The Ukrainian crisis is a serious mistake in the United States.

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The Ukrainian crisis is a serious mistake in the United States.

2022-01-28 12:07:29 44 ℃

Author: Huang Haitao (Tianjin Characteristics Socialism Theoretical System Research Center Nankai University Base Researcher, Director of the American Research Center of Nankai University)

A few days ago, US Secretary of State Brinken and Russian Foreign Minister Ruff Rov, Russia did not achieve any progress, and the Ukrainian tensions were upgraded again, and the Russian and Wuwu continued to increase the border, and the conflict had a big touch. The US Department of Defense, Austin, in accordance with the instructions of President Biden, ordered 8,500 US military to enter the highly alert state, ready to invest in the Eastern European region. The US State Council has also authorized foreign exchanges in Ukraine to voluntarily evacuate Kiev. The United States and its NATO Allies continue to pull high to Russia, warned Russia, "once invaded Ukraine will pay high costs."

In most reports in Western media, the current Ukrainian crisis is completely triggered by Russia's "invasion ambition" and "imperial dreams". This kind of propaganda of "evil enemy" will be completely blamed, never play in the Western public opinion site - "Savior" narrative framework for the "victims of victims of demon," in the Western media It is not uncommon in the report. However, in the face of international political real challenges, the psycho motivation "Dream" "ambition" is regarded as the fundamental cause of major crisis events, which is undoubtedly a very naive approach, which is easy to fuzzy, and is not conducive to the crisis. Management and solution.

In the past 30 years, NATO East Expansion is the current situation.

The essence of the Ukrainian crisis is the concentrated outbreak of Russia and Western geopolitical contradiction after the cold war. From the surface, Ukraine has continued to turmoil in 2004. The contradiction between the domestic regions and ethnic conflicts is intensified. The foreign policy is swaying, and the Crimean issue of 2014 and the issue of the Usan region have gradually Dead to today's crisis situation. In the evolution of Russian relations, "Russian adapt" is more obvious, which is perfectly fitted with the role positioning of the two sides of the "Savior" narrative. However, if you analyze after a longer period and deeper angle, you can find that NATO East Expansion on the Russian Strategic Safety Environment after the Cold War is the current Russian defulment of the Russian, and igniting this guideline. It is a hegemonic protection strategy for the United States to establish and consolidate liberal international order after the Cold War.

On the occasion of the Cold War, the Western Camp headed by the United States showed an excel and conservative and conservative in dealing with the Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, which formed a sharp contrast of Western attitudes and strategies after the cold war. As early as 1989, the US President's old Bush with the Soviet President Gorbachev met with Meat, as clearly said that the United States will never use the Eastern Europe revolution to harm the Soviet interests. On the unity of Germany, the old Bush, the British Prime Minister Thatcher, the Federal German Prime Minister Cole and US Secretary of State James Baker and others have repeatedly guaranteed to Gorbachev in different occasions. If the Soviet Union accepts German unity, "NATO does not It will expand an east "." Despite the transition of history, the leaders of the two camps did not expect the progress of the unity of the two Germans, and no one foreseeds followed the collapse of the Soviet Union of the Soviet Union. Therefore, both parties regard the strategic stability as the core problem that is critical, and I don't dare to easily Yue Tongchi half.

However, with the Soviet Union, the United States ushered in the "single moment" of the cold war. The Western elite began to diffuse a unhappy emotion, that is, on the one hand, I am rejoicing in a strong competitor, and on the other hand, the international order of the international order after the instructions should be arranged in accordance with what principles. Old Bush puts forward the "World New Order" strategy, but it has been proven to be proven to win domestic political support; and the level of hegemonic order, which is a hegemonic order of the ideology, becomes a strategic choice, still political correctness. The fundamental goal of "Free Hegemony" strategy is undoubtedly the "leadership status" in the United States. The main path adopted is the main military instrument in strategic security, and has implemented "democratic promotion" policies in global political affairs. The "free democracy" values ​​are included in the foreign strategic target system together with the safety and economy. In Europe, in the face of a strong Russian, the Western cautious and conservative attitude has undergone major changes, and the commitment of "NATO Non-East Expansion" is thrown by the leaders of Western countries, will be in Europe Under the NATO Safety Architecture, the original Su East country thoroughly absorbed "Europe" to consolidate "democratic achievement", and become the main goal of "Free Hegemony" in the European Order Construction.

