Will the Third World War start here?

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Will the Third World War start here?

2022-06-24 06:04:12 6 ℃

Can Kalinrad, this Russian flying land in Europe, will it become a "gunpowder barrel" that trigger the third world war?

This has become one of the most worried issues in European media.

Because Lithuania banned Russia's "sensitive goods" transit to Kalinrad, Russia has rebounded strongly.

The Kremlin spokesman Peskov warned that Lithuania's practice is "unprecedented", and Russia will take measures to take measures to "make the Baltic coastal countries feel pain".

As a party that provokes this contradiction, Lithuania is pretending to be innocent on the one hand, claiming that this is the EU's sanctions on Russia; on the other hand Friendly action.

As the allies in NATO, the United States, Britain, and Germany have stated their support to support the measures taken by Lithuania to call on Russia to treat them calmly. The United States even said, "Our commitment to Article 5 of NATO is not broken."

In the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, is it really possible for Kaliningrad to trigger a world war?

1

After calling Lithuania and the European Union's diplomatic representatives in Russia two days ago, Russian domestic public opinion was discussing what means to respond to Lithuania's "blockade of Kalinenrad" and can hurt Lithuania.

Russia's "Viewpoint" published an article entitled "Russia's response will cause a heavy blow to Lithuania's economy" on the 23rd, saying that due to Lithuania's operation, the Kaliningrad area was blocked. Some important materials are prevented from transporting from Russia into Kalinerad.

At an informal level, some people have talked about Lithuania that may quickly cut off the natural gas supply to Russia. The region provides natural gas through Minsk-Verxis-Calline Galinenrador pipeline. How will Russia respond?

According to the Viewpoint, the anti -Russian operation of Lithuania has gone too far. Lithuania described this situation as "execution of the European Union's sanctions against Russia", but Moscow believes that this is a more severe restriction on Russia. Moscow asked immediately to cancel illegal restrictions, but Lithuania turned a deaf ear to this.

Therefore, Russia will take retaliation measures, and its response will not be diplomatic. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zaharava has stated that Russian departments have currently formulated response measures. Sergei Kantlayevyev, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of Russian Energy and Financial Research Institute, said that if there is a problem with railway and land transportation, it will have to pass the sea.

But the risk of energy blockade facing Kalinrad is even more serious. If the transportation of natural gas pipelines is stopped, the Russian side will arrange liquefied natural gas to the Galinrad area in a timely manner. In addition, Haiyun Coal to Kaliningrad is not a problem at all.

Many Russian media said that so far, Moscow has always maintained a "kindness" attitude towards Lithuania. For example, Lithuania products still appear on Russian shelves. If Russia takes retaliatory sanctions on Lithuania, the economic and budget of the opposing Potia will have practical impact.

Russian media believes that the first thing that Moscow can do is to refuse to purchase Lithuania products and prohibit them from re -exporting through other EU countries, so that Lithuanian goods cannot enter the Russian market through neighboring Latvia.

Second, Moscow may ban Lithuania from purchasing sensitive products from Russia. Moscow may follow Russian Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd.'s sanctions on Poland, and opposite Pacific Energy Corporation imposed sanctions. Even if the Russian company wants to provide electricity, natural gas or oil to Lithuania, it needs to be permitted by the Russian government.

Kantlayev believes that if Moscow's current response is weak, it may arouse more imitation of Eastern European countries, and some potential "opponents" also attempts to perform similar restrictions on Russia.

Why is Russia's countermeasures against Lithuania may be better than adopting "revenge sanctions" by the entire EU? Russian media believes that because the Baltic countries are more difficult to resist the blow in the relationship with Russia, their economy is still largely linked to Russia, and these countries are one of the weakest economies in the European Union.

Russia's "True News" said on the 23rd that the Blog of the European Union and Lithuania to Kalinrad made Russia have sufficient "declaration of war". Russia is discussing measures to block the implementation of Lithuania airspace. Lithuania is also worried about being "closed the sky" by Russia.

According to the analysis of the "Voice of Germany" website, Russia blocked Lithuania airspace, which will be regarded as "de facto declaration war". Lithuania is a member of NATO. NATO will have to respond to military means.

Others believe that Russia can first try to occupy the Suvauki Corridor (located between Kalinenrad and Belarus) to lift the blockade of the region. But in this case, NATO will have a reason to directly intervene in the conflict of Ukraine.

Russian military expert Knotov believes that these measures are more targeted at the outbreak of hostile operations, rather than Russia's response to the trade blockade of the Kalinrad region. At present, Russia also has other chips, such as trade sanctions and transit restrictions on goods in the European Union and Lithuania. Behind the implementation of Lithuania's implementation of air blockade, it will only provoke Russia to adopt military operations.

