Interview with Ma KaoSu: Yes!The world economy is moving to East Asia2022-01-15 06:04:01 15 ℃
Senior diplomats, Singapore National University Asia Institute of Asia, Singapore, the Asian Institute of Asian Institute, Excellent Macai. Figure / respondent for map
Ten years ago, I predicted that the world economy moved to East Asia. It turns out that my view is still correct, and the criticism is wrong.
East Asian countries continue to embrace globalization, which is the best way to show leadership in the Globalization of Asian countries.
Sino-US relations will be in a difficult state in a long time. Sino-US competition may last for 10 years.
ASEAN countries can play a valuable role by helping to build a Chinese bridge. ASEAN countries hope to maintain a good relationship with China and the United States.
The good news about the new crown epidemic is that the epidemic has stopped "isolated" between the country, let us live in a world that can be dependent on.
Today, the world is experiencing a big change in a hundred years. It has long been a deep change in the long-term global scale of the world. The emergence of new crown pneumonia epidemic also has a profound impact on human society.
Senior diplomats, the Singapore National University, Singapore, the Asian Institute of Asia, is said to the Beijing News New Beijing Zhica, and the significant growth of the Asian economy has shown that the world economy focuses on the world economy. It has been transferred to East Asia. "The fact that I am accurately predicted ten years ago. East Asian countries are continuing to embrace globalization, which is the best way of providing leadership in the globalization of Asian countries.
Ma Kaikuo, Singapore National University Li Guangyao Public Policy College, founding dean, senior diplomat. From 1971 to 2004, it was served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore; from 1998 to 2004, he was served in the United Nations representative of Singapore; from January 2001 to May 2002, it was selected as the United Nations President of the United Nations.
What is the logo of global power? How will Sino-US relations change? Under the situation of China and the United States, what strategies and position will Singapore and ASEAN will take? To this end, January 13, the Xinjing Zhiku interviewed Macai.
▲ On January 13, Singapore's famous scholar Ma KaoSu has accepted an interview with Xinjing Zhicu. Ma Kaiku said that he predicted that the world economy moved to East Asia ten years ago, and now it has proved that this prediction is right.
Asian countries will lead globalization
Xinjing Zhiku: Your new book "Asia's 21st century" was released in this week, you emphasized the huge impact of Asia in the book. As early as 2010, you put forward the "Global Power East Transfer" in "New Asia Hemisphere: East Power Transmission", it is believed that Asia will replace the West and return to the world center. At that time, Western scholars questioned this point of view and thought that this view lacked enough evidence and ignored the shortcomings of Asia. More than ten years have passed, how do you evaluate this view? Is there a change?
Ma Kaiku: After 10 years, it turns out that I am right, and people who criticize me are wrong. The data shows that in the past 10 years, Asian economic growth is remarkable.
For example, in 2009, China's retail commodity market was about 1.8 trillion US dollars, approximately 4 trillion US dollars, and the United States is twice as China. In 2019, it was a significant year, because Trump's launch of Trade War for two years at this time. Despite this, China's retail commodity market is still growing from $ 1.8 trillion to about 6 trillion US dollars, which has risen more than three times, and the United States only increased to $ 55 trillion. Previously, the United States had the largest retail merchandise market in the world, and now China has the largest market scale. This is the sign of power eastward.
Another indicator is the high-speed growth in Southeast Asia. In 2000, Japan's economy was 8 times the ASEAN countries. In 2020, the total Japanese economy only was only 1.5 times the ASEAN countries. By 2030, the GDP in ASEAN countries (GNP) will exceed Japan.
So you can see how the country in this area continues to grow. I have moved the world economy in the book to East Asia, which proves that my view is still correct.
New Jingxin: What role will you think of the future of Asian countries will play in the process of globalization?
Ma Kaiku: The main leadership role in Asian countries in the process of globalization is to continue to embrace globalization, not far from globalization. This is true, East Asian countries have not lost confidence in globalization. China is moving towards the world market, in the process of promoting globalization. This is the experience of all East Asian countries.
At the same time, East Asian countries continue to sign a free trade agreement is also the best proof of hugging globalization. For example, in January 2022, the world's largest free trade agreement - "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) was launched. Many trading partners are full of enthusiasm for joining RCEP. In contrast, the United States has no capacity to sign any free trade agreement. Therefore, East Asian countries did not lose confidence in globalization, but continued to embrace globalization. This is the best way to show leadership in the globalization of Asian countries.
