibility to accelerate the release.
Judging from the rising trajectory of housing prices, in Dongguan's house prices, after two highs in 2008 and 2016, standing at a high level of nearly 30,000 yuan. Will this be the ceiling of house prices?
Xiaobian's point of view is denying, because house prices are no longer a living problem, nor are they not just investing in funding, but also the depreciation of the assets issued by hedging currency.
From a static perspective, the total amount of currency issuance in China in 2021 reached 2.2765 trillion yuan, while the GDP of the same period was about 1.14 trillion yuan. Essence
From the perspective of the acceleration trend of currency issuance since the 1990s, the gap between the total social value -added and the total amount of currency issuance in the future is still increasing. How fast is the currency issuance? Xiaobian has no statistics, but Ren Zeping gave us a numerical value. This annual growth rate is 15%, which means that the RMB cash asset depreciates 15%each year. The depreciation rate will be even more scary.
The impact of capital will be hedged on the addition of currency issuance, in addition to what areas can be done in addition to the real estate. In fact, the additional currency also entered real estate from the aspects of supply and demand.
In this regard, Mr. Wu Jinglian said in an interview that a large part of the currency issuance has entered real estate, which has caused continuous rise in house prices and deepening the sharp contradiction between the house prices in the city.
It can be seen that the current housing price problem is actually a large extent a contradiction between increasing currency to hedge the depreciation. We see that the gap between currency supply and GDP since the 1990s and GDP is increasing. Do you still feel that the probability of rising house prices has a greater probability of decline?
Those who see through the currency income are actually acting.
Recently, the Qian Niufu of Dongguan CBD has a wave of housing in the wind, although the relative record price is to increase the price at a expensive price. However, some fans on the Dongguan building platform are still very resolutely prepared to start, which shows that the asset family's desire for purchasing high -quality real estate is very urgent.
From the contact of the case in the past two months, the price of new houses in Dongguan has repeatedly reached high. In the eyes of capital, under the needs of hedging currency depreciation, house prices have really only risen one truth, but it is just a matter of faster or slower!
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