Knotov said that in response to Vilnius' provocation, Russia and Belarus may block Lithuania to block Lithuania, so that Lithuania is completely in the blocked economy.

Another Russian military expert Leonkov said Lithuania blocked Kalinenrad, "it is tantamount to NATO's aggression against Russia represented by Lithuania." Lithuania did not dare to stop Russia from traveling from the sea to Kalinrad, because it was tantamount to declared war on Moscow. He believes that there are many economic means in Russia that can affect Lithuania, but they should not be gradually adopted, but should be adopted at one time in order to have an impact effect.

Earlier, some Russian media said that Moscow had several other countermeasures to Lithuania: do not recognize Lithuanian independence; withdrawing from the EU's agreement with the EU; Lithuania is required to be returned to the land of Clapedda, which was occupied by the former Soviet Union; The Russian energy system is decoupled.

At present, Russia has announced a military exercise in Kalinenrad, and the Russian Baltic Fleet will conduct missiles and artillery forces exercise. From the perspective of exercise, about 1,000 Russian officers and soldiers and more than 100 weapons and special equipment from missiles and artillery forces participated in the exercise.

2

In response to Russian warnings, Lithuanian President Sata said in an exclusive interview with Reuters on the 22nd that after the country's prohibited goods from the EU's sanctions from crossing its territory into Garinrad Forms retaliation.

In this video interview, Natasida said: "We are ready to cope with some unwavering actions from Russia, including Brell power system cutting or other actions."

Although the Baltic three countries joined the European Union more than ten years ago, they have relying on Russia's power system more in the energy system so far. The Brell system is a power network shared between Russia, Belarus and Baltic countries. However, Lithuania was installed with power transmission equipment with Poland last year to access the European power grid.

Lithuania said that this is for preparation for today's situation.

Sata claims that he does not believe that Russia will challenge Lithuania in military, because Lithuania is different from Ukraine and is a NATO member country. He also defended Lithuania's behavior again in the interview, emphasizing that this was a decision on the EU level. "This has nothing to do with bilateral relations between Russia and Lithuania."

On June 18, Lithuania announced an effective ban, which no longer allowed the EU to transport goods on Russian sanctions to Kalinrad, including coal, metal, building materials, high -tech products, etc. By the 21st, the person in charge of the news department of Galinen Grade said that Lithuania will ban the scope of transit transportation from railway transportation to highway transportation.

Sata believes that the content of the European Commission explained to the Russian authorities that the content of sanctions will be a very good measure to eliminate misunderstandings, and it may dispel some tensions that appear now. The upgrading of tensions is not good for both parties.

Obviously, Naisa is also very guilty, worried about making the situation big.

Boerley, a senior representative of the EU diplomacy and security policy, has explained the decision of Lithuania that although "has always worried about Russia's revenge", Lithuania is "innocent". Berrely said: "Lithuania does not adopt any unilateral state restrictions, and only enforces the EU sanctions."

However, Berrely did not relax against the cancellation of "banning Kalinrad".

Now Lithuan dares to do so, of course, someone is behind her back.

U.S. State Department spokesman Price said on the 21st reporter: "We support our NATO ally and we support Lithuania." He also emphasized that the United States' commitment to Article 5 of NATO -attack on a country will constitute The attack on all countries cannot be broken. "

Moreover, Pryce also said that the United States welcomes Lithuania and other countries to take "unprecedented economic measures" against Russia in Russia's military operations in Ukraine. When asked about Russia's statement, Price said, "We don't plan to guess Russia's swords or virtual momentum, and don't even want to give it extra play time."

The provocative meaning is very strong.

In addition, the British Foreign Minister Tellas stated on the 22nd through the social media platform: "Britain fully supports Lithuania to stop restricted goods from Russia in its domestic transit. In the face of Russia's actions, we must maintain strong and challenge these unreasonable threats. "

The German side has also warned Russia not to reflect the "freight disputes" leading to Kalinrad. "We call on Russia to take any measures that violate international law." Said the German federal government spokesman. "

Herbetet believes that Lithuania takes these actions in the EU's sanctions against Russia. Only certain products (about 50%) are affected by sanctions and no one is sanctioned. "Therefore, we clearly reject Russia's announcement of countermeasures."

In response to Lithuania and the United States, Earlier on the 22nd, Peskov warned that Russia was discussing retaliatory measures to enter Russia through Kalinenrad's prohibition of EU sanctions through Kalinrad. Peskov did not explain the consequences of these measures in detail, and said that Moscow's response did not have an exact timetable.

