It is difficult for the European Union to refuse Russia's oil in the short term and will still buy a lot in the short term

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It is difficult for the European Union to refuse Russia's oil in the short term and will still buy a lot in the short term

2022-05-16 12:07:07 26 ℃

Recently, the European Union promoted the embargo on Russia's oil, trying to further "punish" and sanction Russia. However, in the context of high Russian energy dependence, it is difficult to form unified opinions within the European Union. It is difficult for some European countries to completely reject Russian oil and will still buy a lot in the short term.

Comprehensive media reports that in early May, the European Commission proposed the sixth round of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions plan includes the connection between the Russian savings bank and SWIFT of Russia's largest state -owned commercial banks, and the three Russian state -owned television channels are prohibited from being played in the European Union.

However, the most watched sanction plan is the oil embargo against Russia. Feng Delin, the chairman of the European Commission, said that the European Union plans to ban the import of Russian crude oil after six months. European Council Chairman Michelle said that this round of sanctions aims to break the Russian military action mechanism and will introduce sanctions related to Russian oil. At the same time, Michelle promised to provide financial support for all projects that can realize the source of EU energy supply and reduce projects that rely on Moscow's energy dependence.

Due to the high dependence on Russia's natural gas and oil, it is difficult for EU countries to reach unified opinions on Russian energy sanctions. According to the procedure, the proposal must be unanimously agreed by all EU member states to take effect. The proposal was not approved due to some countries' opposition. Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria have requested the EU for exemption to continue to purchase Russian oil.

The reason why EU countries are difficult to reject Russian oil in a short time include two aspects:

First, in terms of quantity, Russian oil has a large market share in European countries. Data show that Russia's oil in 2020 accounted for 24.9%of the total imports of 27 EU countries. Hungarian Prime Minister Olban said that the sanctions have crossed the "red line" of Hungary and "destroyed" the unity of the European Union. Gegeli Guyash, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister's Office, previously stated that Budapest will veto the proposal to restrict the import of Russia's energy in any EU because Hungary does not intend to "sanction to hurt himself."

Second, from a technical point of view, replacing Russian oil is not a matter of day and night. In theory, EU countries can use oil in the Middle East and the United States to replace Russian oil. However, the problem is that a large number of European refineries are technically suitable for refining Russian oil, and the technical update takes time because of different regions and different regions and different regions. Grade oil is different on many indicators such as impurities, density, and sulfur content.

In fact, before the European Union discussed with oil embargo against Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia had announced the suspension of imported Russian oil. However, some Western companies are using rules to bypass sanctions to restrict the purchase of Russian energy.

According to foreign media reports, Western countries continue to purchase Russian energy through unconventional ways. For example, the rules of "not clear enough" by using ship transportation destinations, transferring Russian oil to larger ships, and then mixing with other countries to hide it to hide it in order Petroleum source. Moreover, for Western countries, as long as the proportion of Russian oil in mixed oil does not exceed 50%, it is not sanctioned Russian oil. In this regard, native oil companies such as the United States and Britain did not give a clear negation comment.

In addition, even though they continue to wield energy sanctions, the European Union is still importing Russian oil in large quantities. The consulting company Energy Aspects issued a report saying that the EU purchases about 2 million barrels of oil from Russia every day, which is almost three times the usual usual. The report also stated that before the oil embargo, European countries will still buy a large number of Russian oil.

Faced with energy sanctions, Russia's position is still. On the one hand, Russia believes that sanctions against Russian energy will hurt Europe itself. Slutzki, chairman of the Russian Russian Duma International Affairs Committee, said that follow the United States to make European energy consumers a expensive price. If it continues, the European energy crisis will only intensify. On the other hand, Russia does not refuse to cooperate with European energy and continue to maintain the role of "reliable energy supplier". Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov emphasized that Russia has always been a reliable energy supply country. The new clause that pays the natural gas with rubles is not a extortion, but a decision made based on a large number of foreign exchange reserves in Russia.

Western countries are constantly waving sanctional sticks or serious spillover risks in the energy field. The Director of the International Energy Agency believes that sanctions and retaliation measures on Russia will have serious consequences on the energy market. Many experts also said that Russia is an important oil and natural gas exporter in the world. In the context of the world's energy crisis, Russia's measures to respond to sanctions in Western countries may have further impact on the international energy market. (Li Chunhui)