Innovative medicine Chinese medicine ice fire two days, behind, how long can this round of rich exercise?2022-01-13 12:04:28 39 ℃
"Western medicine is lost, but fortunately there are Chinese medicine stocks." There is an investor to summarize the sashimi of the medical stock in the past few weeks, telling eight to hear.
And on yesterday, on a investor relationship platform, investors suggested that it has been used as the domestic innovative medicine leader of Baji Shenzhou: "Set up the 'alchemy' department to accelerate the purchase of various' refining furnaces, and complete the goddin soon. The benefit of the people, do not blindly worship Western medicine. "
Since November 2021, it has been compared with traditional Chinese medicine in the secondary market, which has formed a stark contrast between the secondary market. Documents that support traditional Chinese medicine inheritance innovation and development of the State Medical Insurance Bureau and the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, in mid-December 2021, push the trend to a peak of another.
In the past six months, chemicals, biologics innovation pharmacists and traditional Chinese medicine companies have been 180 degrees in the policy situation.
Within two weeks before and after New Year's Day, the net value of the main funds of chemical drugs is only 1.483 billion yuan; there are fewer inflow funds in the field of biological products. More than half of the chemical pharmaceuticals, the stock price of biological products has different degrees. Even with innovative, the long-term Beda pharmaceutical industry, Fosun medicine, Baji Shenzhou, Junfei creature, etc., it is also "falling."
The formation of distinctive controls, medical insurance clinical restrictions have long been, and the mechanism of action is unclear and long-term, but the news is constantly being made.
According to Dongfang Wealth Network Data, in the two weeks before and after New Year's Day, the net inflow of the main funds of the Chinese medicine section is 2.5 billion yuan; the A shares are all 71 Chinese medicine stocks, 63 are rising, and the 37 increase exceeds 10%.
In December, the share price of TOP15 last year (excluded within 1 month of stocks and ST stocks), 9 Chinese medicine companies have 9, accounting for 2/3.
Since the secondary market is too enthusiastic, the stock price rose more than 100% in 10 trading days, the transaction is abnormal, and the gods will have to apply for suspension on December 31, 2021. Before the suspension, its price-earning ratio is the share price and the ratio of the earnings per share has been broken.
In the context of the overall downturn of medical stocks, the high-profile growth of this round of Chinese medicine stocks has triggered various sounds.
In the secondary market, major investment agencies have released the development report, demonstrate the medium and long-term investment value of traditional Chinese medicine, even if the investors of investment Chinese medicine stocks also believe that the growth of traditional Chinese medicine companies is limited: "Some well-known Chinese medicine companies have been received by the State-owned Assets Supervision. The stock has risen several times, but the performance is not equal to the same growth. Now there is a policy of policies, so it is valuation, but how to observe in the future. "
On the other side of the industry, the field of innovation drugs, a well-known innovation drug enterprise forwarded by the industry, the company commented: "(New Drug R & D) The efforts of a generation of people will be abolished by this tendency."
Another founder of pharmaceutical companies that have been engaged in new drugs in China in the past 20 years, "Now, I have to speak science," I don't care what I do, it is not the old ancestors. It is going to evidence. Medical certification is only! "
This investment in traditional Chinese medicine is a new round of "God of God" or the return? What is "color" in today's Chinese medicine industry? The future of Chinese medicine is to go to a healthy consumer market, or to fight the market in the hospital, what is the practitioners of Chinese medicine?
Who is rising?
This round of traditional Chinese medicine can be traced back to the end of October, from that, the BK1040 index reflects the overall situation of the Chinese medicine sector is first used for more than a month to over 1220. Up to December 20, this rising curve suddenly became steep, and 10 days rushed to 1594.02 high, over 25%.
From the Chinese Medicine Index, in the first and years of the 20021, the income rate of traditional Chinese medicine and the comparison benchmark yield was basically flat. After that, the Chinese medicine index increased accelerated, gradually pulled away from the benchmark, to January 2022, the difference between the two It has reached around 8%.
