Observation | Left -wing leader Ripid adheres to, can Israel go out of Neitanahu loop?

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Observation | Left -wing leader Ripid adheres to, can Israel go out of Neitanahu loop?

2022-06-24 00:10:00 11 ℃

"I don't know what the significance of voting." On June 22, after seeing the news of the parliament disbanded again, Israeli college student Goldfab said helplessly.

"Elections, voting, elections, and voting ... Everyone has been annoyed in the past three years." Goldfab, who had been concerned about politics for a while, told Peng Mei News I don't know if it will be. "

In the past three years, Israel has experienced a series of political "roller coasters". From April 2019 to March 2021, Israel held four parliamentary elections within two years, but each parliament and government eventually dispersed because factions could not reach political compromise. Just one year after the government's current office, "surface peace" is broken again, and Israel will usher in the fifth parliamentary election in two years this year.

Due to the extension of the special legal status of Israel to be awarded by Jordan River on the west bank of the River, it was rejected by the opposition members of the opposition. The Israeli ruling alliance will submit the dissolution parliament bill. On June 22, the first round of the Israeli parliament passed the bill with an overwhelming majority.

If you pass through three rounds, the parliament will be disbanded, and Lapder will take over Belinet as the Prime Minister of the Guard Government until the next election will be held. Israel's law stipulates that it will take at least 90 days from the disbanding of the parliament to the new election. The Israeli media reported that the election will be held on October 25 or November 1 this year, but the specific date must be officially determined after the Israeli Central Election Commission is negotiated.

"BIBI" back to the spotlight

At the moment when voters were exhausted and members of the governing alliance were frustrated, at least one person was ecstatic about the new situation. At the age of 72, but the Israeli political veteran, Nataniah, who never exhausted, was caught up by the right wing and the middle left -wing alliance of Bernet and Lapid last year with a weak disadvantage. Now the chaos has given him the opportunity to revenge.

"We have prepared for the election, and we are sure we have the ability to win the election." Neitanahu said excitedly to Israel's "Land" on the 22nd. As the leader of the Israeli opposition party and the largest right -wing party, the leader of the Lepad Group, since the first time in 1996, Neitanahu has dominated Israeli politics for 25 years, of which 15 years have been the Prime Minister. Israel's most famous politician "BIBI" (Israel's nickname is Nitania Husk), and now returns to the spotlight.

Neitanahu's enthusiastic supporters believe that he is the only politician who is capable of leading Israel. Neitanahu often uses the image of this "savior" to stand on the extreme position of polarization and fight the opponent on the "national enemy "Tag of. However, Neitanahu, who is still being tried in the corruption case, is not welcomed by young people like Goldfhab. They accused them of weakening judicial independence, advocating right -wing extremism, and sacrificing the interests of Arab citizens to highlight Israel's " "Jewish identity" has eroded the country's democratic foundation.

Among the current government members, right -wing members have announced their plans to prevent Neitanahu from re -controlling power. "The current election is the result of a person's conspiracy, lies and destruction. His name is Neitanahu." "Israel is our homeland" party leader, Finance Minister Avigo Liberman Written. "New Hope" party leader and Minister of Justice Gidian Salar also said, "The goal of the upcoming election is clear: to prevent Neitanahu from re -control and slavery the country for personal interests."

However, the right wing against Neitanahu is currently in dilemma. Earlier, with the common goal of blocking Neitanahu, right -wing leaders such as Bentet and the middle left wing and the Arab party reached an agreement to form a ruling alliance, which also laid the foreshadowing for the rupture of the ruling alliance today.

Israel's latest public opinion survey shows that the camps of Neitanahu and its collaborators still cannot obtain 61 seats overwhelming in the next election. However, the "United Arab List Party" ("Ram Party") and members of the left -wing ruling alliance worried that Neitanahu may also complete a right -wing party before dissolving the three votes required by the parliament.

Observer believes that right wings may tend to unite each other, rather than entering a new election cycle. Whether it is a member of the governing alliance or the opposition, the right -wing members of the parliament have accounted for 80 seats in the 120 seats. If Neitaniah is persuading more right -wing members to form an alliance with Likardia Group, it is enough to set up a right -hand government in Israeli history.

Even with corruption trials, Neitanahu still has a large number of fans, which makes others feel puzzled. In fact, I am afraid that in Israel, I may not find a politician who has more wrists and experience than "BIBI". In 1996, he became the youngest prime minister in Israel's history, and now he is the longest -term office of Israel. Goldfab believes that although young people have been appealing, Israel has not yet appeared a young leader with enough strength.

