Don barge Tiger: USA will usher in fifty years without political change?2016-08-02 01:13:33 311 ℃
Sanders achievement, not only as an informal party won the election in the Democratic Party close to 43 percent of the popular vote in support, before the Party Congress formally nominated, more polls show that if Saunders independent candidate in between Hillary Clinton, trump, Saunders started melee, people may be relatively more willing to choose Sanders president (third party support rate of Jiangshan, but Saunders slightly higher).
Because in many people's opinion, Hilary and trump are not good choices, as cast to the normal number of Saunders. Although to achieve this result, also in the face of election expenses, mobilization and organization, widespread public opinion support huge gap, but the third contender in theory likely to win, is already a hundred years ago things; even if it is to get a part of the electoral votes, is nearly 50 years ago.
That was George ·, who split from the Democrats in 1968; Wallace, 46 electoral votes, and Strom · in 1948; Thurmond, 39.
But the background is the traditional southern Democrats stubborn to maintain the policy of apartheid, and then mainstream Democrats gradually turned the identity of racial equality, the civil rights movement position incompatible, caused by the Democratic split. The other group is the conservative forces pushing the new party, in the traditional southern slave states to vote.
Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919) although dubbed the old prefix, all photos on the surface a face of vicissitudes, dignified old-fashioned, but in fact he 1901 successor to the president also dissatisfied with the 43 year old is in the history of the United States, the youngest president Kennedy (44 years old, Clinton 46 years old). He opened and shaped the modern United States, to promote the ideological trend of thought, so that he became one of the greatest presidents in the history of the United states.
And the only time it is possible to rely on the personal charm of the independent candidate was elected in 1912, Theodore · Roosevelt (old Roosevelt).
4 years ago, he gave up the pursuit of fame very influential third term, elected secretary of war Taft to succeed and success. But Taft took office back away from the old Roosevelt's progressive line, lost popular support more aroused the anger of the old Roosevelt.
From Africa and Europe during long distance travels back Theodore Roosevelt decided to run for president again, but as Taft had been the other Republican Party of faction elder brother for re-election and anger and lead his own supporters to reinvent the wheel, set up Progressive Party run for president.
Old Roosevelt's Progressive Party was also great in strength and impetus
Old Roosevelt by virtue of his personal reputation to win 88 electoral votes, playing the Republican and Taft only 8 votes. But due to the split in the Republican Party, snipe and the clam, soil, the Democratic chaos in the win, Wilson was 435 votes, become before and after 40 years only a Democratic president.
You know, old Roosevelt is one of the most highly rated and well recognized presidents in American history. Only in this way can people incursion single handedly made such achievements.
Old Roosevelt's 1912 campaign, though attempted but still legendary
Therefore, American electoral winner take all the presidential electoral system, bipartisan side monopoly of political situation, in addition to the party split the chance, 200 years to basically not be space for independent candidates.
In contrast, the independents Saunders from the start only 3% of the support rate, only a year of political propaganda, can have such a prospect theory (although he has abandoned the possibility), it is really quite heterogeneous in American politics.
Economic interpretation behind the phenomenon of Saunders
Regardless of the final outcome, the 2016 presidential election in the United States is bound to be a very special history. In both the democratic and Republican Party, there has been a strong foreign "anti establishment", and are popular with voters.
Sanders and trump, the two uninvited party outsider, left and right of the sudden appearance, from two directions reveals the United States and even the world.
The author believes that this adds up to two, can be summarized as fifty years without the change of American politics.
This article first said Saunders this side.
America is undoubtedly one of the richest countries in the world, and one of the biggest gaps in the rich and poor. The richest one percent have more than ninety percent of the bottom layer.
Not to mention the top1%, now 0.1% of the top rich accumulation of wealth (red line), and has fast catching up on the bottom 90% of total wealth (green line). You know, the last time a similar situation, or in the gold and the Great Depression era.
GDP growth does not benefit the underlying population, the median household income from the beginning of 70s and 80s will be caught in a stagnant. Now the America society has been difficult to find that the "USA dream" full of youthful spirit.
The "median" changes in family income situation, the blue line is the growth of the value of the, the blue line is after deducting the currency depreciation factors changes, visible after deducting inflation, since 1973 began almost no growth.
90% in the middle and lower income over the past thirty years, the actual growth of 15% at the same time, top 1% revenue growth of nearly 150%
Top 1% plus investment income, household wealth grew more rapidly, far behind the top 5%, top 10% and bottom 90%
At the same time, wealth is still flowing from the general public to the richest people in the hands of the transfer.
Financial crisis swept away the general public savings, so that they lost their jobs, unemployed workers and infrastructure deserted, student loan has not yet, displaced people in the bottom, in awe before the high medical education and living expenses, but manufacturing crisis financial capitalists has not been blow.
Since the crisis, the Obama administration will rescue the city measure to "large and fail" (too big to fail) and blood transfusion of large banks of up to $700 billion, plus tax, interest rates and quantitative easing, fiscal and monetary policies, Wall Street to survive the crisis. 2014, the banking industry profits even reached a record $152 billion, the people are still struggling in the crisis.
