Iran decided to issue electronic food stamps under the Russian and Ukraine smoke to send the country's economy to the operating table

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Iran decided to issue electronic food stamps under the Russian and Ukraine smoke to send the country's economy to the operating table

2022-05-19 18:02:36 17 ℃

On May 14, Jun Ma Jina received SMS SMS, 14.6 million miles (about 350 yuan) subsidy.

Yaaraane (Yaaraane) is one of the important means for the Iranian government to maintain its own rule. It is nominal aimed at ensuring the most basic life of the people at the bottom and preventing people from taking risks to harm regime and social security due to extreme poverty. The subsidy adopts a targeted distribution mechanism. There are families with houses and cars and work, individuals with more than 1,100 yuan in monthly income, and dual -employee families with a monthly income of more than 1,500 yuan cannot enjoy government subsidies. And The subsidized people are also divided into eight levels according to the number of family members, income, whether to rent a house, adult/child, etc., and the monthly subsidies (equivalent to RMB) from 100 yuan to 400 yuan. Wait, it is generally distributed in the Gregorian month.

However, in addition to notifying the subsidy to the account of the subsidy, this time the bank sent a lot of text messages to Mazana, and finally added a sentence: After the project was activated, it was used to buy "basic foods" such as rice noodles. In other words, under the new policy, subsidies have become electronic food stamps.

Correspondingly, the Iranian central bank has set up a set of mechanisms in the bank card. When consumers buying daily necessities in cake shops, grain and oil shops, etc., POS opportunities to submit cardholder information to the bank. The amount is deducted according to the subsidy ratio, while other non -living necessity consumption cannot be used. For example, when buying 45,000 Lier/Zhang, 15,000 yuan deducts from the savings deposit of the subsidiary, 30,000 will be deducted from the subsidy. If you go to the mall to buy cosmetics, the subsidy will not be deducted, and the savings will be deducted directly. Essence

However, the purpose of the introduction of the new policy should not only regulate the freedom of consumption of the people, but also to respond to the new situation of the decline in prices in purchase power. The price of eggs and meat has been nearly tripled in the past month, of which the unit price of the eggs has increased from 14,000 miles (about RMB 0.35)/increased to 37,000 miles (about RMB 0.92). There are also 20%-50%rise to varying degrees. The latest news released by the Iranian government is that the main rations of the Iranian people will soon increase their prices.

When the price of basic materials rises sharply, forced the middle and lower classes to "rational" consumption, buy the necessary supplies for life, and spend the subsidy on the blade. After all, people cannot afford clothes. of.

The price behind the Russian and Ukraine smoke breaks through the barrier

In the Middle East and Central Asia, the prices of 中 are often the vane of the stable national political situation. After the conflict of the Ukraine outbreak of the global wheat, many analysts were worried that the food safety in the Middle East would be threatened. This time Iran's plan has greatly raised the price of . Conflict lying on the army.

Iranian wheat consumption is about 12 million tons, and about 4 million tons of gaps need to be filled by imports. In the past year, due to factors such as climate change and poor reservoir management, there have been arid apologies in Iran. Foreign trade organs have applied for an estimated import quota for traders in the past few months. From Ukraine.

After the Russian and Ukraine War, the international wheat price rose from US $ 7.9/Pu -Ear on February 23 to $ 12.8/Pu -type ear on March 10, which directly pushed the price of flour. In this case, the price increase seems to be It should be. However, if the scope and cycle of observation is expanded, it is difficult for Iranian food and food to increase the price increase to Russia. Since September last year, Iranian flour has begun to increase prices. By March of this year, the price of pasta has risen 2.5 times, from 70,000 miles/kg (about RMB 1.7) to rose to 170,000 miles/kg (about RMB 4). In other words, this round of pasta price increases have begun since Laicy, last September.