From a geographical point of view, Kalinrad has a very important strategic value for Russia.

Kaliningrad is an isolated port city: located on the east coast of the Baltic Sea, Poland to the south, Lithuania to the east, and Lithuania to the north. There are two main channels between Kaliningrad and Russia, one is a railway, entering Karinrad from Russia through Belarus and Lithuania from Russia. Ningrad. As a flying place, Kaliningrad and the Russian capital Moscow are about 680 miles apart. Regarding how Russia (former Soviet Union) got this flying ground, "Make up One Knife" once wrote this aspect in detail.

From a military perspective, Kalinerad is the only port that is not freezing in the Baltic Sea throughout the year, and it is also an important base for the Russian Navy fleet. Its strategic position allows Russian ships to go through the Arctic Ocean. This is the route used by the Baltic fleet from the port of St. Petersburg.

At the same time, the existence of Kalinrad means that Russia can stop military forces in the "rear" of NATO. Moreover, Russia can also deploy nuclear weapons in the region.

In March of this year, Russia ordered nuclear forces to be in a high degree of alert state in response to the continuous increase in NATO countries. The short -range or medium -range ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads are deployed there to crack down on European goals.

According to people familiar with the matter, Russia has deployed the S-400 air defense missile system and the "Iskander missile" ballistic missile system with the S-400 air defense missile system and the loaded nuclear warhead.

3

Zhang Hong, the Eastern European and Central Asian Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the "Make -ups" that Russia and the NATO countries led by the United States have indeed triggered some concerns around the new disputes of Kalinrad. Especially under the current situation of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Russia and NATO's new contradictions are superimposed, which makes everyone feel that the situation is difficult to estimate and control. However, the possibility of direct war between the two sides is not much possible.

Zhang Hong believes that Lithuania banned some Russian goods from transit to the transit of Russian goods to Kalinrad, which is actually one of the EU sanctions on Russia. Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the European Union has conducted several rounds of sanctions on Russia. In the fifth round of sanctions, Garrinrad had exempted from Garyinrad. There was no exemption in the sixth round of sanctions announced in early June.

Therefore, Lithuania emphasized that this move was not its own individual sanctions, but to fulfill the EU sanctions, and also deliberately consulted the opinions of the European Commission before the announcement.

The goods that are currently affected by the ban are mainly coal, metal, building materials and advanced technology -related items. Other passengers and goods that are not restricted by the EU are not affected. Among the embargo goods, the most influence on Galinrad is cement and steel, and there will be some difficulties in the short term after being banned.

However, Galnin Georian Governor Antidong Alhanov also said that it will be banned from being prohibited from the transit of Lithuania. Russia has also increased the frequency of maritime freight from Leninrad to Kalinrad. Since the population of Kalinrad is only 1 million, the amount of goods transported through railways between Russia is not too large every year. Overall, difficulties cannot be overcome.

Compared with economic losses, the Russian side regards this as a provocative and diplomatic contempt for Russia. It is a threat and obstruction of the normal economic activities between it and Kalinrad, so the response is very strong. On the one hand, Russia's response is to avoid the emergence of similar incidents, and on the other hand, it is also hoped to win the exemption position in the European Union for Garyinrad.

Zhang Hong believes that although some people in Russia have military proposals, Russia really adopts military operations and is unlikely to have further confrontation with NATO. Russia does not want to have a positive conflict with NATO in terms of willingness or ability. After the Russian and Ukraine conflict, there was actually a tacit understanding between Russia and NATO, that is, there was no positive conflict and nuclear war between the two sides.

From the perspective of the United States, as the leader of the Western alliance and the leader of NATO, it will definitely reiterate its obligation to the member states in this case to maintain the stability of the Western alliance and the reliability of NATO security mutual trust. However, no matter from the perspective of the United States and the European Union, or Lithuania, I hope that this is a friction within the scope of controlling and anti -sanctions, curbing and curbing, not a hot war.

Moreover, the EU's response was relatively milder, and even showed the idea of ​​being willing to communicate and dialogue with Russia. Because the European Union obviously does not want to continue to intensify the tension with Russia in the current atmosphere of Russia and Ukraine, creating new troubles and contradictions. Instead, the EU's attitude allows the two sides to solve a certain possibility of contradictions through diplomatic means.

In addition, Kalinrad belongs to "flying land" and is relatively special. In the process of joining the European Union, the European Union and Russia have had bilateral agreements, promising to facilitate the circulation and commodity transportation between Russia and Kalinrad. From this perspective, there is a possibility of diplomatic solutions around the contradiction between the two sides around Kalinrad.

This article is transferred from [Make up one knife]; writes/Hu Yidao & pigeons