In the meantime, major securities companies have announced R & D reports, not in the announcement, although emphasize policy benefits, but in their recommended corporate list, they are not able to eat policies and dividends, but still the film, Tong Ren, health Enterprises such as the main consumer market such as the Group.
This can not say small logic tears. "The Tiezi, Tong Ren Tang has also risen for a long time, their investment logic is completely different." Senior analyst told eight answered.
From the industry, this kind of medicine has been separated from the ranks of ordinary drugs, which are given more special meaning of luxury, financial products, and is not from new political restrictions or support. And truly recent policy "loose" positive companies, but not recommended.
This investment logic of traditional Chinese medicine is almost contrary to the "research project" and the logic of the new track crazy investment in the Chinese medicine industry in recent years.
Since 2018, the China Medical Market has undergone subversive changes, and the era of "sales is king" ended, and innovated became a unique way.
In this difficult transformation, the cost of investing in R & D is greatly improved in this difficult transformation. The head innovation drug enterprise is rampant in R & D, even billion is not fresh, and the research and development investment accounts for more and more companies in revenue.
The investment in traditional Chinese medicine companies in R & D is almost indifferent to the past. According to the industry's public micro-signal "Pharmacy", the research and development of more than 100 million yuan in Juita 2021; R & D investment is more than 10 in total camp, only 10 in total camp; Jianmin Group, Panlong Pharmaceutical, Tai Chi Group, Yunnan Bai Nao, etc. nearly 10 familiar Chinese medicine companies, R & D investment is less than 1%. These traditional Chinese medicine companies tend to choose low-developing "lying" strategies because of the inheritance, which is the inheritance, which is the discolity right of the industrial chain. Mastering the right to scarce and voice, Chinese medicine products want to increase profits, not innovation, but only simple price increase.
On December 1, 2021, Tong Ren Tang's Nonghuang Pill has risen from 780 yuan to 860 yuan, and the price increase is 10%. Since then, the Taiji Group's Huoxiang is an average price of 12%; on the day of New Year's Day, Jiuzhitang also announced the price adjustment to the customer, involving 21 kinds of plans, and the price increase is up to 30%.
The reason for price adjustment is, alleged, mainly the cost of raw materials and other costs.
According to the news, the price of Chinese herbal medicines has been rising, and more than 50 medicinal materials have doubled in 2021, and some medicinal materials are yellow, and the daily prices exceeded 300%, and the white lentils rose 800%. . And according to forecasts, the price increase will last until 2022 in the first half of the year.
"This shows that the source price is unblocked to the upstream passage." There is an investor disclosure. Tong Ren Tang, Dong'a Ejiao, Catch, etc., the stock price has risen.
From the market value, the film, Yunnan white medicine is already more than 100 billion, and the market value of Tong Ren Tang is also approaching 100 billion. According to financial statistics, in 10 years, Tong Ren Tang has increased by more than 230% in the secondary market, and the film is over 3,000%!
Under the fluctuation of raw materials, the price increase of expensive drugs, OTC (non-prescription drugs), in the case of continuous advancement of medical reform, although there are not many innovations, but the consumer goods that can be looked, the luxury Chinese medicine products seem to be more secure .
It is also, therefore, the major securities companies are emphasizing the health and collection of minigures, but in the list of companies recommended, they are still the main consumption market, such as the consumer market, such as the company's list.
One-hand "cultural confidence"
One-hand "policy landing"
However, even the recommended list of Chinese medicine companies is often available from consumer medical care, rather than purely optimistic Chinese medicine. One of the facts that cannot be oblocked is that the national level is always protected and encouraged by the attitude of Chinese medicine.
Since 2015, the "People's Republic of China" has been promulgated; "" China Medical Development Strategic Plan (2016-2030) " Medical development has set a tone.
Multi-industry people and investors emphasize 8 o'clock: Chinese medicine self-confidence is also part of cultural confidence. This actually points to the inevitability of the development of the Chinese medicine industry.