Since 1993, Russia continued to protest and opposition to NATO Eastward, which formed a core factor in the relationship between the United States in Western countries in Russia in the past 30 years. However, depending on the absolute advantage, the West-headed Western Western Safety is full of proud and disdain. From Poland, Czech, Hungary, to the Baltic 3rd countries, NATO's defense circle is step by step to the Russian direction. In this context, major changes in domestic politics in Ukraine have led to a critical point of security anxiety in Russia, and its offensive strategy is the product of years of accumulated dissatisfaction with strategic stop loss thinking.

Policy inertia makes the US government caught two difficulties

In fact, the root cause of the US strategic community on Russian behavior is not awareness. After the Crimea crisis, the US International Relations scholars John Millsheimo clearly stated that "the Ukrainian crisis is the mistake of the Western committed", "trying to make Ukraine to get rid of Russia, the strategy integrate into the Western camp." Stephen Walter, Professor Harvard University, believes that if it is not because the US decision-making layer has long been "arrogant, a happy wish and liberal values", the Ukrainian crisis can also be avoided, and the United States does not have to face the current difficult situation. However, more American strategic analysts are very reluctant to admit strategic mistakes in the United States and its NATO allies. It is believed that Ukraine's domestic anti-corruption and dictatorship should receive strong support in Western world, "Ukraine chooses the West. Instead of Western Choose Ukraine. Under such a discourse framework, the Western countries have made breakthroughs in the Western countries' diplomatic contacts through the commitment NATO no longer eastward expansion, because any such commitment will be used to the "Savior" narrative For the sale of Ukraine, the "free democratic model", the political cost is not. It is especially important to control the European security process after the end of the Cold War, the Biden government is more reluctant to see Russia to change the safety pattern of Europe through unilateral force threats, and worry that the Ukrainian crisis will be worried. The future development of NATO and the dominant position of the United States in Europe in Europe have a serious threat.

However, on the treatment of Ukraine issues, the Biden government does not have the arm to make a variety of resources, multifaceted integration, and a multifaceted constraints and 桎梏 make it feel tired. As far as Biden's decision circle, it is undoubtedly a top priority to deal with resources, and it is considered to be awarded that the Ukrainian affairs is considered to weaken China's concerns - this is also the Biden government in the Russian Keep a longer period of time so-called "no provocative" policy, trying to resolve the main motivation of the crisis through a diplomatic manner. However, as described above, in the face of Russia's "offensive situation", the security of the hegemonic order and the defenders of the Western values ​​cannot be done outside the United States, but they can only continue to play the "savior" function.

The two difficulties in strategy are not the only challenge to the Biden government to deal with. In the United States, the Republican Congress's councils all blame the Biden government to treat Russia's too "weakness and clumsy", and on the other hand, it is opposed to the Eastern Europe, and the diplomatic crisis may become a political disaster. In Europe, NATO Allies in the United States show the sign of Russian positions in the crisis evolution. Different sounds have different voices in the country of Russia's safety requirements and the specific measures of Russia, etc. The internal unity of the Western camp is facing test. How to win and consolidate political support at home and abroad, is another big problem to deal with the government, and the difficulty of dealing with the above problems is not submitted to the Ukrainian crisis itself.

In the final analysis, the Ukrainian crisis has embodied their own defects in the US free hegemony order. On the one hand, after the cold war, I will reach the United States to lose constraints when dealing with external relations, and will use the values ​​as the standard to promote the foreign strategy. The security concerns from other countries will finally take the fierce means to respond. On the other hand, the free hegemony order is highly dependent on the super strong basis. Once the power foundation is shaken, the value of the value will reverse the category of policy options, and the conditions of the inner and external challenges are intensified with "self-binding hands", it is difficult to Adjustment according to the actual benefit needs. The Biden government of "reshaping the United States leadership" is the goal of "US priority" conservative blocking. It is facing the maintenance of the unity of the alliance, and the heavy pressure of the competitor should be degraded in the crisis. Media.

The determination is not enough, the means is scarce, which is the reason why the United States can only be passive during the current. Under the phase, Russia causing, the limit is pressed, and the initiative to master the initiative in his hand. The Biden Government of the last year is experiencing a largest diplomatic crisis after the end of the United States. Time shift, even if diplomatic experience is rich in worship, I am afraid it will sigh, why is it so tough? Is it true that the free hegemony order is the wood?

"Guangming Daily" (January 28, 2022)