According to the U.S. Department of labor data, from 2008 to 2012, the United States the richest 20% of household income increased by an average of $8358 per year, compared with the same period the poorest 20% of the family income fell by $275 a year.
Quantitative loose print out of all the money went to the hands of the rich.
The richest 1% and the bottom 99% families 2009-2014 annual income comparison
Since the financial crisis, the richest one percent of the population accounted for 58% of the income of the whole society, and the remaining ninety-nine percent to get 42%. 2014 American households in the income after inflation fell 6.5% compared to 2007.
If in the top1% rich are further subdivided, you will find one of them to get the growth of most is the top 0.01%, is one of America's wealthiest.
One then the cream of the crop, top 0.01% rich occupied the major U.S. wealth
All this let the American people feel that enough, so only a few years ago, "occupy Wall Street" movement. With such a strong dissatisfaction of the public opinion, has been at any time and the old man Saunders.
A play of Saunders
The people on the economic income, frustration and anger, Saunders at the age of 74 to become the cornerstone of A new force suddenly rises.
Indeed, he and Trump both played angry cards. But and fierce perverse and some of the sensationalistic trump completely different, he raised is the banner of "progressive", calling on the pursuit of political pure brightness and economic justice.
Saunders's vision for the people to portray the people's livelihood is:
Investment 1 trillion dollars; reconstruction of the U.S. infrastructure, a substantial increase in employment opportunities; public university tuition free of charge; the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 per hour to $15. On the basis of Obama's health care reform, the establishment of a better national health insurance system.
Here side painted many of the "beautiful blueprint", no doubt the people of low income is a huge attraction.
As far as the sources of funding, in addition to cutting military spending, save money, Saunders specifically aimed at the Wall Street as the representative, including the rich class, including sichuan:
To levy heavy taxes on the rich, including inheritance tax and Wall Street financial speculation tax, improve supervision and tax rate of big businesses and financial institutions, against big business tax avoidance problem, limit the outsourcing of multinational companies.
In addition, but also to combat electoral politics consortia black, dismantling big financial institutions against financial speculation lest its speculative drag on the economy, to rectify the United States international trade policy, including trade policy toward China.
These together, that is, Saunders's campaign slogan "one can believe in the future" (future to believe in a).
Saunders's claims to the current U.S. society, the existence of many of the key ills, reflecting the people's dissatisfaction with the reality, on behalf of the U.S. bottom of the people rather than the interests of large companies.
Although these claims may not be practical, but this is the economic problems in the tired, disgusted with the big companies and now the government has done, hoping to change the status quo of many of the underlying people caused a strong response and resonance.
Candidate to create a donation record
However, as we all know, the United States presidential election must eventually become a huge burning game. Because of the advertising campaign, organization and employment campaign are in need of money.
No doubt, in this session of all candidates, Saunders is the most radical and radical of the concept of the left, one of the most idealistic, but also one of the least personal property.
A democratic foreign households, no fame, no contacts, no financial, no institutional support, there is no age advantage, but also by the pro establishment difficult or even put up barriers to trade. " Even he from began announced to the enterprise or individual large donations, reject any from Wall Street, the petrochemical industry and the medical profession's political contributions. This is quite rare in the history of American elections.
In contrast, Hillary Clinton through various controversial, moneybags consortium donations, to raise $280 million in campaign funds.
She also has the full support of the big media and the party system, why will be a poor old man forced the plight of the poor again and again?
Because Saunders also raised 220 million!
Surprisingly, Sanders campaign funds, most are from scattered individual donors, also created the history of the United States of America's political fundraising record -- about 8 million Americans out of his own pocket to help his campaign per capita only donate the $27.
Sanders who is not well-off or no savings of small donations, people believe that their day's meal, down, donated to the Sanders can express their dissatisfaction with the status quo, and Sanders with side by side, to challenge the status quo.
Compared with other candidates obtained from large enterprises, where large political contributions, the $27 donations was given special -- the voice of the people.
This sense of participation and justice, so many people have become loyal followers of Bernie, more than 13 million people led to the democratic election to vote for him. He won 23 of the 50 states in the United States and 1846 delegates. Without the support of the super delegates, Hilary won't get the votes needed to get the nomination.
The young man behind Saunders
Especially unusual, sanders (1941) is bigger than Hillary Clinton (1947) and trump age (1946), and he alone can burn the "millennials" passion, by young people especially college students warm follow.
Saunders in 18-24 year old young people in the support rate of up to 27%, compared to Hilary's 65% can be said to be the trend of the rolling. This age group is the so-called Millennium generation, corresponding to China's 90.
The millennial generation during the growth period, through the 9· 11 incident, the United States intervention in the war in the Middle East, at the same time, the government deficit rising, the huge gap between rich and poor, and rising tuition fees, University and after graduation and touch on the has yet to truly out of the economic crisis; they found their future life is hard, even more than their parents more difficult.
Youth unemployment is two times the total unemployment rate, they lack of technology and experience, in the competition with the more mature candidates at a disadvantage, it is difficult to find a match to work.