However, for a long time, although the macro is encouraged, because lack of solid landing documents, in the investment market, traditional Chinese medicine stocks have been growing weak, not warm. The aforementioned BK1040 index, in the beginning of 2021, it is slow growth. The growth trend after November has begun to gradually be steep. From December, the single week increased once more than 11%.
The first-level market is also interested in traditional Chinese medicine stocks, and there are fewer investment in Chinese medicine.
"Traditional Chinese medicine is relatively unparalleled. Western medicine can sell globally, the top of Chinese medicine is more selling China." Senior people in the industry told 8th sneakers.
In the second half of 2021, the long-term tightening policy suddenly relaxed. From the report of the Securities Company, the national medical insurance negotiation, in the results of the drug collection of Hubei Province, the price reduction of Chinese medicine is relatively moderate, the Chinese medicine innovation drug approved in 2021 has also created the most historical, with 11, and part The company's own active adjustment has brought expectations in performance growth or growth. It is a key stimulating factor.
The most important "One Fire" comes from the last day of 2021, the National Medical Insurance Bureau, the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Guidance of the Inheritance of Medicine in Medicine and Support Chinese Medicine".
As can be seen from this document, although public hospital drugs have been "zero difference" sales, Chinese medicine drinks can still be bonused by 20% to 25% of sales; the hospital and company's headache DRG, DIP reform, in some Chinese medicine The area can also be not performed yet.
"This is the first time by the medical insurance department, making a commitment to the medical insurance payment of traditional Chinese medicine. The past poor policy is hanging, this is the first time." The aforementioned senior analyst told 8th agencies.
In February 2021, 4 departments jointly issued a diploma for more than 20 years of pilot, which will entered a larger scale growth period. According to the relevant regulations, the formula granules are managed in accordance with Chinese herbal medicines, that is to say, it can be added, in Zhejiang, Yunnan, Beijing, etc., this category is also included in medical insurance payment.
The new document has achieved madness of the Chinese medicine after New Year's Day, and this logic is slightly different from the past Chinese medicine big rising logic.
"The main force of this wave is the Chinese herbal medicine drink and formula granules." A senior analyst told 8 o'clock, "the state encourages the development of Chinese medicine to finally land." In the nearly 10 trading days after the new file released Red Japanese Pharmaceutical (804%), and Essence Pharmaceutical (76.42%) and China Runan (33.44%), etc. are related to formula granules.
Previously, although the policy was not clear about the attitude of Chinese medicine formula, the traditional Chinese medicine is also controversial. However, after the traditional Chinese medicine injection market shrinks, the formula granules serve as a new profit growth point, or it has become a pharmaceutical industry to compete for layout. Hotspots. According to heads, there are currently more than 60 enterprises in the country.
Under the expectation of the policy, the head analysis report predicted that by 2024, the total scale of China's Chinese medicine formula will be close to 50 billion yuan, compared to the 2019 sales scale growth rate is close to 100%, and the annual complex growth rate is expected to reach 14%. .
"Public hospitals are affected by factors such as drugs, consumables, additional collection, and revenue, and traditional Chinese medicine formulas are indeed a huge temptation. It is likely to change clinical medication." A public hospital clinical pharmacy expert told eight points Jenior.
Behind the big rising, the Chinese medicine company "color" geometry?
From the logic of investment, this round of traditional Chinese medicine stocks rose to the previous reaches and the future expected product. However, such expectations do not seem to be stable. In the big rose of traditional Chinese medicine stocks, it always contains a sharp fall, slightly wind blowing, this fear in people will flood, and the big fall of the Chinese medicine version last Friday is an example.
Just Friday (January 7), Longjin Pharmaceutical stock prices who have previously recorded 10 daily residues have fallen, and the decline in the day has exceeded 10%.
At the same time, 58 of the 71 Chinese medicine companies have fallen, and the formerly favored red-Japanese pharmaceutical, Shanghai Kaibao, essence pharmaceutical and other formulation related companies are also abandoned, and the decline has reached 13.66%, 10.12% respectively. 10.02%.
