The Boss of the Han Dynasty Philippines has reached a new low one after another, and the Asian currency defense war has been fully upgraded

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The Boss of the Han Dynasty Philippines has reached a new low one after another, and the Asian currency defense war has been fully upgraded

2022-06-24 12:36:01 6 ℃

21st Century Business Herald reporter Chen Zhi Shanghai report

Under the impact of the yen's endless, more and more Asian currencies have suddenly opened up sharp depreciation.

As of 18:00 on June 23, the US dollar against the Philippine peso exchange rate hovered around 54.66, and it once touched 54.7 in the session. This is the lowest point for the Philippines Pesas in the past 16 years.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Korean won is hovering around 1304.01, and the session once touched 1307.8, which is also the lowest value of the Korean won in the past 12 years.

In addition, the US dollar touched 35.5 against the Thai baht, which is gradually approaching the highest value of 36.64 since 2016, which indicates that the lowest point in the past six years is "not far away."

A Wall Street Hedge Fund manager revealed to reporters that the global hedge fund suddenly increased its short -selling efforts to Asian currencies, mainly affected by two major factors. One is that Japan and Southeast Asian countries belong to export -oriented economies. Capital bets in Southeast Asian countries have adopted the depreciation of currency competition to maintain their own export competitiveness. Significantly shrinking has attracted many speculative capital to bet on Asian currency exchange rates to continue to depreciate.

A foreign exchange broker told reporters that the global hedge fund is still relatively restrained to the short -selling Asian currency. One of the important reasons is that in the past many years, Asian countries have accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves, making them taboo.

"However, if the Fed's continuous interest rate hike has led to a sharp decline in US stock bonds and dragging down the shrinkage of foreign exchange reserves in Asian countries, these hedge funds will seize the opportunity to launch short -selling attacks." He pointed out.

Eugenia Victorino, director of the Asian Strategy Director of Sweden (SEB), believes that the currency policy of Asian countries may affect whether the Asian currency can successfully resist this round of short trends. Increased value pressure.

The above -mentioned foreign exchange brokers said that in addition, global speculative capital and hedge funds are still paying close attention to the sharp depreciation of the yen in the "acquiescence" of the "acquiescence" of the Japanese Bank of Japan, and whether other Asian currencies will have a competitive depreciation.

"What is the most happy to see capital now is that more and more countries have acquiesced in the competitiveness of the country in order to maintain their export competitiveness, which will make their short -selling strategy make a lot of money." He pointed out. However, this will undoubtedly lead to the increased economic fluctuations in the Asia -Pacific region and the instability of the financial market, which constitutes a new uncertainty to the global allocation of assets of many large asset management institutions.

Han Mono and the Philippines Peso Sung Single "Testing Gold Stone"

From the perspective of the above -mentioned Wall Street Hedge Fund, the decline of the yen has made more and more global hedge funds shifting the short -selling sniper target to other Asian currencies. Its short -selling logic is also relatively simple -Japan and Southeast Asian countries are foreign trade export -oriented economies. Once the devaluation of the yen has led Japanese companies to seize the export share, it may cause other Asian countries to set off currency competitive depreciation to maintain its own export share.

This has led to more and more hedge funds this week taking Hando and Philippine peso as the new short -selling target.

He believes that the reason why hedge funds and speculative capital choose the Han won and the Philippines Peso is because they discover that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The difference between the spread of currency against the dollar suddenly narrowed, and it is easier to cause storms such as capital outflows.

Earlier, Felipe Medalla, the upcoming president of the Philippine Central Bank, emphasized that the Philippine Central Bank is unlikely to increase the benchmark interest rate by more than 25 basis points.

At the same time, the Central Bank of Korea continued to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, showing no signs of a single interest rate hike.

The above -mentioned foreign exchange brokers revealed that the current short -selling of hedge funds and speculative capital to the short -selling of the Korean and Philippines Peso is more like a test, because they want to understand whether these central banks take a tough attitude towards the exchange market, and then decide the next short -selling steps to sell the short -selling steps Essence

It is worth noting that Felipe Medalla said that the Philippine central bank is likely to not have a large interest rate hike to curb the devaluation of the Philippine Peso. To some extent, these hedge funds and speculative capital have eaten "reassinual pills".

In his opinion, hedge funds and speculative capital are waiting for the best time to wait for the short -selling Asian currency. For example, the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points in July, but the Asian Central Bank chose "not to follow", or the yen against the US dollar against the US dollar. The exchange rate continued to fall and fell below the 145 integer mark.

Jonathan Ravelas, the chief market strategist of BDO Unibank Inc., believes that if the Philippine central bank does not follow the Fed with a significant interest rate hike, the Philippine peso will likely fall below the historical low.

"At that time, hedge funds can also be devalued by the competitiveness of Asian currencies, attracting more follow -up funds to fight for the Asian currency and maximize the revenue of short -selling strategies." The aforementioned foreign exchange broker bluntly said.

Monetal competitive depreciation pressure "to be solved"

How the Central Bank of Asian countries will cope with the booming pressure of currency short -selling is receiving close attention from the global financial market.

A person in charge of an emerging market investment fund revealed to reporters that given the decline in the slowdown of the global economic recovery and the decline in international trade, the Asian central banks, which are mainly export -oriented, may not follow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sharply. Weakened), it is more likely to interfere with the exchange market in the exchange market to stabilize the currency exchange rate. "In addition, many overseas hedge funds are closely paying close attention to whether Southeast Asian countries will restart foreign exchange control measures to curb the risk of capital outflow." He pointed out. However, in the case of the Fed's continuous rate of interest rate hikes to make the US dollar index rising, these measures may not be able to effectively curb the pressure of currency depreciation in the country.

Reporters have learned that most hedge funds are more concerned about whether Southeast Asian countries still adopt currency competitive depreciation strategies in order to obtain export advantages. Behind this is that individual countries may consider that as long as the export continues the high prosperity, a strong foreign trade surplus will help to curb the decline in the currency exchange rate of the country and play a good role in stabilizing the exchange rate.

"But this will lead to the exchange rate policy of Asian countries. Once a certain country's currency exchange rate has fallen, a chain reaction will easily occur, which will make global speculative capital more crazy about the exchange rate of other Asian countries. Eventually, the scene of the Asian economic crisis was repeated. "The person in charge of the emerging market investment fund admitted frankly. Under such circumstances, Asian countries need to act consensus, through concentration of intervention in the exchange market in various countries and cooperating with interest rate hikes to jointly fight the short -selling strategy of overseas speculative capital.

He pointed out that compared to all Asian export currencies in one -time short -selling, global speculative capital is more inclined to adopt various break -through strategies. Therefore, only unity in Asian countries can break the short -selling abacus of speculative capital.