Ye Pengfei: Trump, if elected, would mean that Sarajevo arrives?

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Ye Pengfei: Trump, if elected, would mean that Sarajevo arrives?

2016-08-01 00:26:48 298 ℃

That "the most prominent example of the butterfly effect" theory, than the June 28, 1914 assassination occurred in Sarajevo. The Austro Hungarian Empire Prince Ferdinand of couples in the day being local nationalist youth assassination, leading to be bundled with a treaty of alliance of European powers have been declared war, causing a change in the history of the first World War. History scholars stone (Tobias stone judgment, human history is likely to is heading for another round of destructive development, similar to the death of a hundred years ago, caused by 17 million people in four years was mass murder, leads to more evil totalitarian political tragedy.

Stone says, because of the experience and knowledge of the public and the most ambitious to their parents and grandparents of the third generation, so unless the familiar with the history books, otherwise easily because of this limitation, making the same mistake to make destructive choices. He to the British off the European referendum as an example, but more worried about the rise of trump, the Republican candidate for president of the United States, because the same year the rise of Hitler and Mussolini is strikingly similar, by manipulating the public on the status of the extreme dissatisfaction, after seizing power in causing thousands of people died in the devastating consequences.

This is insightful observation, is now being gradually verified. Trump, who announced his candidacy for the election a year ago, has been officially crowned a candidate at the Republican National Convention in July 25th. The same day the Democratic Party held a National Party Congress, Party chairman Schultz for wiki leaks expose its secretly resist Hillary Clinton's opponent Sanders, in a piece of condemnation sound in a flurry to step down when, in 2008 and 2012 successfully predicted Obama was elected and re elected the pollster silver (Nate silver, has announced the amazing data: if on election day, the trump of Hillary Clinton's support rate for 57.5% to 42.5%, trump unprecedented to leading the 15 percentage points.

Silver said that after the Party Congress held a public opinion support stimulus effect, an average of 3 to 4 percentage points, so the 15 percentage points of the gap is not unusual. Moreover, Trump at the Party Congress before the polls close on the heels of Hilary. Some anti trump liberal opinion leaders, also seems to agree with this pessimistic analysis.

Clinton, a former cabinet minister of labor and economic Robert (Reich) believes that the appointment of the deputy candidates from Hilary, she did not understand the significance of this election. Riker pointed out that the presidential election has not the traditional left-right dispute, Hillary Clinton appointed Kane, a senator from Virginia, Tim Kaine served as deputy campaign, trying to win voters in the middle, is completely misjudged the situation. Lai Ke analysis, the election of the spindle system with the fight against the system voters of anger and revolt against the existing system is Trump's Populism and Saunders of the people's revolution in full swing of power. Hilary conservative Deputy candidate, did not respond to the demands of this grassroots rebel forces.

Another poll seems to have come true. Despite overwhelming support in women, blacks, Hispanics, young people all voters, Hillary in total voters nearly half the population -- white, especially non University Graduate white men, but significantly behind trump. For this group of voters of anxiety, Trump almost won their trust. He advocated the seclusion and the expulsion of illegal immigrants from Mexico, Muslims are prohibited from entry, overthrow the FTA, echo the political demands of the blue collar, white male voters. Their lack of protection of employment, income stagnation, change in the proportion of the population and race caused by their own mainstream social status of anxiety and anger, so that they are determined not to allow women to serve as president.

In opposition to trump the famous free school director Michael Moore, Moore's blog "trump will win five reasons", which a factor is "angry white male Beishuiyizhan". Moore said, the white male country since independence more than and 200 years of continuous rule of American history has ended. In the eight years after suffering a black president, they cannot imagine a woman in the White House by issue orders left and right. If the white man loses the white house again, the future population structure will make them in a permanent minority. So Trump openly discriminate against women's provocative language, will be able to inspire them to come out to vote.

In Moore's view, another factor that should not be underestimated is the voter's rebellious mentality. For example, he said, the average education level higher than the Minnesota voters. In 1998 to elect a political outsider, former professional wrestler van pull (Jesse Ventura) served as governor. Moore said, Minnesota voters are not stupid, but they can go ahead. Today, many voters are not agree with Trump, but conscious of the system will be a capricious. If coupled with those who believe that the Democratic Party headquarters Hilary, designed to sell Saunders angry voters, Hilary's situation will be more sinister.

Among all the speakers at the Democratic Party convention, the first lady, Michel, has a precise grasp of the deep meaning of the election. On her public opinion in the United States to marvel is handed down for a brief speech, Michelle and a deep analysis of the reasons why not let trump elected. She completely without naming names, criticism trump on behalf of hatred, and resort to Americans are optimistic to the national spirit, repeatedly reminded their vote, also includes the next generation will inherit the country. Michel said: "(the president must be) the person who knows the job and is serious about it. People who understand that the state affairs are not black or white...... Because once you have mastered the core of the nuclear weapon and command the armed forces, you can not be hasty decision. You can't tend to thin skinned and impetuous. You must be calm, restrained, and informative." Her criticism of the personality traits, are Trump to the world's general impression.

Stone is worried about the "Sarajevo moment", Trump is elected president could lead to a nuclear war. But at the moment before the vote, I am afraid there are a lot of American voters will embrace the "lesson system" mentality, and no one will believe that their votes will rewrite history. This may be why human beings are repeating the same historical tragedy.