While higher education is better than others in the employment situation, they must also face high student loans, an important social problem in the United States.
More than 70% college students who graduated from the back of the student loan, in 2015 the average student debt of more than $35 thousand, while the entire U.S. student loan size reached $1 trillion and 200 billion.
Even if the university graduates, the employment situation is still not optimistic. The financial crisis of the trauma has not disappeared, they are often forced to accept low paid and part-time.
This makes it easier for them to accept the idea of democratic socialism promoted by Saunders. Especially his central policy, a free public university program, has a high support rate for his young voters.
Anti Wall Street, the welfare state, these are the core elements of the Saunders to attract the basic disk. Especially to young people as the main population in Silicon Valley, many of them believe that, the world changes, Bernie represents the future, is the end of crony capitalism.
In this election, Sanders from a little-known state senator to thein the times weekly, a phenomenal character, social media is an important driving force behind. And a composed of more than 200 programmers, developers and designers of loose support organization, the old Sanders campaign network technology backing group.
These volunteers, many from the major technology companies and technical personnel, also not missing at the beginning of the elite of the business elite, they use spare time trying to Bernie Ecclestone's campaign app update function, analysis of email data, access social networking platform, the Jeanberg the maverick before old parties actually have a code farming Army and various online activities, organizing rallies, campaign products sales on the Internet in full swing.
From small donations to the line of mobilization, Bernie young grassroots supporters broke the power of people sit up and take notice.
After all, if a person does not believe the words before the age of thirty, he will have no conscience."
Political interpretation behind the phenomenon of Saunders
Of course, Saunders's ideas of these improvements, if placed in Europe is equivalent to a more moderate left. But in the capital of the country, and these claims is a bombshell.
Originally, the 74 year old non partisan independent, his thoughts, ideas and mainstream American political views out of tune. In the United States two party politics, many years and his home state of Vermont, Vermont, his many years of political philosophy as the same, unknown.
But since the financial crisis, the bottom of the people, vulnerable groups for a reasonable distribution of the reasonable demands of wealth, actually pushed him to the Democratic primary eye of the storm.
He was finally able to to the middle and lower classes of people criticized capitalist greed, emphasizing the social justice, on these core issues very clearly passed their own policy ideas, has great appeal to the general public.
Saunders's rise, not only to allow voters to know him, a good science of his democratic socialist ideology, but also to the word "socialism" in the United states. In the past, who was put on the top of the "red hat", just like the scarlet letter was written on the disgrace of general.
And it has to be said, "grass roots" Saunders's personal charm is better than that of Hilary and the rich. Sanders in the debate with a large range of movement, anger and aggressive, hoarse voice total like in the roar, but a strong anger comes with sincere and trustworthy sense. Especially for those young people a cavity blood.
As is known to all, he adhered to the idealism of a lifetime, in full exchange of interests in political circles in the silt but don't dye, happy poor life; and various left and right politicians dispute debate, refused to compromise, not blending any interest group. These personal integrity in the United States political circles, and his political views, as very different and precious.
And unlike rough perverse, longer than provocative right-wing businessman trump, Sanders left, although in exposing problems of American society, but he did not play the populist, fear card, while always adhere to the "fair fight for justice".
As in the Democratic Party election TV debate, for the first time "the mail door" naturally become parties fierce attacks on Hillary Clinton's best handle. But Sanders did not take this against her, "outspoken" -- the problems she has a clear explanation of the there is no need to hold on to.
Not only do not attack rival deep black spots, but also to help her stop gun! He said he would not be in the TV commercials and opponents of the boring war of words, he hoped that some of the major issues related to the people's livelihood, the serious debate.
(Sanders can think the second "mail", Hillary and Democrats on the senior management dark music, trying to more sinister Sanders? Isn't this the story of the modern version of the farmer and the snake? Before and after cause and effect comparison, can really understand the Saunders supporters out of anger.
Many voters for his stick to discuss issues, to personal attack opponents man's noble deeds appreciated for his or her moral sense of respect, more will he regarded as with traditional adding insult to injury type politicians different candidates.
Sanders sincere, dozens of years as one day on the principles of fairness and justice to, empathize with the well-being of vulnerable groups, and let a lot of political apathy of the people, feel a responsibility to and he fought the sense, sense of participation and a sense of urgency.
U. S. presidential election turnout in recent years has been hovering around 55%, for a lot of bored of the political parties of the boring voters who are the same, anyway, who would not vote. And Saunders has no doubt inspired a lot of political enthusiasm for independent voters, prompting them to re-enter the political life.
Obviously, as long as the human society is not fair, there will be a wide range of social problems, there will be the idea of the growth of the left soil.
And as long as the problems disclosed by Saunders continue, in four years, eight years and even longer in the United States after the election, people will continue to see new faces appear Saunders.
To sum up, that is, the call of Saunders, to launch a "change in the American political and social revolution, and to let the revolution continue."".
Left and right, the United States can Saunders and trump appear to be so close to the presidency of the alternative candidates, has indicated that today in the United States and the United States before the different, the inside is the result of a difficult to simply the problem of bridging, also calls for some fundamental changes.
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