The scandal is connected, and Park Geun-hye wants to speak ... Which variables will agitate this Korean election?

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The scandal is connected, and Park Geun-hye wants to speak ... Which variables will agitate this Korean election?

2022-01-28 12:07:19 30 ℃

The Korean presidential election from March is less than 50 days, and the variable is still endless.

Originally, the Korean Ruling Party co-democratic presidential candidate Li Zhentiming and the largest in the field "National Power" Presidential Candidate Yin Xi Yue Ding is 120 minutes on the 27th to 120 minutes of TV debate, and the three main media plans of South Korea are planned at 30 Day or 31, but on the 26th, considering the impact of TV live on the results of the election, the people ranked third, but they were not invited to participate in this debate in the field "National Party" Party Shou An Zhexiu to Seoul. The local court proposes to apply, prohibiting broadcasting of the video of the TV debate.

The Seoul Local Court considers the possibility of the President's candidate, and the vocals' attention to the presidential candidates, the time of the TV debate and the influence of the TV debate, and the political situation of South Korea agreed to the application. This decision obviously chaos all parties.

According to HUONO, the national power is currently proposed to arrange two party presidents to hold debates in Congress or other places on the 31st.

"This is the most difficult to predict the most embarrassment." Li Wei, an assistant researcher, an Asia-Pacific Institute of China, China, told the first financial reporter.

The political priority released on January 24, and Yin Xiyue support rate was 42%, which was 36.8% higher than Li. At present, Yin Xi Yue and Li have expanded to nearly 6 percentage points in the Ming Dynasty, and has exceeded the range of errors. Previously, the two support rates were inseparable.

Huang Fei, a professor of the University of Seoul Science, Yin Xue's support rate does not fall, except for the impact of his wife's resume fake, it is largely reflected that the people are hopped in the new leadership. Korean society currently in the current downturn.

How much impact will have a scandal?

Although the first public debate was accidentally banned, it did not affect the public's attention to this general election.

Huang Ye told the first financial development. It is expected that Li is in the first public debate based on political, administrative experience based on political advantages. "Li Ying has 16 years of political experience, and participating in the public office is also the 6th, so the experience of debate is very rich." She said, "So, Li Ming is expected to concentrate on display his own administrative experience and policy results, actively publish the policy policy, performance Solve the determination and ability of current people's livelihood problems, highlighting the differences between the opponent Yin Xiyue. "

Throughout Yin Xi Yue, Huang Fei believes that although its political experience is not rich, in the course of the candidate in the party, Yin Xiyue has also experienced up to 16 TV debates. "It is expected that Yin Xixue will borrow people. The fatigue and price and price rising problems brought about by epidemic prevention measures have attacked the ruling party to meet the final goal of the regime. "

It is worth noting that the Korean presidential election to draw, in addition to glue support, the candidates of both parties frequently broke out by the Korean media, not only has become the largest number of people in the Korean people, but also leads to their respective policies, scandals of candidates. More stealing the embarrassing situation. Li Wei believes that for Li's Ming and Yin Xi Yue, if you want to increase popularity through public debates, you need to put the focus on policy, rather than use the scandal or black material to be personal attacks, "scandal has changed, its influence It will drop. Unless there is a more heavy black material on two candidates, it is limited. "

Huang Fei also believes that Lee will clarify the doubts of unfairness of the Southern Daph Chang Kong, which is open to the Ming Dynasty, and the one party, and strive to reduce the impact of negative news to his own influence; Yin Xixue is not lost in the debate, It is no longer to further cause the people to disappoint him because of your "lost words".

For two candidates, the current election programs, Li Wei uses "send candies" to describe, mainly for the consideration of voters. However, he also pointed out that nearly one or two Korea elections have a significant trend, that is, the proportion of candidates' campaign commitments are constantly rising, "therefore should pay special attention to the candidates in the field of diplomacy, especially for China."

As for the economic policies of both parties, Li Wei said that from the development trend of the South Korea, it has been difficult to use the economy to distinguish the progress of the progress of Li and Yin Xi Yue. "The two policies are not obvious. difference".

Huang Ye believes that whenever it is held, this public debate is expected to become the topic of the Korean people to visit the world.

Who is the strongest mixer?

Recalling the selection of South Korea, the candidate ranking is basically the "overall situation" in the countdown 50 days. In 2017, the presidential candidate in the time was in the middle of the people's leading Hong Zhen and Anzhen Xiu, and finally elected; 2012, the presidential candidate Park Geun-hye ranked first in most civil programs; 2007, Presidential candidate Li Mingbo is also in the first place in the poll.

But this time, because candidates have their weaknesses, intermediate layers and young voters do not specifically support objects, plus many factors such as the possibility of pushing a single candidate in the wild camp, and the selection is confusing.

The open debate of the presidential campaign does not include the current civil or fourth presidential candidate, Li Wei told the first financial reporter, Li Xiaoming and Yin Xiyue hopes to create a Korean election through the public debate Strong Strong Structure, but reality is still need to pay attention to the moment of Anzhen Xi Xiu, the third place in the current prison. Zhexiu created an anti-virus software enterprise "Anzhen Xiu Institute" started. In 2012, he first participated in the presidential election as an independent candidate, and later returned. In 2017, he once again challenge the President's throne, the support rate and the article are in the enemy, but eventually defeated. He announced that he was defeated by the Mayor of Seoul in June 2018, announced to exit the polit. This time, Anzhenxiu has established the party of the New Party and once again hit the president.

Previously, Korean public opinion also had forecasts for the final movement of Anzhenxiu, and even with "strongest mixers" to describe his position in this election. However, as of now, Anzhenxiu has always denied the guess of all kinds of alliances, indicating that it will run completely. According to Korean media, Anzhen Xiu is mainly welcomed by young voters from 20 to 30. He is "sucking" is the vote of Yin Xiyue. However, Yin Xixue camp has said that there is no intention to join hands with An An Zhexi.

In addition to Anzhenxiu, in the last day of 2021, the former President Park Geun-hye got the current President's "Amnesty of the Korean media, and was also seen as a" timed bomb "of the Korea election. Li Wei recalls that the election of 5 years ago, the election of Park Geun-hye, "Assignment, Guan Zheng" scandal broke out, the text in the progress of the won, "But 5 years have passed, 'Privacy governance' scandals have been completed The conservative camp has also been relieved from Park Geun-hye's scandal, so progress camp and conservative camp are returned to the origin before the election. "

Currently, Park Geun-hye is free, but it still needs to be treated in the hospital due to physical reasons. Previously, Park Geun-hye's lawyers revealed that Park Geun-hye will publish a public speech to Korean people after discharge. Obviously, as an important person of the Korean political conservative, Park Geun-hye choose when to speak and tell what will be added to the South Korea election of the sprint phase.

In this regard, Li Wei said that once Park Geun-hye choose to break the silence, I may be reversed for conservative camps. After all, Yin Xiyue, who was asked at the general prosecutor, and sent Park Geun-hye to prison, so it may arouse some inside the conservatives. The "old hat" of the person, thereby differentiates inside the conservative camp, which is not conducive to the selected unity.

"So, Park Geun-hye will reduce a variable for this most difficult-predicted election for this time before the election." Li Wei said.