According to the "Land News" article, Neitanahu has reached a normalized agreement with four Arab countries on his letty, and the relationship between Israel and the Arab world has also been improved. Before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, he experienced ten years of continuous continuous consecutive consecutive consecutive years before the outbreak. Economic Growth. At present, Neitanahu may no longer be "King Israel", but for many people, he is still "the king of exile". Lapid took over the duel burden

Bened, who used to be an ally, may not participate in the next election after his steps down, and the burden of duel with Neitanahu fell on Lapid. Since the end of last year's election, Lapid has established his position as a left -wing leader as a left -wing leader in Israel. He was born in the campaign to make himself a worldwide, freedom, and political mild camp. It is the opposite of all these values.

Like Neitanahu, the 58 -year -old Ripid is also playing a political card. He did not propose a specific political agenda. The confrontation between. It is expected that in the next election, Lapid will still play the slogan of "Everyone except Neganiahu, and everyone can do". His camp will still include "new hope" and "Israel is our homeland". Mid -right political parties with Neitanahu and extremely right -wing compromises.

"New Hope" and "Israel are our homes" are still trying to let the Israeli Parliament use them to propose to prevent Neitanahu's "defendant law" through them. Although the bill is now very likely, this attempt will be the highlight of the promotion of the future campaign in the Laipide camp.

However, even if Lapid won the election again, he still faces the same difficulties as he is now. He must negotiate with other small parties to form an alliance again, and eventually he may still fall into a cycle contradiction that cannot be reconciled.

In the 74 -year history of Israel, no political party has always won an absolute majority in parliament. Therefore, each party that is put on the election must form an alliance with other parties in order to make up for at least 61 seats. This also gives power to small political parties. Almost every time, one or even more "kings" will appear. The winners must negotiate with these parties to form a cabinet. If you fail to discuss, the next election will be repeatedly carried out like the two elections in April and September 2019.

"Our parliamentarians are imprisoned by their election system. They cannot rescue themselves from us, or more accurately, to rescue The structural root of the political crisis, not the current problems that exacerbate the crisis. "Israeli historian Avi Barurley recently wrote a pointed out.

Barurley said that the slogan of "anyone other than Neitanahu" will only worsen the crisis because it is not unstable, because it is Israel's proportional representative system. "This system is rare in other parts of the world. It is destined to form a fragile government. It depends on the existence of large political parties to form alliances. However, even if large parties enter the government, it is still difficult for the government to complete the four -year term. "

In Israel, only a political party of Likardia Group can be regarded as a large political party, but compared with other countries with other countries similar to the Israeli election system, the Likardian Group at best is only a medium -sized party. The political crisis in the past three years has caused Nataniho, but before that, almost every Israeli government was unstable and lack of cohesion.

"We need to change our election system, and we cannot restrict the free tailoring of members by increasing the threshold for election or formulating laws." Barri believes that a better system is to imitate most of the regional representative systems similar to the United Kingdom, that is, the winning party is a winning party. Provide sufficient seats in order to have a major seat in the parliament. This method can create two natural ruling parties and a more cohesive government.

Headache Bayden

When Neitanahu was the Prime Minister, he criticized Ripid "without real leadership and experience." In contrast, Neitanahu claims to be "international politicians" and Israel's "Mr. Safety". But now, as Laipid is about to become the guardian Prime Minister Bellford Street (the place where the Israeli Prime Minister's residence is located), the role of the two will be reversed. In particular, Ripid, as the Prime Minister, will welcome the US President Biden in July.

After the Israeli political situation changed, the United States remained cautious and visited to avoid public intervention in the internal affairs of Israel. U.S. Secretary of State Brills responded that Israel's current political situation does not affect Bayeon's plan to visit Israel, and the United States will still give Israel strong support.

U.S. State Department spokesman Prince also told reporters that "the strength of the United States does not depend on who is sitting in the oval office (US Presidential Office), nor does it depend on who is sitting in the position of Israeli Prime Minister."

The Neitanahu team is also working, hoping that July can meet with Bayeng as an opposition leader. It is not uncommon for the opposition to the President of the United States. But in any case, taking a photo with Biden will become Laipide's campaign plus points.

Unless there are some unpredictable crises, the United States is unlikely to become the core focus of Bayeng's trip to the Middle East in July. However, a report on the Carnegie International Peace Foundation states that the Israelites are very concerned about the ability of leaders and allies to maintain relationships. They will all become Laipid's remarkable results. Israel has entered the same "Neitaniah Cycle" as the previous two years, and the fifth election will still depend on whether there are enough people to return to "BIBI" to return. But for Biden, the return of Neitanahu will only make him more headache. The cunning Neitanahu may once again use the United States to promote a tough right -wing policy.

"Republican Party has defined itself as the chief partner of Israel, and Neitanahu already knows how to play this game. He may also get unexpected help." Crown Prince Mohammed also searched for a more friendly face in the White House. Like Neitanahu, he believes that it will be better than Biden with (former President of the United States) Trump. "