"I hope that the government officials read my book"
Xinjing Zhiku: You another new book - "China's choice: China-US Game and Strategic Choice" Chinese Simplified Edition has been published by CITIC Publishing Group in September 2021. In the book, you said that the United States made a huge strategic mistake, that is, there is no comprehensive and long-term strategy of China, it is a geopolitical competition with China. Why do you say that? Ma Kaoke: Although the Trump government launched this competition has stepped down, Biden has also overturns many policies of the Trump government, but still maintains the geopolitical competition for China. I think this is a big mistake of the Biden government, because they don't have to ask yourself, what is the specific goal of China's geopolitical competition? Is the United States want to try to isolate China? This will not work. Is the United States try to prevent China's economic growth? This is impossible. No potential goals are feasible. So, what is the purpose of this competition? This situation never wants to be clear.
I think the Biden government should refer to a step, ask yourself, what can be achieved for China's geopolitical competition, and cannot achieve anything. The Biden government should develop a more sensible strategy, such as cooperating with China, and does not hurt the interests of the United States, so you don't have to fully compete with China.
Xinjing Zhiku: Biden government is about one year. How do you evaluate its policies? How will it change in the future of China?
Ma Kaiku: The initial Biden government opened its policies in a very confident manner, as a very powerful, confrontation and atmosphere of China in the American political system. The Biden government said that it will continue to continue the Trump government's policies, but will do smarter, so that more allies join the United States and China.
I think this year is a good study experience for the Biden government, because they have realized that most of the US allies and friends are not enthusiastic about the United States, especially when we are in the new crown. Epidemic period.
▲ US President Biden. Photo / Xinhua News Agency
Therefore, when Bid Government officials come to Southeast Asia, they will find that although they want to have a good relationship with the United States, they also want to maintain a good relationship with China. They will not join any containment, isolated or against China's actions.
We can notice that the recent governments have become less confrontational to China's attitude toward China. I think this is a small progress. Therefore, I hope that the officials of the Biden government can read my book "China's choice: Sino-US game and strategic choice". This book is already published in China. Biden should try to develop a more sensible, thoughtful to China.
New crown epidemic prevented the "isolated" between the country
Xinjing Zhicu: New crown pneumonia epidemic has deepened the world's operation mode and people's lifestyle. Do you think the world (when) can restore normal operation?
Ma Kaisu: I think the good news about the new crown epidemic is that the epidemic has stopped "isolated" between the country, let us live in a world that can be dependent.
In my previous book "Big integration: Oriental, Western, with the world's logic", I wrote: In the past, before globalization, we live in 193 different countries, just like we live in 193 On the different boats, each ship is protected by a captain and a crew to protect the boat.
▲ On January 13, Singapore's famous scholar Ma KaoSu has accepted an interview with Xinjing Zhicu. Ma Kao said that the world will return to the new crown epidemic that may have to be a year or two. Despite this, the new crown epidemic has an important lesson in the world.
Today, due to globalization, the world has become more "small", 193 countries are no longer a 193 independent ship. 193 countries became 193 cabins on board, we all in the same big ship. So we can see that if all 193 countries are on the same boat, we can't just take care of our cabin from private, but to take care of the whole ship.
The new crown epidemic tells us that the world is now in such a situation. The new crown epidemic is spread very quickly around the world. O'K戎 was first discovered in South Africa, soon quickly spread throughout the world. This indicates that we are now on the same boat. We must unite to complete the task of "protecting vessels". I hope that the important lessons from all countries from the new crown epidemic is that human beings must cooperate with each other as a whole. If we understand this, it may be a good thing for humans.
Although the world may have to spend a year or two to return to normal, the new crown epidemic has an important lesson in the world.
China-US competition or will last for 10 years
Xinjing Zhicu: The world is also facing global challenges such as global warming. In this regard, how to cooperate between China and the United States?
Ma Kaikuo: In the "China Choice: Sino-US Game and Strategic Choice", I wrote: Humans claim to be the smartest species on the earth. If the forest around the 猿 is on fire, and different tribes are fighting in the forest, we will say that they are stupid, they don't know how to cooperate. But global warming is happening, global warming is like forest burning, which is important for all countries, we should stop all differences, concentrate on global warming.
