In the face of Putin, the EU "old problem" is committed

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In the face of Putin, the EU "old problem" is committed

2022-01-28 12:08:09 47 ℃

The French "World News" website issued the article title "Ukrainian crisis to make the European Union's reproduction", the author is political scholar, Germany Marshall Foundation Paris branch person in charge of Alessandra Dehhope Hyper. The full text is extracted as follows:

US President Biden is now facing the same advancement with Obama in 2014: European security and Russian issues once again let the United States have to play the role of "European Genders".

It is difficult to get rid of double dependence

The Biden of the Obama Times, agreed to start unprecedented consultations with Putin. By pulling the EU countries - because they can't let them bear the role of the meditation, Biden first hopes to let them "re-assume responsibility" to threaten the crisis of their safety. " In 2014, Obama had handed this role to Germany. The United States requested that the EU countries share their expenses in common defense, that is, they hope that they will take more responsibility in their deterrent construction.

This is also the proposal of French President Markon on January 19 this year: "Europe ultimately build collective safety order on our continent." This issue is also more critical because of another reason because of the United States The deterrence is increasingly difficult to convince. Obama turns an attitude on the Syrian issue - that is, in the summer of 2013, the summer refusal to combat Syria - it is difficult to reverse the geopolitical turning point. The opponents are no longer as feared in the United States, and allies have doubts about the US commitment.

The Ukrainian crisis makes the vulnerability of the EU again: it is the double dependence on the US leadership and Russian natural gas. The EU countries further despise Moscow and continue to look forward to the consultations in the United States, but at the same time, it has to face Russia's "要挟" in energy. If Europe wants to control your borders and political future, it is critical to developing a strategy to get rid of this double-dependent. To great extent, it is necessary to rely on Germany, but the coalition government is ambiguous, so that the European Union facing Russia has received further damage.

The Ukrainian crisis is an asymmetrical conflict, facing Putin tough red lines, the US and EU positions appear pale. Biden's action in qualitative Russia is the so-called "slight invasion" or "attack", but the EU has hesitized attitude towards Russian sanctions, and the result is a strategy.

The ambiguity of the strategy is actually the same since 2008. The NATO Bulárst Summit has promised to make Georgia and Ukraine "join NATO", but since there has never been formally negotiated. These two countries that were regarded by Moscow as a strategic enemy, and the status issue has not been resuspended, and there is no security guarantee for the NATO. NATO Member States have created their own two difficulties in one hand: they don't want Ukraine to join NATO, but they don't want to take the gate at Russia. In this case, Eastern European countries are worried that future US Russia will reach transactions, which may not allow Ukraine to join NATO in the short term.

Internal and European and American do not unite

The deterrent gesture in the United States in a few days seems tough, and the United States prefer to take action under the framework of NATO. Multiple NATO countries, including Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, have sent battleships and aircraft to Eastern Europe. France is also preparing to send troops to Romania within the NATO framework.

The diplomatic efforts of the Biden government have to be supported by the European Union, in order to be able to implement "destroyability" sanctions in Russia "invasive", but the price of sanctions may mainly fall on the head of the European Union. However, Russia is increasing to increase the pressure loss, the greater the differences between the EU countries and the European and American. In short: there is indeed negotiation, but there is no unity between Europe and the United States and the inside of the EU. Poland, Sweden and Baltic States hopes that the American attitude is more tough - it also realizes the desire, thinking that Putin's dialogue is a strategic mistake; while France and Germany advocate direct conversations with Russia, hoping to re-activate French Russian "Normandy Quartet Talks".

The German joint government has a difference in Russian issues and swing on the second line of the North Creek natural gas pipeline. The project is one of several means of the EU to Russia. Moreover, the German joint government refuses to provide weapons to Ukraine. The direction of German stands will greatly determine the size of the EU's pressure on Russia, and also determine whether US Ou maintains the current consultation. If the EU really wants to play "geopolitical" role, it should change the practice, reducing the Russian strategy and politically "dependence". To this end, the EU must distinguish economic interests with geopolitical differences.