A -share slow cow is reappeared?Staff strategy research judgment in the second half of the year: Growth stocks may still need to return to the market style switching

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A -share slow cow is reappeared?Staff strategy research judgment in the second half of the year: Growth stocks may still need to return to the market style switching

2022-06-23 18:08:13 14 ℃

21st Century Business Herald reporter Wang Yuanyuan Shanghai report

As June is coming, the mid -term strategies of various brokerage institutes will be held one after another.

The market in the first half of this year was not friendly, and it continued to fall in January, which made participants from all parties in the secondary market feel frustrated. Until the end of April, the market had a stable situation. By June 22, it had rebounded for nearly two months.

At this time, the subsequent market will end the rebound, or the situation of continuing rebound in the second half of the year and continue to repair it. It has become the topic of investors' attention. Each broker also analyzed and judged the topic.

CITIC Securities: Focus on growth stocks

CITIC Securities believes that in the second half of the year, Russia -Ukraine's conflict and US dollar tightening have had the greatest impact on A shares. The Shanghai epidemic has significantly alleviated the strengthening of market confidence, and the economic development and epidemic prevention and control will be more coordinated. A package of stable growth policies form a joint force, and the market has continuously strengthened the expectations of fundamental improvement. A -share slow cows are reappeared. It is expected that the market will go through three stages during the year, and it is currently in the second stage.

The first stage is the emotional calm period in May, and the market risk appetite is rapidly repairing the driver to overwhelm the overlook.

The second phase is the valuation restoration period from June to August, and the policy is driven by the policy to drive the fundamental expectations. It mainly includes three aspects of expectations: 1) the stable growth policy is densely landed, and joint force began in June; 2) After the performance of the interim report, A shares will enter the phase of the fundamental medium -term repair stage; 3) Reuse of manufacturing, consumption, and medical rotation.

The third stage is the valuation switching period from September to the fourth quarter, which is driven by profit recovery and external pressure relief. Including three aspects of prediction: 1) the tightening rhythm of the US dollar slows down and the foreign trade environment is expected to improve; 2) the market enters the stable period, and the market returns the relative prosperity logic of fundamental driving; Growth performance and "specialty new" gradually dominate.

CITIC Securities believes that private equity, foreign capital and insurance capital are the main sources of incremental funds in institutions in the second half of the year. It is expected to recover slowly in the second half of the year, but the stocks are facing a certain amount of redemption pressure. Private equity, foreign capital, and insurance capital will become the main source of funds for incremental institutions in the second half of the year.

In addition, CITIC Securities believes that in the second half of 2022-2023, the eastward movement of trams, new energy, and electronic industries continues to bring a large number of Capex growth, and equipment and material-based enterprises grow rapidly; The advantages of growth stocks are prominent.

CICC: "Shou" and then "attack", the market style switch to growth needs opportunities

CICC believes that in the second half of the year, overseas transitions from trading to transaction to "how to get out of stagnation" in transactions, and China strives to "steadily grow" in the prevention and control of the epidemic. The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is at a low level of historical interval and has the mid -line value. In the second half of the year, the inner and outer environment of the market may still face certain challenges, and more active catalyst support is required. Therefore, it is recommended that investors seek "stability" first, and then wait for the opportunity to "enter".

其表示,下半年行业配置与择时需要考虑的内外部因素除了估值及流动性因素外,包括稳增长政策、疫情、海外由“胀”而“滞”、地缘局势演进、潜在的能源及Grain supply impact, important political events at home and abroad, etc.

Taken together, it is recommended to focus on "stability", first guarding and attacking.

1) Currently continue to be "stable", follow the following three directions: A) "Steady growth" related or policy support: infrastructure (traditional infrastructure and some new infrastructure), building materials, automobiles and housing -related, etc. There are industries with policy expectations or actual policies; B) areas with low valuations and relatively high correlation with macro volatility, especially some high -dividend areas: such as infrastructure, electricity and public utilities, hydropower, etc.; C) Basic Seeing the bottom, limited supply, or the continued improvement of the prosperity: agriculture, part of the colored and part of the chemical industry, coal, photovoltaic and military industry, etc. Temporarily standard or low -ending of growth sections with high valuations, high expectations, and high positions.