After Laixi came to power, meat, eggs, solid edible oils, liquid edible oils, milk, noodle prices have risen / college student news agency

When Laixi came to power, Iran was facing various economic dilemma under international crude oil sanctions. On the one hand, in the case of a sharp depreciation of the local currency, a large number of local currency issued a large number of local currencies and imported by one -sixth of the official foreign exchange exchange rate by the free market price through the exchange rate system.面粉、饲料等必需品,从账面上人为压低国内市场价,保障民众国内购买力;另一方面为应对货币超发引发的通货膨胀,央行不得不大幅提高存款利率加以控制,导致贷款投资成本高企,工业Stagnating and employment are sluggish, and there is no enough capital construction infrastructure, which has led to further depreciation in the free market in the free market and entering the vicious circle.

In order to solve this dilemma, Lessem and the previous President Rouhani used two opposite ideas. Rouhani believes that the crux of the Iranian economy lies in Western sanctions. Therefore, it is necessary to reach a new nuclear agreement with the United States to terminate sanctions, sell crude oil for foreign hard currency, and allow foreign capital to come in to promote the development of the country. Lessen believes that reconciliation with the United States is unnecessary, because Iran's economic problems originated from unreasonable structure rather than external sanctions. After solving their own problems, Iran will face the United States in a tougher attitude in nuclear negotiations.

One of the economic structures in Lesse's eyes is the "virtual high" benefits enjoyed by the exchange rate system and the "virtual high" benefits enjoyed by the Iranian people. For example, the dual -track system has led to corruption, and many traders collude with the central bank personnel, forged trade contracts or goods prices, and purchased foreign exchange from the central bank to the free market at a low price to sell at high prices for profits. For another example, it was difficult to bypass the sanctions to sell a small amount of crude oil and minerals. The hard currency was used to be used for subsidies. Although benefiting the people, it also fatted the pockets of multinational smuggling merchants. According to the statistics of the Iranian Ministry of Agriculture, under the government subsidy, the price of Iranian flour is 1/20 of neighbors Afghanistan and Pakistan. As a result, many people living on the Eastern border buy a lot of cakes on Iran, and then sell them cross -border to earn huge profits. Therefore, soon after the Laici government came to power, it was announced that it must cancel the exchange rate multi -track system within his tenure, so that the official foreign exchange low prices were closer to the high price of the free market. Of course, he did not adopt a one -size -fits -knife -cutting of radical policy to directly cancel the official foreign exchange price, but gradually removed the items in the official foreign exchange exchange rate purchase basket. If everything goes well, foreign exchange saved from the reduction of "excessive" subsidies will be used to invest and develop domestic workers and agriculture, promote employment, and gradually reduce dependence on the petroleum industry and imports, thereby further reducing foreign exchange expenditure, allowing the country's economy to enter a virtuous cycle Essence

The poster of the pro -Laixi attacking the legacy of the former President Rouhani is "buried thunder for the economy" / network

Of course, a beautiful and ideal is a skinny reality. From the removal of subsidies to the national economy, Iran is undergoing dangerous prices to break through the barrier.

At the end of last year, the government gradually reduced the exchange rate subsidy of grain feed imports, and the cost of chicken farming surged. Many chicken farmers burned chicken seedlings in order to avoid losing money. Finally, in April this year Transmit to consumers.

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, in the face of the prospects of food, especially the flour crisis, the Iranian government further removed rice noodles and oil from the official foreign exchange purchase item list, which basically ended the significance of the US dollar against the local currency. Try to initiate the final sprint to the price through the smoke of the Russian and Ukraine War. The purpose behind it is also obvious: in the real sense, if the low price exchange rate is not canceled, the high -priced grain and oil prices of Russia and Ukraine means that the government will lose more foreign exchange to maintain the stability of domestic buyers; in the sense of public opinion, The price of prices brought about by the price break can be blamed on Russia -Ukraine's conflict instead of government decision -making.

Uncertain prospect

Before the price of cake bakery broke through the level, Lesi should be very clear about the price paid for the price of gasoline prices in November 2019 for gasoline prices.

