China's smart car "hard" injury

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China's smart car "hard" injury

2021-11-26 12:04:33 11 ℃

Author: Wen Yu Editor: Small City Girl

The curve is not allowed to take a car, then turn the way to overtake.

Electricization The body of the Chinese and foreign automotive industry is basically flat, and in the era of intelligence, China has already taken the world. The market share of the Chinese market has reached 43.3% in the first three quarters of this year, and the fundamental reason is the rise of intelligent electric vehicles year-on-year.

In the field of smart driving solutions and vehicle factory, it has born a group of companies that walk in the world.

Baidu Apollo has the world's largest automatic driving open platform, which has almost included all mainstream automakers, providing automatic driving solutions for related companies.

At the whole vehicle, the autonomous brand has greatly improved the intelligent configuration, the new models such as Wei, Xiaopeng and the Great Wall generally equipped with high-altitude calculation platform, of which the bicycle of the ET7 is even as high as 1061TOPS, as contrast, Tus The force of the pulled FSD HW3.0 is only 144tops.

of the industry runs Fast, relying on the government.

At the World Intelligent Net Commission in November, my country issued "Intelligent Network Automobile Technology Road Map 2.0" planning, proposed planning for the development of smart cars. Specifically divided into three phases: 2020-2025 as the development period, 2026-2030 is the promotion period, 2031-2035 is mature.

In addition, a clear development goal has been given, and the sales volume of new car sales in 2025 and L3 level will reach 50%, and more than 70% in 2030. By 2025, the domestic PA level and CA-level intelligent network vehicle sales accounted for more than 50% of the total number of vehicles, and the new car assembly rate of the C-V2X terminal will reach 50%.

According to the data of the Preview Industry Research Institute, in 2020, the smart auto market has reached 255.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.3%.

▲ Data Source: Prospect Industry Research Institute

In the next few years, under the guidance of the government and the industry itself, the slope of the smart car growth curve will change , the construction of the building, the construction of the industrial chain. But frustrating is the serious imbalance between China's vehicle industrial status and parts in parts.

[Powerful foreign capital]

The smart car age, the automatic driving and smart cockpit is the main link of the user experience gap, which is automatically driving is "core proposition". However, the automatic hardware industry chain will be peeled enough to find that it is within the control of foreign capital.

The automatic driving domain controller is the core components of smart cars. The world's face-free Tier1 giants are basically layout, such as Wei Shi Tong Drivecore, Bosch Dasy, Mainland Group ADCU, etc.

Further expand, the technical critical key to the domain controller is to have a strong support.

The ECU era, the MCU chip is the main force, the supplier is mainly the giants such as NXP, Texas Instruments and Risa semiconductors, and there is no matter what to do.

After entering the DCU era, the computing processing complexity is increased in an exponential stage, so the MCU chip is replaced by the SOC chip. The SoC chip integrates CPU, AI chip, NPU, where AI chips are core.

At present, the automatic driving AI chip is basically controlled in British Weida and Mobileye, especially the British Weida, the technical path is very radical, its Xavier chip, orin chip is the highest production chip in the same time. In contrast, domestic Huawei, skyline, black sesame, is still in its infancy, and the market share is minimal.

To make the car owns the capacity of positioning, path planning, decision-making control, external camera, millimeter wave radar, laser radar, etc., has become the standard of Smart car.

The image sensor is the core of the car camera, and the current car mainly uses an image sensor (CIS) based on CMOS technology. Among them, the US Enterprise On Semi (Anshen Mei) is the absolute leader in the Car camera CMOS industry, and the market share is close to 50%.

Domestic car camera manufacturers are mainly non-listed companies such as Beijing Jingsu Heng, Guangzhou, an electronic, and the competitiveness is relatively weak.

The SCALA laser radar of the laser radar, Valeo (French Auto Parts Supplier) is a first quantified product in the industry. According to Yole Développement, the 2020 global laser radar manufacturer is ranked, Valeo's market share is about 28%. , Ranked first, and Huawei row in the world, but the market share is only 3%.

The millimeter wavelet field is more concentrated, and the top five companies such as Bosch, mainland, and electricity are monopolized by 75% of the market share.