2) The time point of "steady" and "enter" switching: Considering the relatively low market valuation, the continuous growth of Chinese policies, and the sensitivity of the market's policy effects. Pay high attention to the intensity and potential effects of steady growth.

3) Style selection: Although the growth style is more adjusted at the beginning of the year, the valuation has decreased, and the value style is relatively winning, the current style interpretation may be affected by global factors and has global characteristics. Overseas inflation and China's steady growth.

4) Large category assets: China's equity assets may have relatively toughness compared to overseas after callback. The main commodities may gradually exceed the supply constraints in the influence of the demand, and the bond market has certain opportunities under the loose policy.

5) Focus on theme: Based on policy, epidemic and valuation and other factors, you can follow the theme in stages: A) Stable growth theme; b) high prosperity theme; c) supply constraint combination; Valuation, high dividend combination; f) Deep down high -quality growth combination.

CITIC Investment: Focus on the marginal improvement of consumption and equipment manufacturing in the second half of the year

CITIC Construction Investment believes that in terms of international environment, under the superposition of multiple risks, the vulnerability of global markets has risen, and my country and other emerging economies are facing negative impacts such as capital flow, exchange rates, and markets, but the probability of systemic crisis is not high. In -depth changes in international relations, the United States still regards China as its main strategic competitors, seeking to regain the leading position of the Asia -Pacific region. The dawn of the Sino -U.S. In terms of domestic economy, the end of the year has better endogenous momentum. Since March, it has been impacted by the epidemic since March, and the economy has entered a special operating state. The economic downturn pressure in April is particularly obvious. The economic operation in May has gradually moved closer to normal level, but the recovery process is the recovery process. Slowly, GDP is expected to increase by about 2%in the second quarter, becoming the bottom of the year. In the second half of the year, the economy is basically normal, and the channels for stable growth policy will be more unobstructed. The growth rate of GDP is expected to rise to more than 6%. In terms of demand structure, this year's policy actively promotes full -time expansion of domestic demand. The rhythm of consumption recovery after the epidemic is expected to be almost 2020. The high growth of infrastructure investment is strong. The prospect of real estate investment is expected to improve. It is difficult to reverse the general trend, and the growth rate is expected to gradually fall. The inflation is mild and controllable, and the stable growth policy will not be restricted.

CITIC Construction Investment believes that the energy industry is unique, and the fundamentals still remain strong in the second half of the year. In the second half of this year, focusing on the marginal improvement of consumption and equipment manufacturing.

Guojin Securities: Focus on growth and pay attention to consumption

Guojin Securities believes that emotional restoration drives the market twists and turns, and the fundamental reversal will promote the trend reversal. However, there are three basic assumptions in the market interpretation in the second half of the year: the epidemic is efficiently cleared, the policy is economic, and the upstream prices have slowed down.

Guojin Securities said that the fundamental reversal in the second half of the year will promote the promotion of the market owner, from the perspective of the fundamental reversal of the fundamental reversal from the two dimensions of macro and micro. 1) macro aspects, credit and economic bottoms have appeared. In the second half of the year, PPI, especially the middle and lower reaches of PPI, may slow down. The price increase of resources has slowed down, that is, the upstream mining PPI seemed to fall in the fall, and the improvement of the middle and lower reaches of profit margin will drive the overall company's profit to rise.

In terms of market style, Guojin Securities believes that they should focus on growth and pay attention to consumption.

Guojin Securities believes that the relative performance of growth stocks has improved and profit margins have improved. From the perspective of relative performance, the improvement of midstream and downstream profit margins will drive the performance of the relative value sector to dominate. Most of the upstream resource products industry belongs to the value style. Under the trend of upstream resource price increases, the net profit growth rate of value sectors has improved significantly. However, with the improvement of midstream and downstream profit margins, the relative performance of the growth sector concentrated in the middle and lower reaches will improve significantly.

In terms of consumption, business consumption recovers faster, and durable consumption waiting policies. Guojin Securities said that the recovery of some consumer goods depends mainly on the repair of consumer scenarios, such as business consumption -related mid -to -high -end liquor. The recovery of durable consumer goods is greatly affected by residents' income, and policy boosting consumption is the biggest marginal change in the durable consumer goods industry.

