补 壹 壹: Lithuania, attacked Kaliningrad?2022-01-26 06:03:46 26 ℃
This article is transferred from [补 壹 刀];
Writer / Li Xiaofei knife, pigeon & wicker
American Zhiku eggs Poland and Lithuania attacked Kaliningrad?
In these days, Russian and long tension continued to rise, NATO continued to increase the troops, and the Tortrars of the Russian Sea Fleet was relatively large-scale military exercise.
In this case, the Meisus sword refers to Gary Ningrad, what is it?
Where will the Russian, will it develop?
The Russian "Viewpoint" said on the 25th that NATO has repeatedly stated that there was a plan to capture Kaliningrad. Recently, the expert of the American Zhugu Rington Institute has an idea. If there is a conflict with Russia, the West should use the US "Patriot" Air Defense System to defend against the attack of Kaliningrad. At the same time, experts urge Poland and Lithuania to take action as soon as possible to eliminate the threat of Kaliningrad.
The article said that Kaliningrad will bring a lot of trouble to NATO. The Russian military forces stationed in the area is well equipped, deploying high-precision "Iskandl" missile systems, carrying cruise missiles, or headquarters of the Russian ship fleet.
The article believes that the US "Patriot" Air Defense System, F-35 "Lightning II" aircraft and "Ahibrams M1" tank can give Kaliningrad "effective roight". Although Puritao can't afford such a expensive weapon, at least there is at least a missile defense system.
Why is Kaliningrad?
Kaliningrad is an administrative region in the westernmost part of Russia, a flyland in Russia in the Baltic Sea, with a land area of more than 10,000 square kilometers. As one of the two non-freeze ports in the Baltic Sea, the strategic location is extremely important.
Kaliningrad is part of Prussian, which is amber. At the beginning of the 18th century, Peter's Emperor helped Prussian to defeat Sweden invasion, the King Prussian king was grateful, and a amber house was given. In World War II, the Amber House has been brushed by the German army. It is preparing to return to Berlin. The Soviet Red Army has sold in the city. The Amber House is unknown and become a mystery of World War II.
After the war, according to the "Potsdam Agreement" signed in Sumei Three Kingdoms, the area is divided into the Soviet Union. In 1946, in order to commemorate the President of the Soviet Soviet, the Soviet Soviet Presiduary, Garying, the region named Kaliningrad, the capital is named Galiningrad.
After the Soviet Union in 1991, Lithuania and Belarus were independent, led to the separation of Gari Ningje and Russia. It is 800 kilometers away from Puskov, Russian, Russia, more than 1,200 kilometers away from Moscow, and Russians have to cross Lithuania and Belarus.
But at the same time, Kaliningrad is only 350 kilometers from Vilnius, Lithuania, only 400 kilometers away from Warsaw, the capital of Poland, and is only 600 kilometers from Berlin, Germany.
Special location, gave a lot of imagination in Russia. After Putin's stage, it is committed to developing the land into a "Baltic House Hong Kong", which will be listed as a Special Economic Zone, encourage foreign investment, and new investors can enjoy a 6-year exemption.
At the same time, the area has become a wedge of Russia into the Eastern Europe, against the outpost of NATO. Russia has deployed a strong military force, including the S-400 air defense missile system capable of combating NATO, and "Iskandl" roadbed missiles that can destroy the key targets of NATO countries and command systems in Eastern Europe. The system, its radius covers the strategic depth of the NATO's potential battle area.
Therefore, for NATO, Kaliningrad is like a throat.
So far, NATO deploys about 4,000 soldiers in Estonia, Lithuania, Lithivia and Poland, and has a tank, air defense and intelligence and reconnaissance forces. In addition, Denmark has recently sent a frigate to the Baltic Sea and will deploy four F-16 in Lithuania. Spain will send ships to NATO in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, and consider sending fighters to Bulgaria. The Netherlands will deploy two F-35 jet fighters from Bulgaria from April. France said it may send troops to Romania. The United States is also considering expanding its military existence in the East Line.
Russian experts believe that NATO cannot rely on the Baltic three countries against Russia in the Kaliningrad region. Even "Patriots" and F-35 are deployed in the Baltic Sea, the Russian missiles and rocadiors can easily destroy them within 15 minutes before the war.
The tanks in the Baltic Sea are also unable to fight against Russia. Three countries have a narrow space that is difficult to accommodate a lot of NATO. Even if you barely deploy, it will also become a Russian target, which is a bottleneck of NATO military geography.
On the 24th, the Western Military Region of Russia announced that 20 warships and auxiliary ships participated in the driver. Tactical formation ships attending training tasks include minesweepers and small anti-submarines, small missile ships, and missile boats, will perform anti-submarine and air defense and anti-water and anti-righteous support task exercises during military exercises.
In addition to Carryingrad, NATO and Russia in other regions.
The US Department of Defense recently said that approximately 8,500 US soldiers were at a high degree of alert. Once Russia fired, they will be deployed to Europe at any time.
US officials said that US military deployment will signal Russia if Russia invades Ukraine, the United States can quickly strengthen the defense forces of NATO Allies.
The Kremlin spokesperson accused the Western countries "hysterical" and released the "doped lie" information. The Russian Navy announced that the major flesh will hold a military exercise in the Russian coastal waters and the world's ocean. Including the Mediterranean and North Sea and Okhake Sea, the Northeast of the Atlantic and the Pacific. Planned to play for more than 140 ships and auxiliary ships, more than 60 aircraft, 1,000 military equipment and approximately 10,000 officers and men.