Due to hardware such as camera, laser radar, millimeter wave radar, the number of perceived layer sensors has increased significantly, so a higher requirement is proposed for data transmission and transmission rate, further promoting the volume price of the connector.

The amount of bicycle on the traditional fuel car is about 1,000 yuan, but the amount of bicycle of smart electric vehicles can reach 3000-5,000 yuan.

But unfortunately, such a large incremental market is also controlled by foreign capital, three giants Tyco Electronics, Anfano and Moshi City share 35%, Japan 崎 (Yazaki), Jae (avionics), JST Waiting for companies also have a certain market share. In contrast, only the mainland of China is only the top ten of the global connector, and the market share is only 4.6%.

The high point of the smart chassis is also occupied by foreign companies. The suppliers of the current line control system are mainly Bosch, mainland, and EF, etc., including Bosch accounts for absolutely leading market position.

Comprehensively, the interest rights of the smart car hardware industry chain are almost all in the hands of foreign investment. Is there a position in the edge of local companies? Is it completely opportunistic?

In fact, it is not.

[Turning opportunity]

The reason why local companies also have an opportunity to turn over, a very important reason is that the automotive supply chain is facing historic remodeling and shuffling.

The fuel truck era, Japan, the United States, and the Host Factory have almost all fixed parts supporting enterprises.

For example, the main supplier of Germany main plant is Bosch, mainland, and EF, the main supplier of Mirai Main Factory is Lier, Jiang Sen, Delphi, Electricity, Hitachi, Aixin, etc., mainly for Japanese main units.

The essence of smart cars is ICT, using the current prevalence, the direct consequences of this change is to crush the traditional supply chain pattern, and many host plants began to bypass traditional Tier1, with the original Secondary suppliers directly cooperate. The most typical is British Weida, and the company has established cooperative relationships with many heads.

This means that the traditional foreign Tier1 spends a long-covered monopoly barrier established in decades will be weakened in the intelligent era, and the new entrant has a chance of winning.

More importantly, China has strong strength in the ICT field, and related companies have cross-border smart electric vehicles, such as Huawei, OPPO Incoming Smart Cockpit, Alibaba, Tencent, etc. Infinitives in the car, which is subject to local hardware suppliers Produce a tone effect.

At the same time as the industrial chain faces the shuffle, technology is still iterative, which also gave the postparte opportunity. With an example, the core of the SOC chip is GPU, but the GPU cost is high and power consumption, so it is now introduced into customized FPGA chips and ASIC chips.

FPGA is a semi-type chip, compared to the GPU has a significant performance and energy consumption advantage, but the mass production cost is high; the ASIC is a customized chip, which requires customized research and development, and has a longer R & D cycle and due to large-scale flow slices. Low. At the same time, overseas suppliers have higher development costs, and the right to speak, not necessarily cooperating with the vehicle factory for customization development, but the independent supplier is easy to compromise due to the relatively backwardness of technology and scale, and R & D service response quick.

If the software algorithm technology route is standardized, the ASIC in one integrated and cost advantage will form an alternative effect on the GPU. Native enterprises can set up links in advance to prepare for future transitions.

From the global perspective, in order to enhance its own competitiveness, the vehicle factory often needs to make differentiated advantages in the experience. In many links, suppliers need highly flexible custom development capabilities, domestic companies can fully demonstrate the ability to quickly and flexibly .

Finally, the R & D investment and cost stress in the whole vehicle in recent years have increased significantly, especially in the last year's raw materials, the cost of the car is sharply increased. BYD's gross profit margin has declined for four consecutive months, in which the domestic supplier's price advantage will be amplified.

Half ninety, China standing in the high point of smart cars, but the subsequent troops have a long way to climb. China is the world's largest car consumer country, occupying nearly one-third of the global market, and a huge domestic demand market provides enterprises with a huge depth of depth of depth.

The road is twisted, but the future is finally bright.

Disclaimer

This paper relates to the content of the listed company, based on the personal analysis and judgment of information (including but not limited to interim announcements, regular reports, and official interactive platforms) based on its legal obligation, information or opinion in the text The market value observation is not responsible for any action due to adoption of this paper.

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