As far as the Chinese medicine stocks have fallen, in addition to the package of the major shareholders, the Shandong Alliance collects the product and granules in the previous day. It is also an important factor. This is both a steropy of policies to the growth trend of Chinese medicine, and also shows the fragility of people's confidence in traditional Chinese medicine.
From the film, the palace is bullwall, to the Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Kang Enbei, the existing "myth" is not lacking in the lesson of the altar.
In the clinical use, since a long time, the Chinese has been quite controversial against Chinese medicine, and there have been even calls for abolishment. Many key links to life and death, more research support is needed.
"Traditional Chinese medicine must be modern, otherwise it will be eliminated sooner or later." Shi Sanyin, director of the Chinese Medicine Compound Preparation Modern Zhejiang University Engineering Research Center, told 8.
The reality of practitioners in the field of traditional Chinese medicine is that Chinese medicine still has many places to use modern scientific interpretation; in clinical use, Chinese medicine is also suffering from evidence-based medical evidence because of safe and effectiveness, especially Chinese medicine Injection, the shadow of the re-evaluation and the hot gylgenation in the post-market have been there.
In the 2017 version of the national medical insurance catalog, there is at least 26 Chinese medicine injection varieties, the scope of medical insurance payment is limited to the second and above hospitals, and the restricted varieties range has increased to more than 40.
On July 1, 2019, after the National Health Committee officially announced the state version of the key monitoring catalog, the exclusive large varieties of Sino-Pharma were incorporated, and the variety was then kicked out of the national medical insurance catalog.
A series of changes have caused heavy blow to Kang Enbi. The first year of revenue is shrunk by more than 10%. In early 2021, the large variety of tantia-ginchuanchuanzoxide injections were injected and discontinued. In August of the year, Kang Enbi sketched the subsidiary of the production of the product. Guizhou, Guizhou, who is located in the southwest hinterland, and the annual sales exceeds 1.7 billion yuan during the peak, contributing to Kang Enbi nearly 50 % Net profit.
Finally, Lian Kenbei was also taken over by the Zhejiang State-owned Assets Supervision Committee.
The future of Chinese medicine is still innovative drugs
A part of the "dividend" from the Chinese medicine stock from the chemical drug, the weakness of the biomedical sector.
"Innovative drugs, especially CXO, these previous funds, this is very concentrated, this time has fallen very powerful, so everyone withdraws out." The analyst told 8th sneakers.
For the industry, the film is not going out. Many respondents tell 8th agencies: "Big health is just better, but the threshold is too low, the competition is too stunned", and the development path of "film" is also difficult to copy, "there are several people." Piece? "
Even the traditional Chinese medicine formula granules returned today may not be an outway of the industry.
Although it is not in line with traditional Chinese medicine theory, this new variety is widely welcomed because of the advantages of convenient and component content control. Not only that, the formula is indeed attractive to the public hospital that starts tight days from the exploration stage.
However, under the big trend of the control fee, clinical use of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules is also limited.
According to eight annections, some hospitals in Beijing have strictly restrictions on the total amount of formula granules - "cannot exceed the drink." And 25% of the bonus is actually not new, "there is no substantial change". Innovation is the only way out.
"People have no me, people have me. Chinese medicine innovation must have characteristics, must have a drug, biological drugs are not alternative." Shi Yanlin said to eight-point health, "I can only say, always on the road. But Don't do it, you can't do it. "
In 2021, 11 Chinese medicine innovations were approved, and the creation was high in the past year. It exceeded the sum of the new drug new drugs in 2015. This is also one of the reasons why Chinese medicine stocks have been favored.
However, in the face of the reality of "past six years, 21 Chinese medicine new drugs", an industry insiders can't help but ask: "Is this much?"
The stone forest has experienced the National Food and Drug Administration issued a new Chinese medicine new drug approval method (1999) to the 2020 version of the "Medical Registration Management Measures", and the previous various versions of the new drug registration management. "Now, Chinese medicine new drugs have been batch for 5 years. In fact, it is not high, and it is normal to obtain 1/3 of the total amount of new drugs (Chinese medicine, chemicals, biological drugs) is normal."