Global climate change is one of the reasons for continued cooperation between the two countries. I hope that climate change will continue to create more opportunities for the United States and China, mutual dialogue and cooperation to address climate change together. So far, there are indications that both countries are very responsible in dealing with climate change. I am pleased to see former US Secretary of State John Kerry frequently visited China. He was very clear that unless China and the United States cooperate with each other, otherwise it is impossible to address climate change. New Beijing think tank: What field is expected to appear next Sino-US relations are improving? why?
▲ White House. Photo / Xinhua News Agency
Mahbubani: I want to emphasize that Sino-US relations will be in a difficult state for a long period of time. Sino-US competition may last for 10 years. The United States wanted to keep the first, it will try to stop China as the world. Meanwhile, in the short term, China-US relations may have improved in some areas, such as trade, because Biden Government's main focus in 2022 is to win the midterm elections.
Now, the US Republican Party better than the Democrats in the polls. Biden a challenge facing the Government is inflation. Now the United States is difficult to fight inflation, very difficult. But one thing, reducing tariffs on some Chinese products can become policy tools Biden government fight inflation. The reduction of tariffs can make Chinese products become cheaper, it is more conducive to Biden government fight inflation. Therefore, to reduce tariffs on Chinese products in the interest of the government of Biden. Cheap Chinese products help to reduce inflation, and therefore will also contribute to a Democratic victory in November 2022 elections.
ASEAN can play a role as a bridge between China and the US
New Beijing think tank: the past few years, Sino-US relations hit rock bottom. Recently, the United States and ASEAN to strengthen relations. In the Sino-US competition, what better strategy and position Singapore and ASEAN?
Mahbubani: ASEAN can play a valuable role by helping to build the Sino-US bridge. ASEAN countries hope to maintain a good relationship with China and the United States. So, as I said before, government officials, Biden came to Southeast Asia is a good thing. By visiting Southeast Asia, they will be very many countries do not want to understand the idea of confrontation with China. I think this is where ASEAN countries can play a positive role.
New Beijing think tank: ASEAN is becoming an important force can not be ignored. Could you talk about ASEAN's views on it?
Mahbubani: I think ASEAN is the world's a very important group of countries. ASEAN is the EU's second after a successful regional organizations. I wrote a book called "ASEAN miracle", which is published by the University Press. In this book, I think, at us from a culture dominated by a single modern Western civilization the world toward a pluralistic world civilization in the process of ASEAN countries is a model of cooperation across diversity. We need role models multifaceted cooperation of civilizations.
ASEAN is the world's only multi-civilization "club." ASEAN has about 615 million people, including Muslims, Christians, Buddhists, Hindus and so on. Clearly, ASEAN is the most diverse civilizations regional organizations in the world. Therefore, ASEAN cooperation provides a template for other countries, but also provides a model for the power of Sino-US cooperation across civilizations.
The best way to increase understanding of dialogue
New Beijing think tank: You mentioned cultural diversity, how do you think China can become a role model in terms of diversity?
Mahbubani: China supports the dialogue between civilizations at the United Nations, I think it's great. I think the important thing to do is to continue with the Chinese all over the world in different societies, different cultures maintain dialogue, while continuing to maintain a dialogue with the Americans, because the United States is a very pluralistic society.
Although Biden administration in some of China's critics, but there are other US leaders believe that China is willing to continue the dialogue with China.
▲ On January 13, Singapore's famous scholar Ma KaoSu has accepted an interview with Xinjing Zhicu. Mahbubani expect, the gradual opening of national borders, as people can travel around as before.
New Beijing think tank: 2022 at the beginning of the new year, what are your expectations?
Mahbubani: I think that 2022, like 2021 or 2020, as there will be ups and downs. For example, we have not completed the struggle against new outbreaks of the crown. So, I look forward to 2022, we hope that countries gradually open the border. I also hope that China will gradually open the border to allow foreign tourists to China. I have not been to China more than two years, and I want to go to China, it is desirable to 2022, we can travel the same as in the past. So that we can access our favorite place to go again, such as Beijing and Shanghai.
Wen | New Beijing think tank interviewer Ke Rui Zhang laugh edge
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