Russian Presidential News Secretary Peskov is a problem that the military exercise held by Russia in the Baltic Sea is called "First, this issue should ask the Ministry of Defense; Second, NATO's actions can not be ignored, they are responsible. Third, the Russian military exercise and military construction is still going on, and the past has never stopped and will continue in the future. "
In addition, the Chairman of the Belarusian Border Defense Committee, Aedoli Robo, also stated on the 24th that non-excluding the possibility of trying to capture the white Russian border guards in Poland. He has lived, and the white edge defense personnel who have implemented tasks in the border will have no warning to fire.
The White Border Committee has previously been published that Poland Armed Forces entered Belarus twice on the 18th. Belarusian President Lukashenko said that the three countries of Poland and Baltic Sea have set more than 30,000 soldiers in the border. The Poland Renovation deployed nearly 10,000 US military. In addition, Poland also requested NATO to deploy logistics and technical security systems in the region.
Russian News Agency quoted the French senior intelligence official in the 24th that the United States is "self-death", and dragging other Western countries into inevitable deaths, and its RUST is "suicide". The Ukrainian crisis is in Western countries from the beginning. "Atlantic Terrorist" has become an indispensable lifestyle of the United States and NATO, while the West is constantly intensifying tensions. The United States is doing every effort to let Europe under its influence and prevent dissent in Western camps. Therefore, the Western in the United States seems to be close to geopolitical suicide.
Beauty, Poland, Poland, attacking Kaliningrad, is there realistic?
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Eastern European Institute of Eastern China, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the "Make a knife", and this proposal of the American Zhicu is simply playing.
Kaliningrad is currently an important military base in Russia in the European hinterland. It is an important port (Second Leningrad only) in the Baltic Sea area, or Russia's important economic center or window in Europe in Europe, especially Nordic.
Zhang Hong believes that from the history of the end of the Cold War, the Russian counterattack is very resolute when encountering the initiative to provoke the core interests of Russia. Russia is a nuclear country, once active provocation in Kaliningrad, may induce a series of chain reactions, and even eliminate the possibility of eruption nuclear war.
Kaliningrad is the territory of Russia unless a comprehensive war in Russia and NATO, European countries have no ability to provoke the active military attack on Kaliningrad. Therefore, the proposal of the American Zhicu is naive and low. Any rational big country will not make this kind of low-level political choice.
As for the Wushu border that wars, the Russian, the Russian, and Jin Guorong, a professor of the International Relations University of Renmin University, told the "补 壹 壹", overall to see the overall situation has not changed, and the possibility of conflicts is not large.
Jin Canar believes that from the national strategy, Russia did not invade Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Ruff Rov has repeatedly emphasized that "Russia will not attack Ukraine." Now, it is the United States and some Western countries. They know that there is no risky, rendering without Russian attack.
In terms of will, the United States does not want to be involved in a conflict with Russia, but there are some people in the United States to achieve some of their own purposes through manufacturing tension.
Some of them are elites that really control the country behind the scenes, that is, the "Deep State". There are many domestic problems in the United States, and the people have a lot dissatisfied with the government and social people, and these people hope to transfer internal political contradictions through manufacturing external nervous.
Moreover, even if the war is playing, it is also limited to the European and Russia, and the US interest group can take a "war".
Just like the War of Afghanistan, the biggest loser is the Afghan people, the battlefield died of more than 100,000 people, indirect deaths, and the population of 1/3 became a refugee in the hometown. The US people also pay the price, Afghan war USA costs 2 trillion US dollars, died of more than 4,000 US military, 20,000 people were injured. However, the US Military Interest Group earned a lot of money.
Another excitation is a "cold warrior" that still exists in the US society. Their age is usually at 60 to 70 years old. The beginning of the entire career begins in the last ten years of the Cold War, winning the cold war, has become the highlight of their life and occupation, and the fight with Russia (the Soviet Union before disintegration) is their life. Significance. This group of people is still in the job position and can play a certain amount of energy.
The countries that European want to make tight countries are mainly "new Europe" countries such as Baltic 3rd countries, Poland, etc. These countries have a deep suspicion, fear and hostility for Russia due to historical and reality. They hope that the situation will remain tight. By investing in the United States, borrowing heavy US power to suppress Russia. Ukraine needs to reduce internal stress through the situation of the situation, from other Western countries to strive for resource support.
It is in the continuous promotion of these forces, recently Ukraine's situation continues to be tight. But from the existing action level of the United States, the so-called 8,500 soldiers are at a highly alert state, mainly want to show a gesture.
Jin Canar said that if the United States really wants to fight, this scale is not enough. Moreover, the 60% of the sea air force in the United States have deployed around China, and it is not easy to deploy a lot of force in the short-term Eastern Europe.
In a long time, the United States is hoping that European countries can unite Russia, it is well laid from Europe, the Middle East and other places, and put more power to "India" to deal with China.
At this point, French and other countries have similar ideas. The German naval commander just resigned is a representative of "Old Europe" ideas. They don't want to have conflicts with Russia, but hoped to take out from the Ukrainian crisis, enhance their own influence in the world.
However, the relationship between the United States and French is also very subtle. Although Biden wants to show the unity and "full consistency of the position", both parties have indeed utilization in the strategy, but in fact they do not fully trust each other.
"Old Europe" countries are worried about whether the speech is used by the speech, because the internal information is more chaotic, and then the Biden government is likely to become a slope, and many things cannot be completely maintained. And the United States is worried that European countries do not unite, in the United States, the German law is not a heart, it is more difficult to expect Europe to have consistent actions.
Therefore, if the situation continues to be tight, it cannot rule out the possibility of flip guns. However, Jin Canar said that even if there is a small-scale conflict, things are difficult to expand to the uncontrollable situation.
Jin Canar believes that when there is no conflict, there may be some people to noise. Some countries follow the beginning, "Old Europe" countries say some wind and rush, but once there is a conflict, the United States will not send troops "old Europe" countries will not arise. Very large may be to be dry to the United States with unreal expectations.
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