According to the industry report released by China Food and Drug Network, 2016 and 2020, China approved 200 innovations in the listing. This means that the approvence of Chinese medicine innovations should reach 50 to 60. "In fact, most Chinese medicine companies are watching." Stone Forest to eight-point governance, "" For the development of Chinese medicine innovation drugs, still in early spring, warm and cold. "
The "Medical Registration Management Measures" implemented in July 1, 2020 played an important role. In the new regulation, the classification of traditional Chinese medicine has undergone major changes, and the new Chinese medicine is divided into innovative drugs, Chinese medicine modified new drugs, ancient classic famous Chinese medicine compound preparations and the same name Tongfang. As the Chinese medicine compound new medicine for the original six new drugs, it is now 1.1 category of Chinese medicine innovation drugs. It can be seen that "the clinical-oriented, the efficacy is the key" Chinese medicine new drug innovation model began to enter the main road, "Shi Yanlin told 8th sneakers.
In fact, the clinical application of traditional Chinese medicine is mainly based on compound soup, that is, a ducoke agent composed of traditional Chinese medicine. In the past Chinese medicine new drug classification, traditional Chinese medicine registration classification 1 is a single-effective ingredient new drug, which is considered to have the most innovative Chinese medicine new drug.
Chinese medicine innovation medicine
Destiny that is also difficult to escape drugs and innovative drugs
Even if these problems are resolved, more and more innovative drugs have been approved, and the traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine will face the same difficulties.
"Importance is difficult", the same is the first three difficulties facing Chinese medicine. The other two major problems are the risk of sales and cost reduction risk.
"The big direction is definitely good, but in real operation is still a lot of card points", there are Chinese medicine marketing leaders to disclose in industry exchanges.
A veteran of an industry also confirmed eighth in an eighth country, "a Chinese medicine new medicine wants to enter the hospital, the first one will ask if it is a base, the second question is not a medical insurance catalog product. Latest drug catalog 685 varieties, medical insurance The catalog will be nearly 3,000 drugs, and the commonly used drug catalog of the hospital is about 1200. "
Many large hospitals do not recognize Chinese medicine. Huaxi Hospital, the Second Hospital of Sichuan University, Xiangya Second Hospital, etc. There have been a hospital pharmacy management committee to clear the medical drug catalog in a large number of pharmacy.
This means that many Chinese medicine innovations can not enter the hospital even if they enter the medical insurance catalog; even if they enter the hospital, it is difficult to improve sales. "For example, a hospital sells 150,000 yuan will be subject to key monitoring, then we do 100,000 yuan." The head of the aforementioned marketing said.
Senior persons in the above industry, "a Chinese medicine innovation drug enters the medical insurance catalog, one year of sales will be tens of millions, the second year will reappear. If we want to develop Western medicine, 10 billion yuan, 25 years Can you return to this! "And recognized a slow hospital, nursing home, and only need 7 to 12 years.
Under this situation, Chinese medicine innovation drugs will become similar to the chemicals and innovative drugs, and there is also no big imagination. And the company, also does not have the power to do more research - "all the studies understand, the cost is coming." If you encounter the price cuts, it is more blood.
Just before the two days (January 11), the Chinese medicine injection lotus injection was announced by the National Food and Drug Administration announced the announcement of the document. And this decision is now made after the listing, also indicates that China-Pharmaceutical verification has become more and more urgent.
"Long-term policies encouragement, conducive to improving the valuation of traditional Chinese medicine, but the problem is impossible to grow so fast." Liu Haijun, general manager of Beijing Juntian TEDA Investment, said, "Many Chinese Pharmaceuticals The valuation is cheap, the overlay policy effect is sought after. From the perspective of the industry, we must revive the traditional Chinese medicine, or to put it in a fairly important position, the process will be relatively long. "
Chen Guangjing, Yu Huan Huan
Lee Shanshan |
This article is started on the WeChat public account "8 points Jenior" (ID: healthinsight)
Respect the original copyright, no authorization is not reproduced, infringement responsibility
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