Specifically: 1) Growth: Waiting for new energy sectors such as scenery storage network to continue to rise. Layout TMT bias to hard technology sections, such as communication, computer, and some strong application semiconductors, etc.; 2) consumption: pay attention to the marginal changes of the consumer sector, on the one hand, focus on the business consumption (liquor, etc.) that recovers faster after the epidemic, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, on the other hand, Pay attention to the durable consumer goods (automobiles, home appliances, etc.) under the promotion fee; 3) other aspects: Follow the value of the configuration of the brokerage sector.

Guohai Securities: optional recovery, growth return

Guohai Securities believes that the economic recovery momentum is weakened, the economic recovery of the China and the United States, and the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak. It needs to rely on domestic demand to make efforts. The overall pattern of domestic demand and foreign demand is downward. In the domestic demand, the infrastructure is stable, and the real estate, consumption and services will usher in repair. In the chain of foreign demand, export-manufacturing is tough. This year's overseas inflation is difficult to fall, and domestic inflation is difficult to look up. It is essentially the space for American consumption to stimulate this round. China's investment impulse is insufficient.

In terms of liquidity, global liquidity has been tightened to halfway, and subsequent attention to the signal of the Fed's stop rate hike, including the inflation inflection point and unemployment rate. The range and rhythm of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter will ease. The highlight of the domestic liquidity lies in the use of structural monetary policy tools. The stability of the credit end is important. The core is to find a carrier of leverage. Government departments add leverage to avoid deleveraging of the residential departments is the key to breaking the situation.

In terms of policy, the total domestic currency policy space is constrained, and the possibility of non -symmetrical interest rate reduction is still based on structural tools in the second half of the year. This year's fiscal expenditure is obvious. Special bonds, reserved tax refund and other existing instruments have entered the final stage. In the second half of the year, we will pay attention to the introduction of incremental policy tools such as special government bonds and supplementary mortgage loans. In terms of industrial policies, focusing on the normalization of platform economic management, traditional energy security confession, and new energy -related policies.

In terms of market strategies, A shares may interpret the performance of US stocks in 2011-2012, that is, the European debt crisis was rushed out of the "golden pit". It has been sufficient, the follow -up economy is stable, the domestic liquidity amplifies policies are positive, valuation will usher in repair, and the market will usher in good investment opportunities.

In terms of industry configuration, you can choose to warm up and return. In the second half of the year, the style of the market tends to be balanced, and consumption and growth will be better than cycles and finance. It suggests that the industry configuration pays attention to the three main lines. Main line 1: The demand under macro -driven changes, focusing on optional consumption and real estate post -cycle industries, such as cars, home appliances, home, high -end liquor; main line 2: policy -driven prosperity improvement, focusing on TOG and platform economy, such as military workers, such as military workers , Photovoltaic wind power, semiconductor equipment, chips, Internet, etc.; main line three: new+new theme driven by the new normal -driven epidemic, such as new consumption (small appliances, prefabricated dishes, group purchase, consumer electronics), new medicine (vaccine, Chinese medicine, testing, testing ), New infrastructure (new energy, data center, industrial Internet) and other tracks.

Zhejiang Business Securities: see more stable growth chain

Zhejiang Commercial Securities is expected to improve the margin of the consumption and service industry in the second half of the year, with investment and industrial resonance.

With the implementation of normalized nucleic acid testing, consumption to bottom out has a strong certainty, and the service industry simultaneously presents a recoverable growth trend, maintaining the trend of Nike -shaped in the annual economy, and is expected to grow 43%of the GDP throughout the year. Normal nucleic acid testing is conducive to the acceleration of the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, consumption continues to converge horizontally before the epidemic, and the marginal improvement of the ultimate consumption will significantly improve. At the same time, we suggest that the investment terminal will continue the higher prosperity in the early stage. Among them, urban renewal is more to drive real estate investment. Supply shortage and structural transformation are the dual main line of manufacturing investment. Infrastructure investment highlights the policy -driven efforts. On the whole, normalized nucleic acid testing can help coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and logistics supply. It is expected that the probability of consumption will continue to recover, and the market entity confidence and expectations will gradually boost.

Zhejiang Business Securities said that A -shares will show structural characteristics, and the expected differences brought about by recovering the flow of people with aviation airports, tourism hotels, catering, etc. In addition, continue to look at more stable growth chains, such as finance, real estate, construction, building materials, suggesting that in the future, focusing on the growth of growth stock investment after the U.S. Treasury yields in the third quarter. field.