At that time, the Rouhani government announced the price increase of gasoline overnight. The next day, hundreds of thousands of people in a number of major cities in the country, including the capital Tehran, went to the streets. In the suppression of the police department, more than 1,500 demonstrators were killed. Therefore, the "mild" image of Rouhani in domestic and foreign media was completely destroyed. The choice of Western and anti -Western routes is just a drama for the integration of politics and education. Iranian analysts believe that it is after the incident that the Trump administration saw the gap between the Iranian people and the government, moved to assassinate Sulemanni, and put it into implementation one and a half months later.

As participating in the suppression of the left wing of Iran in the 1980s, Lessey has always been known as the "sister -in -law" image in Western media. It should be in the social crisis that may cause the price of cakes. Take some "bottom measures".

On the issue of subsidies, in addition to the introduction of policies to force the underlying people to consume rationally, the living subsidies are not issued unconditionally for the military police, religious militia, and their families. For example, the Mazana family has a car and a house. Her husband's monthly income is about 3,000 yuan, but because it is for the Revolutionary Guards, the government still issues high living subsidies to the couple and the three children at home. When these measures can ensure that when the price of basic living materials is soaring, the social turmoil is caused by social turmoil, and the staff members of the strong department maintain their loyalty to the regime. On May 13th, the commander -in -chief of the Revolutionary Guard Salami admitted that Iran was experiencing a "difficult economic surgery" to encourage the army and militia to "help the public to improve the resistance and patience of resistance". The intention of providing military endorsements for the price break through the barrier is very obvious, and it is considered a ventilator for patients during the operation.

In addition, considering the accumulation of the accumulation of cakes after the price increase, the Laixi government also further integrated personal bank card information with the local goods stores. After the individual purchases more than 10 kilograms of cakes per month (Iran's unit weight is unified in the country, Standards), subsidies will not be purchased further.

At the same time, the Laici government also took care of the privileged class of the country. It terminated a luxury car import ban in April. The top elites of the country are united. This is a psychological intervention for the patient before surgery.

On May 12th, teachers in the Mali region of Kurdestistan protested low wages / free Iranian

However, this surgical surgery for economy still lacks anesthesia and analgesic drugs. After all, it has gradually canceled the dual -track system and basic materials import subsidies in itself. Faced with the price of meat and eggs that rolled continuously and the upcoming price of cakes, people in some areas have stepped on the street to protest, and their behavior is becoming more intense. Radent "let the priest's blood is halal" with religious anti -religious classes. Faced with the upgrading of the situation, the Laici government ordered foreign media reporters in Tehran to not come to the city interview, and on the day of the EU officials' visit to the Iraqi Nuclear negotiations, they arrested a pair of French elderly couple travelers on the grounds of incite the rebellion. The Iranian oppositions in exile seemed to smell the opportunity, equating the demonstration incident with the riot in 2019, and even began to discuss the issue of the power distribution of the power of the Essence of the Essence of the Emperor or the left of the left -wing people. However, if you carefully observe the composition and region of the demonstration crowd, you will find that the demonstrations are mainly concentrated in Hugistan Province and the Western Lord of the Zagros Mountains. The former is Arabs. Demonstrations have always occurred, the latter is Bachtial's national lifestyle, which has been conflicting with the central government since the 20th century. Judging from the current situation, the demonstration has not spread to large cities such as Tehran, Trazi, and Mashhad. Instead, it is a limited release of dissatisfaction with existing dissatisfaction in remote regions to use the price of cakes.

At present, the threat of street demonstration intensity to the Iranian system is still within the scope of elasticity that those who can tolerate power. The official media acknowledged that four demonstrators were killed in the conflict, but they did not define the dissatisfied people as enemies.

As Sarami said, Iran is lying on the operating table designed to be a strong country, but after the boots that do not know that the price of cakes break through the barrier, whether Iran can go down the operating table and after surgery. (Author / little druffer; blame / Zhang Xibei)

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